BIST 100 Mevduat Bankalarında Finansal Risklerin Sürdürülebilir Büyüme ve Karlılık Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören yedi mevduat bankasının 2014-2024 dönemine ait verileri kullanılarak finansal risk unsurlarının karlılık ve sürdürülebilir büyüme performansı ile istatistiksel ilişkileri analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmanın teorik çerçevesi, bankaları yalnızca önceden birikmiş tasarrufları yatırımcılara aktaran pasif aracılar olarak görmeyen bir yaklaşımla yeniden yapılandırılmıştır. Buna göre mevduat bankaları, kredi verme faaliyeti yoluyla mevduat yaratan ve sürdürülebilir performansı kredi yaratımı, bilanço kompozisyonu, sermaye yapısı, likidite koşulları ve risk maruziyeti üzerinden şekillenen finansal kurumlardır. Araştırmada panel veri yöntemi benimsenmiş; öncelikle yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve eğim heterojenliği test edilmiş, ardından serilerin durağanlığı ikinci kuşak birim kök testleri aracılığıyla incelenmiştir. Ampirik modeller, eşanlı korelasyon ve değişen varyans sorunlarını dikkate alan dönem bazlı Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyonlar (SUR) ağırlıklandırmalı Panel Tahmin Edilmiş Genelleştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler (EGLS) yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, finansal risk göstergelerinin genel olarak banka performansı üzerinde olumsuz etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle kredi riskinin içsel büyüme ve sürdürülebilir büyüme üzerinde belirleyici olduğu, buna karşılık likidite riski ve sermaye yeterliliği riskinin aktif karlılığı üzerinde daha güçlü etkiler sergilediği tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, bankacılık sektöründe risk ve performans arasındaki ilişkinin çok boyutlu bir yapıya sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışma, sürdürülebilir banka performansının birden fazla finansal risk kanalı tarafından sınırlandığını ve yalnızca tek bir performans göstergesine dayalı değerlendirmelerin eksik veya yanıltıcı olabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bankacılık
• Sürdürülebilir Büyüme
• Finansal Risk
• Panel Veri Analizi
• Karlılık

Impact of Financial Risks on Sustainable Growth and Profitability in BIST 100 Deposit Banks

Öz

This study examines the statistical associations between financial risk factors and both profitability and sustainable growth performance of seven deposit banks listed on Borsa Istanbul over the period 2014-2024. The theoretical framework is revised to avoid treating banks merely as passive intermediaries of pre-existing savings. Instead, the study recognizes deposit banks as credit-creating institutions whose lending activity, balance-sheet composition, capital position, liquidity structure, and risk exposure jointly shape sustainable performance. Employing a panel data framework, the analysis first tests for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, followed by the assessment of stationarity using second-generation unit root tests. The empirical models are estimated through Panel Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) with Period Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) weighting, ensuring robustness against contemporaneous correlation and heteroskedasticity. The findings reveal that financial risk indicators are predominantly associated with a deterioration in bank performance metrics. Specifically, credit risk emerges as a critical determinant adversely affecting both internal growth and sustainable growth rates, whereas liquidity risk and capital adequacy risk exhibit stronger explanatory power for variations in return on assets. These results underscore the multidimensional nature of risk-performance dynamics in banking. Overall, the evidence suggests that sustainable bank performance is jointly constrained by multiple financial risk channels, and that relying on a single performance indicator may yield incomplete or potentially misleading assessments. The study contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive, risk-integrated evaluation framework for bank performance while acknowledging that banking-sector sustainability also involves systemic risk, asset quality, market structure, and macro-financial resilience.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Banking
• Sustainable Growth
• Financial Risk
• Panel Data Analysis
• Profitability

Kaynakça

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