ANALYSIS OF CBRT MONETARY POLICY PRESS RELEASES BASED ON COSINE SIMILARITY, TOPIC MODELING, AND SENTIMENTAL TONE

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 67, 217 - 236

Mehmet Fatih Görgün , Erhan Demireli

Öz

This study examines the monetary policy press releases issued by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) between 2006 and 2024 using text analysis methods In the study, cosine similarity, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) subject modeling and sentiment analysis were performed using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. The cosine similarity analysis measures the consistency of the content between releases, while the LDA method identifies the thematic structure and key topics of the announcements. Sentiment analysis reveals the positive, negative, and neutral tone of the texts. The findings indicate that the CBRT's communication strategy evolves based on economic conditions and aims to guide market expectations. This study contributes to the literature by evaluating the economic impact of the language used in central bank communications.

Anahtar Kelimeler

CBRT, Cosine Similarity, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, Sentiment Analysis, Natural Language Processing (NLP), Central Bank Communication

TCMB PARA POLİTİKASI BASIN DUYURULARININ KOSİNÜS BENZERLİĞİ, KONU MODELLEMESİ VE DUYGU TONU TEMELİNDE ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'nın (TCMB) 2006-2024 yılları arasında yayımladığı para politikası basın duyurularını metin analizi yöntemleriyle incelemektedir. Çalışmada doğal dil işleme (NLP) teknikleri kullanılarak kosinüs benzerliği, Gizli Dirichlet Tahsisi (LDA) konu modellemesi ve duygu analizleri yapılmıştır. Kosinüs benzerliği analizi, duyurular arasındaki içerik tutarlılığını ölçerken, LDA yöntemi ile duyuruların tematik yapısı ve temel konuları belirlenmiştir. Duygu analizi ise metinlerin pozitif, negatif ve nötr tonlarını ortaya koymuştur. Sonuçlar, TCMB'nin iletişim stratejisinin ekonomik koşullara bağlı olarak değiştiğini ve piyasa beklentilerini yönlendirme amacı taşıdığını göstermektedir. Çalışma, merkez bankası iletişiminde kullanılan dilin ekonomik etkilerini değerlendirmesi bakımından literatüre katkı sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

TCMB, Kosinüs Benzerliği, Gizli Dirichlet Tahsisi, Duygu Analizi, Doğal Dil İşleme (NLP), Merkez Bankası İletişimi

Kaynakça

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