Uluslararası Ticaret Üzerinden Alınan Vergilerin ve Döviz Kurunun İthalat Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Sermaye piyasalarının küreselleşmesi, beraberinde sermaye hareketlerini de hızlandırarak dünyayı büyük bir pazara evirmiştir. Dış ticaret ise ülkelerin finansal yapısının oluşumunda önemli araç olmuştur. Bununla birlikte ülkeler arası ticarette gümrük vergisi ve ithalat kotaları gibi unsurlar dış ticarette belirleyici olmaktadır. Ülkelerin finansal politika aracı olan vergiler, dış ticaretin özellikle de ithalatın yönlendirilmesinde kullanılmaktadır. Dış ticaret faaliyetlerini belirleyici faktörlerinden biri ise döviz kurudur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ithalattan alınan vergiler ile nominal döviz kurundaki değişimin mal ve hizmet ithalat hacmine olan etkisini incelemektir. Dünya Bankası resmi internet sayfasından alınan 1999–2021 dönemine ait veriler ile 20 Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) ülkesinin incelendiği bu çalışmada AR (1) Kalıntılı Tesadüfi Etkiler Genelleştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler Regresyon Model Tahmincisi yardımıyla model analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda hem uluslararası ticaretten alınan vergilerdeki artışın ve hem de döviz kurundaki artışın ithalat hacmini azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuç uluslararası ticaretten alınan vergiler ile döviz kurundaki azaltmanın ithalat hacmini artırdığı sonucunu ampirik olarak da desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uluslararası Piyasalar
• Uluslararası Ticaret Üzerinden Alınan Vergiler
• Döviz Kuru
• Panel Veri Analizi.

The Impact of Taxation on International Commerce and Exchange Rate on Imports

Öz

The globalization of capital markets has accelerated capital movements, turning the world into one large marketplace. International trade has become an important tool in shaping the financial structure of countries. However, elements such as customs duties and import quotas play a decisive role in trade between countries. Taxes, which are a financial policy tool of countries, are used to influence foreign trade, particularly imports. One of the determining factors in foreign trade activities is the exchange rate. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of taxes on imports and the change in the nominal exchange rate on the import volume of goods and services. In this study, which examined 20 Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries with data for the period 1999-2021 taken from the World Bank official website, the model was analyzed with the help of AR (1) Residual Random Effects Generalized Least Squares Regression Model Estimator. The analysis revealed that increases in international trade taxes and exchange rate increases reduce the import volume. This result empirically supports the conclusion that taxes on international trade and reductions in exchange rates increase import volume.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uluslararası Piyasalar
• Uluslararası Ticaret Üzerinden Alınan Vergiler
• Döviz Kuru
• Panel Veri Analizi.

Kaynakça

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