Seçilmiş Para Politikası Göstergelerinin İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Para politikası ve istihdam arasındaki ilişki, iktisat yazınında sıklıkla tartışılan konulardan birisidir. Yakın geçmişte küresel bir salgının ortaya çıkışı, değişmiş olabilecek ekonomi dinamiklerinin tespiti için para politikası-istihdam bağlantısı için yeni bir araştırmayı gerektirmiştir. Ortaya çıkan ihtiyaç doğrultusunda hazırlanan bu çalışmada, para politikası araçlarının istihdam üzerindeki etkisi 2013:Ç1-2024:Ç1 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde araştırılmıştır. Araştırmada, ampirik kanıtlar elde etmek için birim kök analizi, ARDL Sınır Testi ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) yöntemlerinden yararlanılmış ve küresel salgının etkileri dikkate alınmıştır. Elden edilen sonuçlara göre referans dönemde M3 para arzı, repo işlemleri ve reeskont oranı istihdamı anlamlı bir şekilde etkilerken; fonlama maliyetine dair anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmemiştir. Ayrıca Kovid-19 krizi, kukla değişken olarak istihdam üzerinde anlamlı etkiye sahip bir diğer faktör olarak bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlar doğrultusunda, istihdam için, Türkiye ekonomisinin, müdahaleci politikalara belirli kıstaslar çerçevesinde ihtiyaç duyduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Böylece öngörülemeyen ekonomik şokların yaşandığı dönemler için etkin ekonomi politikaları, politika aktarım mekanizmalarının takibi ve emek faktörünü koruyan kalıcı kanuni düzenlemeler önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Politikası
• İstihdam
• Türkiye Ekonomisi
• Kovid-19

The Impacts of Selected Monetary Policy Indicators on Employment: The Case of Türkiye

Öz

The relationship between monetary policy and employment is a frequently discussed topic in the economics literature. The recent global pandemic necessitated a new evaluation for monetary policy-employment nexus to reveal potential changes in dynamics. This study, prepared to address this emerging need, investigated the impact of monetary policy instruments on employment in the Türkiye economy for the period 2013Q1-2024Q1. In the study, which takes the global pandemic into account, unit root analysis, the Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test, and the Error Correction Model (ECM) methods were used to obtain empirical evidence. According to the results, while M3 money supply, rediscount rate, and repo transactions significantly influenced employment in the reference period, no significant relationship was found with the funding cost. Additionally, the Covid-19 crisis had a significant impact on employment. Based on these findings, it has been concluded that the Turkish economy needs interventionist policies regarding employment within certain criteria. Therefore, effective economic policies, the monitoring of policy transmission mechanisms, and permanent legal regulations that protect the workers are recommended against unexpected economic shocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Monetary Policy
• Employment
• Türkiye Economy
• Covid-19

Kaynakça

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