Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım-Gelir Eşitsizliği Bağlamı ve Özümseme Kapasitesinin Rolü: Bir Sonlu Karışım Model Yaklaşımı

Öz

Literatürde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların (DYY) gelir dağılımı eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkisi ile ilişkili birkaç karşıt mekanizma öne sürülmekte ve bu mekanizmalar gelir dağılımı eşitsizliği-DYY bağıntısını teorik zeminde belirsiz kılmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, ampirik çalışmalar da birbiriyle çelişen sonuçlar üretmektedir. Bu durum, alıcı ülkelerin kendilerine özgü farklı özelliklerinden kaynaklı olarak DYY’lara karşı gelir eşitsizliğinin heterojen bir tepkisi ile açıklanabilir. Ampirik çalışmalardaki panel regresyon uygulamalarında sabit veya rassal etkiler modellemesi ile gözlemlenemeyen ülkeye özgü özellikler dikkate alınsa da, bazı araştırmalar, çelişen bulguların nedenlerini açıklamak için özümseme kapasitesi gibi gözlemlenebilir ülkeye özgü faktörleri ele almaktadır. Özümseme kapasitesini koşul olarak kullanan mevcut araştırmalar, eşik panel regresyon modelini kullanmaktadır ki bu model örneklemi sonuca göre bölmektedir (denetimli öğrenme). Bu çalışma, önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak gelir dağılımı eşitsizliği-DYY bağıntısını denetimsiz bir model tabanlı kümeleme tekniği olan sonlu karışım modeli (SKM) ile inceleyerek farklı bir ampirik strateji ortaya koymaktadır. Ek olarak, bu çalışma DYY’ın eşitsizlik üzerindeki değişen etkilerinde koşul faktör olarak özümseme kapasitesinin rolünü de sorgulamaktadır. 2004-2019 döneminde 26 gelişmekte olan ülkenin panel verilerine dayanan ampirik sonuçlarımız DYY'ın gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkisini üç farklı ülke kümesine göre açıklamaktadır. DYY, birinci kümede gelir eşitsizliğini iyileştirirken, ikinci kümede gelir eşitsizliğini önemli ölçüde etkilememekte ve üçüncü kümede gelir eşitsizliğini kötüleştirmektedir. Ayrıca, ampirik bulgularımız bir ülkenin yüksek özümseme kapasitesine özellikle yüksek beşeri sermaye düzeyine sahip olmasının DYY'ın o ülkenin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini önlediğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• sonlu karışım modeli
• doğrudan yabancı yatırım
• gelir dağılımı eşitsizliği
• özümseme kapasitesi
• panel veri

FDI-Inequality Nexus and the Role of Absorptive Capacity: A Finite Mixture Modeling Approach

Öz

The income inequality-FDI nexus is ambiguous on theoretical grounds, as several opposing mechanisms relating FDI to inequality are put forward in the theoretical literature. Empirical studies also produce mixed results. It might suggest a heterogeneous response of income inequality to FDI inflows conditional on distinct characteristics in recipient countries. Although unobserved country-specific characteristics are considered by fixed or random effects modeling in panel regression applications, some studies incorporate observable country-specific factors such as absorptive capacity as a conditioning factor to explain the reasons for conflicting findings. Therefore, the existing studies employ threshold panel regression models that split the sample based on the outcome (supervised learning). Differently from the previous ones, this study takes a distinct empirical strategy by adopting a finite mixture model (FMM) as an unsupervised model-based clustering technique to scrutinize distributional heterogeneity in the linkage between FDI and income inequality. The study then questions the role of absorptive capacity as a conditioning factor with varying effects on the inequality of FDI. Our empirical results, based on panel data from 26 developing countries between 2004-2019, explain the varying effects of FDI on income inequality according to three different country clusters. FDI improves income inequality in the first cluster, while it does not significantly affect income inequality in the second and deteriorates income inequality in the third cluster. Furthermore, our empirical findings reveal that a country's high absorptive capacity, especially its high level of human capital, prevents the negative impact of FDI on income distribution.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• finite-mixture model
• foreign direct investment
• income inequality
• absorptive capacity
• panel data

Kaynakça

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