The Impact of U.S.-China Tensions on Borsa Istanbul Stock Market: Evidence from ARDL Approach

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of United States (U.S.)-China trade war tensions on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) stock market. The study covers the period between January 2017 and February 2024. The reason for choosing this period is the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions after Donald Trump took office as the 45th U.S. President in January 2017. In the research model, the BIST-100 Return Index is used as the dependent variable; the U.S.-China Tension Index developed by Roger et al. (2024) to represent the tensions arising from the U.S.-China trade war and the terms of trade, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate are considered as independent variables. The stationarity properties of the variables are analysed with Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF), Kwiatkowski et al. (KPSS, 1992), Christopoulos and León-Ledesma (2010) Fourier ADF and Becker et al. (2006) Fourier KPSS tests. Long and short-run relationships are analysed with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach. The results of the study show that increases in the U.S.-China Tension Index have a negative impact on the BIST-100 Return Index in both the long and short run. This finding reveals that Borsa Istanbul is sensitive to global geopolitical risks stemming from the U.S.-China trade war. The results point to the significant effects of global geopolitical risks on capital markets and emphasise that this is an important strategic factor that should be considered especially in terms of portfolio management and global risk management.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• U.S.-China Tension Index
• Borsa Istanbul
• ARDL Bounds Approach

ABD-Çin Geriliminin Borsa İstanbul Hisse Senedi Piyasasına Etkisi: ARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu araştırmanın amacı, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD)-Çin ticaret savaşı kaynaklı gerilimlerin Borsa İstanbul (BİST) hisse senedi piyasası üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Araştırma, Ocak 2017 ile Şubat 2024 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Bu dönemin seçilme nedeni, Donald Trump’ın Ocak 2017’de 45. ABD Başkanı olarak göreve başlamasıyla birlikte ABD-Çin ticari gerilimlerinin tırmanışa geçmesidir. Araştırma modelinde, BİST-100 Getiri Endeksi bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmış; ABD-Çin ticaret savaşı kaynaklı gerilimleri temsilen, Roger vd. (2024) tarafından geliştirilen ABD-Çin Gerilim Endeksi ile dış ticaret haddi, faiz oranı, enflasyon ve döviz kuru bağımsız değişkenler olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Değişkenlerin durağanlık özellikleri, Augmented Dickey ve Fuller (ADF), Kwiatkowski vd. (KPSS, 1992), Christopoulos ve León-Ledesma (2010) Fourier ADF ve Becker vd. (2006) Fourier KPSS testleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Uzun ve kısa vadeli ilişkiler, Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli Sınır Testi (ARDL) yaklaşımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Araştırma sonuçları, ABD-Çin Gerilim Endeksi’ndeki artışların hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde BİST-100 Getiri Endeksi’ni olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Bu bulgu, Borsa İstanbul’un ABD-Çin ticaret savaşı kaynaklı küresel jeopolitik risklere duyarlı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, küresel jeopolitik risklerin sermaye piyasaları üzerindeki belirgin etkilerine işaret etmekte; bu durumun, özellikle portföy yönetimi ve küresel risk yönetimi açısından dikkate alınması gereken önemli bir stratejik faktör olduğunu vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ABD-Çin Gerilim Endeksi
• Borsa İstanbul
• ARDL Sınır Yaklaşımı

Kaynakça

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