Uluslararası Çatışmaların Kripto Para Piyasası Üzerindeki Etkisi: İsrail-Filistin Çatışması Örneği

Öz

Finansal piyasalarda, uluslararası çatışmalar önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. İsrail ve Filistin arasında devam eden çatışma, uluslararası politika ve ekonomi için tehlike arz eden çatışmalardan biridir. Bu çalışma, İsrail-Filistin çatışmasının kripto para piyasası üzerindeki potansiyel etkisini inceleyen ilk çalışmadır. Bu amaçla, 01.03.2023 - 17.10.2023 dönemi için olay çalışması metodolojisi kullanılmış ve analizler için piyasa değerlerine göre ilk on kripto para birimi seçilmiştir. Sonuçlar, İsrail-Filistin çatışmasının belirli kripto para birimlerini (BTC, TRX, SOL ve ETH) etkilemesine rağmen, bir bütün olarak piyasa üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Dahası, etkinin çoğunluğu istatistiksel olarak pozitif olduğu bulunmuştur ve bu sonuç kripto para piyasasının güvenli bir liman olarak görüldüğünün göstergesi olabilir. Ayrıca, anormal getiriler genellikle olaydan önceki günlerde kaydedilmiştir, bu da olayın bazı kripto para birimleri tarafından beklendiğini veya tahmin edildiğini göstermektedir. Yatırımcılar ve finansal analistler, kripto para piyasasını bu gibi belirsiz zamanlarda alternatif bir yatırım aracı olarak değerlendirerek ve bu bulguları portföylerini çeşitlendirmek ve riskten korunma stratejileri oluşturmak için kullanarak bu sonuçlardan faydalanabilirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savaş
• Politik Belirsizlikler
• Olay Çalışması
• Bitcoin
• CCI30
• Kripto Paralar
• Finansal Piyasalar

The Impact of International Conflicts on the Cryptocurrency Market: The Case of Israel–Palestine Conflict

Öz

In the financial markets, international conflicts have a crucial influence. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine is one of them which poses hazards to international politics and the economy. This study is the first study that examines the potential influence of the Israel-Palestine conflict on the cryptocurrency market. To this end, the event study methodology is used for the period 01.03.2023 – 17.10.2023, and the top ten cryptocurrencies are chosen for analysis based on their market capitalization. The results show that although the Israel-Palestine conflict affected certain cryptocurrencies (including BTC, TRX, SOL, and ETH), it had no statistically significant effect on the market as a whole. Furthermore, the majority of the effect was statistically positive, which may be an indication that the cryptocurrency market is considered a safe haven. Moreover, the abnormal returns were usually recorded in the days before the event, suggesting that the event had been anticipated by some cryptocurrencies. Investors and financial analysts may benefit from these results by considering the cryptocurrency market as an alternative investment tool in these uncertain times and using these findings to diversify their portfolios and create hedging strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• War
• Political Uncertainties
• Event Study
• Bitcoin
• CCI30
• Cryptocurrencies
• Financial Markets

Kaynakça

1. Abbassi, W., Kumari, V., & Pandey, D. K. (2022). What makes firms vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine Crisis?. The Journal of Risk Finance, 24(1), 24-39.
2. Ahmed, S., Hasan, M. M., & Kamal, M. R. (2022). Russia–Ukraine crisis: The effects on the European stock market. European Financial Management, 1-41.
3. Akcaci, T., & Gok, A. (2023). Terörizmin Finansmanı ve Kripto Paralar. Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(1), 32-46.
4. Alexakis, C., Anselmi, G., & Petrella, G. (2024). Flight to cryptos: Evidence on the use of cryptocurrencies in times of geopolitical tensions. International Review of Economics & Finance, 89, 498-523.
5. Almaqableh, L., Reddy, K., Pereira, V., Ramiah, V., Wallace, D., & Veron, J. F. (2022). An investigative study of links between terrorist attacks and cryptocurrency markets. Journal of Business Research, 147, 177-188.
6. Appiah-Otoo, I. (2023). The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Cryptocurrency Market. Asian Economics Letters, 4(1), 1-5.
7. Arouri, M., Ayed, S., & Barguellil, A. (2022). War and Cryptocurrency markets: An Empirical Investigation. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4116377
8. Brooks, C. (2014). Introductory Econometrics for Finance. Cambridge University Press.

