Time Series Analysis of Long-Term Stock Performance of Airlines: The Case of Turkish Airlines

Öz

This study presents a time series analysis of the long-term stock performance of airlines, with a focus on Turkish Airlines (THY). Stock-related variables were obtained from the Istanbul Stock Exchange, and other variables were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute. The research investigates various economic factors that may influence THY's stock prices over an extended period. Specifically, the study examines the relationship between global energy prices, inflation, the BIST100 index, gold prices, exchange rates, and THY stock prices. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, a versatile technique capable of estimating both short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The findings of this research reveal significant and statistically meaningful connections between these economic variables and THY's stock prices. Notably, the study highlights the impact of global energy prices and other economic factors on the long-term stock performance of Turkish Airlines. These results provide valuable insights for investors and analysts seeking to understand and forecast THY's stock price movements.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Long-Term Stock Performance
• Time Series Analysis
• Turkish Airlines
• ARDL Approach

Havayolu Sektöründe Uzun Dönem Hisse Senedi Performansının Zaman Serisi Analizi: Türk Hava Yolları Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışma, özellikle Türk Hava Yolları (THY) olmak üzere havayolu şirketlerinin uzun vadeli borsa performansına ilişkin bir zaman serisi analizi sunmaktadır. Hisse ile ilgili değişkenler İstanbul Borsası'ndan alınmış ve diğer değişkenler Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu'ndan elde edilmiştir. Araştırma, uzun bir dönem boyunca THY'nin hisse senedi fiyatlarını etkileyebilecek çeşitli ekonomik faktörleri incelemektedir. Özellikle, çalışma global enerji fiyatları, enflasyon, BIST100 endeksi, altın fiyatları, döviz kurları ve THY hisse senedi fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi inceler. Analiz, değişkenler arasındaki hem kısa vadeli hem de uzun vadeli ilişkileri tahmin edebilen çok yönlü bir teknik olan Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) yaklaşımını kullanmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın bulguları, bu ekonomik değişkenler ve THY'nin hisse senedi fiyatları arasında anlamlı ve istatistiksel olarak önemli bağlantılar ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle, çalışma, global enerji fiyatlarının ve diğer ekonomik faktörlerin Türk Hava Yolları'nın uzun vadeli borsa performansı üzerindeki etkisini vurgulamaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, THY'nin hisse senedi fiyat hareketlerini anlamak ve tahmin etmek isteyen yatırımcılar ve analistler için değerli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uzun Vadeli Hisse Senedi Performansı
• Zaman Serisi Analizi
• Türk Hava Yolları
• ARDL Yaklaşımı

Kaynakça

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