Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasının Beveridge Eğrisi Aracılığı ile Yapısal Analizi: 2005-2022 Dönemi

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye İşgücü Piyasası özelinde Ocak 2005-Haziran 2022 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak eşleşme fonksiyonu yardımı ile hem ele alınan dönemin tamamı hem de belirlenen alt dönemler için Beveridge Eğrisi (BE) tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada alt dönemlerin belirlenmesinde iki farklı dönemleme tekniği kullanılmıştır. Birinci dönemlemede Bry-Boschan-Pagan-Harding algoritması ile hesaplanan işsizlik oranına ilişkin konjonktürel dalgalanmalar kullanılırken ikinci dönemleme de ise ilk dönemlemede kullanılan dalgalanma fazları kriz dönemleri ile genişletilmiştir. Eşleşme fonksiyonunu tahmin ederken eşleşme teknolojisi ortalama etkinliğini gösteren parametre, dönemler itibari ile farklı değerler aldığı varsayılarak, konjonktürel fazlar itibari ile her bir dönem için ayrı ayrı tahmin edilmiştir. Tahmin edilen bu parametre kullanılarak ele alınan dönemin tamamı ve her bir alt dönem için yine ayrı ayrı BE hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye ait BE'nin zaman içinde kuramsal ve ampirik yazına uygun bir biçimde konum değiştirdiğini göstermiştir. Negatif eğimli ve saat yönünün tersine konjonktürel değişim gösteren BE, dönemler itibari ile bir yandan orijinden uzaklaşmakta diğer yandan daha dik hale gelmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Beveridge Eğrisi
• Türkiye İşgücü Piyasası
• Eşleşme Fonksiyonu
• Küresel Kriz

Structural Analysis Of Turkish Labor Market Through Beveridge Curve: 2005-2022 Period

Öz

In this study, the Beveridge Curve (BC) was estimated for both the entire period and sub-periods with the help of the matching function, using the monthly data for the period between January-2005 and June 2022, in particular for the Turkish Labor Market. In the study, two different dating techniques were used to determine the sub-periods. In the first technique of dating, cyclical fluctuations of the unemployment rate calculated with the Bry-Boschan-Pagan-Harding algorithm were used, while in the second technique, the fluctuation phases used in the first technique were extended with crisis periods. Considering that the parameter showing the average efficiency of the matching technology in the estimation of the matching function takes different values as of the periods, it has been estimated for each period as of the cyclical phases. BC was calculated for the whole period and for each sub-period using the estimated matching efficiency parameter. The obtained findings show that the BC of Turkey is accordance with the theoretical and empirical literature. BC, with negative slope and counterclockwise cyclical change, moves away from the origin on the one hand and becomes steeper on the other hand, as of periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Beveridge Curve
• Turkish Labor Market
• Matching Function
• Global Crisis

Kaynakça

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