9. Brown, S. J. & Warner, J. B. (1985). Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3-31.
10. Chen, M., Qin, C., & Zhang, X. (2022). Cryptocurrency price discrepancies under uncertainty: evidence from COVID-19 and lockdown nexus. Journal of International Money and Finance, 124, 1-19.
11. Choudhry, T. (2010). World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(5), 1022-1031.
12. Colon, F., Kim, C., Kim, H., & Kim, W. (2021). The effect of political and economic uncertainty on the cryptocurrency market. Finance Research Letters, 39, 1-7.
13. Corbet, S., Larkin, C., & Lucey, B. (2020). The contagion effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from gold and cryptocurrencies. Finance Research Letters, 35, 1-7.
14. Daskalakis, N., & Daglis, T. (2023). The Russian War in Ukraine and its Effect in the Bitcoin Market. International Journal of Economics & Business Administration, 11(1), 3-16.
15. Diaconaşu, D. E., Mehdian, S. M., & Stoica, O. (2023). The reaction of financial markets to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: evidence from gold, oil, bitcoin, and major stock markets. Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2792-2796.
16. Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
17. Fernandes, L. H., de Araujo, F. H. A., Silva, J. W., Sobrinho, K. E., & Tabak, B. M. (2022). Un (punishment) of Russia-Ukraine war in the top ten digital currencies. Authorea Preprints. https://www.authorea.com/doi/full/10.22541/au.166846329.92068390
18. Frikha, W., Brahim, M., Jeribi, A., & Lahiani, A. (2023). COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine war and interconnectedness between stock and crypto markets: a wavelet-based analysis. Journal of Business Analytics, 6(4), 255-275.
19. Harryarsana, I. G. K. B. (2022). A Comparison of Regulation of Bitcoin as Crypto (Digital) Currency. UNTAG Law Review, 6(2), 1-11.
20. Hudson, R., & Urquhart, A. (2015). War and stock markets: The effect of World War Two on the British stock market. International Review of Financial Analysis, 40, 166-177.
21. Kamal, M. R., Ahmed, S., & Hasan, M. M. (2023). The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the stock market: Evidence from Australia. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 79, 1-27.
22. Kayral, I. E., Jeribi, A., & Loukil, S. (2023). Are Bitcoin and Gold a Safe Haven during COVID-19 and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine War?. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(4), 1-22.
23. Kevser, M. (2023). Bitcoin as an Alternative Financial Asset Class: Relations Between Geopolitical Risk, Global Economic Political Uncertainty, and Energy Consumption. Pamukkale Journal of Eurasian Socioeconomic Studies, 9(2), 117-131.
24. Kumari, V., Kumar, G, & Pandey, D. K. (2023). Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 37, 1-13.
25. Kothari, S. P. & Warner, J. B. (2007). Econometrics of event studies. In Handbook of empirical corporate finance (pp. 3-36), Elsevier.
26. Mohamad, A. (2022). Safe flight to which haven when Russia invades Ukraine? A 48-hour story. Economics Letters, 216, 1-7.
27. Mojanoski, G. & Bucevska, V. (2022). Event study on the reaction of the Balkan stock markets to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, 8(2), 18-27.
28. Oosterlinck, K., Reyns, A., & Szafarz, A. (2023). Gold, bitcoin, and portfolio diversification: Lessons from the Ukrainian war. Resources Policy, 83, 1-5.
29. Peterson, P. P. (1989). Event studies: A review of issues and methodology. Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 28(3), 36-66.
30. Rubbaniy, G., Polyzos, S., Rizvi, S. K. A., & Tessema, A. (2021). COVID-19, Lockdowns and herding towards a cryptocurrency market-specific implied volatility index. Economics Letters, 207, 1-6.
31. Sun, M. & Zhang, C. (2022). Comprehensive analysis of global stock market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war. Applied Economics Letters, 30(18), 1-8.
32. Sun, M., Song, H., & Zhang, C. (2022). The effects of 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on global stock markets: An event study approach. SSRN. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4051987
33. Theiri, S., Nekhili, R., & Sultan, J. (2023). Cryptocurrency liquidity during the Russia–Ukraine war: the case of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Journal of Risk Finance, 24(1), 59-71.
34. Tomic, N. (2020). Measuring the effects of Bitcoin forks on selected cryptocurrencies using event study methodology. Industrija, 48(2), 21-36.
35. Umar, M., Su, C. W., Rizvi, S. K. A., & Shao, X. F. (2021). Bitcoin: A safe haven asset and a winner amid political and economic uncertainties in the US?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 167, 1-13.
36. Ustaoglu, E. (2023). Diversification, hedge, and safe-haven properties of gold and bitcoin with portfolio implications during the Russia–Ukraine war. Resources Policy, 84, 1-11.
37. Yen, K. C., & Cheng, H. P. (2020). US Partisan Conflict and Cryptocurrency Market. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3578271
38. Yousaf, I., Patel, R. & Yarovaya, L. (2022). The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 35, 100723.