Ticari Dışa Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Bağlantısı: BRICS Örneği

Öz

Küreselleşmenin yayılma ve yansımasının sorgulandığı dünyada ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi önemini korumaktadır. Geçmişten günümüze çeşitli zaman ve mekân farklılığına dayalı olarak bu ilişkiyi sorgulayan çalışmaların bazılarının negatif ve bazıları ise pozitif ilişki olduğuna dair bulgular sunmaları, bu hususta konsensüs sağlanamadığını göstermektedir. Bu doğrultuda BRICS örneklemi için ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasında ilişki olup olmadığının ve varsa bu ilişkinin yönünün tespitiyle diğer araştırmalarda bulunan farklılıkların nedeninin açıklanmasının literatüre katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir. Bu çerçevede çalışmanın amacı, BRICS ülkeleri için 1996-2020 yılları arasında literatür bulgularına ek olarak ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ticari açıklık derecesinin etkisinin ortaya konmasıdır. Çalışmanın sonucunda elde edilen bulgular: Dışa açıklık oranı ve döviz kuru değişkenlerinin, incelenen dönem aralığında ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki anlamlı olmakla birlikte pozitif yönlü tesirine karşın doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar değişkeninin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisinin istatiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığına dairdir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Ticari açıklık
• Döviz kuru
• doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar
• BRICS ülkeleri

Trade Openness and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of BRICS

Öz

In a world the spread and reflection of globalization are questioned, the relationship between trade openness and economic growth maintains its importance. The fact that some of the studies questioning this relationship based on the differences in time and space from the past to the present findings that some are negative and some are positive, shows that there is no consensus on this issue. Accordingly, we think that determining whether there is a relationship between trade openness and economic growth for the BRICS sample, and if so, the direction of this relationship and explaining the reason for the differences found in other studies will contribute to the literature. In this context, the aim of the study is to investigate the effect of the degree of trade openness on economic growth in addition to the literature findings during the period 1996-2020 for the BRICS countries. The findings obtained as a result of the study: Despite the fact that there is a positive and statistically significant between the the effect of trade openness and exchange rate variables on economic growth during the period under consideration, the effect of foreign direct invesment variable on economic growth is not statistically significant.    

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Trade Openness
• Exchange Rates
• Foreign Direct Investment
• BRICS Countries

Kaynakça

1. Aslan, A., & Topcu, E. (2018). The Relationship between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Turkish Sectors. Economies, 6(2), 22. MDPI AG. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies6020022
2. Baldwin, R. E. (2004). Openness and Growth: What’s the Empirical Relationship? R. E. Baldwin and L. A. Winters (Edt.) In Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics (pp. 499-525). Chicago: University of Chicago Press Retrieved 25 February, 2022 from https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c9548/c9548.pdf
3. Barro, R. J., & Sala-I-Martin, X. (1997). Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 2(1), 1–26. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40215930
4. Bhagwati, J., & Srinivasan, T. N. (2002). Trade and Poverty in the Poor Countries. The American Economic Review, 92(2), 180–183. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3083398
5. Bijarnia, B. S. (2013). Whither Global Economic Governance? The Emerging Role of BRICS: An Alternative. Indian Journal of Asian Affairs, 26(1/2), 75–92. http://www.jstor.org/stable/43550357
6. Breusch, T. S. and A. R. Pagan (1980). The Lagrange multiplier testand its applications to model specification tests in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies 47, 239–53.
7. Burange, L., Ranadive, R. R. & Karnik, N. N. (2013). Trade Openness and Economic Growth Nexus: A Case Study of BRICS. ISFIRE Working Paper Series, No.1. Retrieved 25 February, 2022 from https://ojsiire.com/index.php/isfirewps/issue/view/3/pdf_2
8. Burange, L., Ranadive, R. R. & Karnik, N. N. (2015). Causality between Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Experience of India and China. ISFIRE Working Paper Series. No.7. Retrieved 25 February, 2022 from https://ojsiire.com/index.php/isfirewps/issue/view/19

9. Busse, M. & Koeniger, J. (2012). Trade and Economic Growth: A Re-Examination of the Empirical Evidence. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2009939. Retrieved 25 February, 2022 from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2009939
10. Cambazoğlu, B. (2019) Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler ve BRICS Ülkelerinin Karşılaştırmalı Makroekonomik Analizi (ss. 273-299), Eds. Aslı Yenipazarlı. Seçilmiş Konularla 21. Yüzyılda Dünya Ekonomisi, Ankara: Seçkin Kitabevi. ISBN: 978-975-02-5816-9 (10 puan)
11. Cambazoğlu, B. (2020). Trade Protectionism: Pros and Cons. Ahu Coşkun Özer (Eds.), International Trade Policies in the Era of Globalization, (pp. 94-115). Hershey: IGI Global Publication. doi:10.4018/978-1-5225-9566-3.ch005
12. Çevik, E. I., Atukeren, E. & Korkmaz, T. (2019). Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Rolling Frequency Domain Analysis. Economies, 7(2), 41, 2-16, https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7020041 -
13. Cinar, M. & Nulambeh, N. A. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa. Business and Economics Research Journal, 9(4), 749-760. doi: 10.20409/berj.2018.136
14. Coe, D. T., Helpman, E., & Hoffmaister, A. W. (1997). North-South R & D Spillovers. The Economic Journal, 107(440), 134–149. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2235275
15. Deardorff, A. V. (2001). Rich and Poor Countries in Neoclassical Trade and Growth. The Economic Journal, 111(470), 277–294. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2667865
16. Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2004). Trade, Growth, and Poverty. The Economic Journal, 114(493), F22–F49. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3590109
17. Eberhardt, M., Bond, S. (2009) Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator Online, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17692/ MPRA Paper No. 17692, posted 07. October 2009
18. Eberhardt, M., Teal, F. (2010)Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics∗ 7th October 2010, CSAE WPS/2010-32
19. Edwards, S. (1993). Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Literature, 31(3), 1358–1393. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2728244
20. Edwards, S. (1998). Openness, Productivity and Growth: What do We Really Know? The Economic Journal, 108(447), 383–398. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2565567
21. Estevadeordal, A., & Taylor, A. M. (2013). Is The Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, And the Great Liberalization, 1970s-2000s. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(5), 1669–1690. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/43554854
22. Frankel, J. A., & Romer, D. (1999). Does Trade Cause Growth? The American Economic Review, 89(3), 379–399. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/117025
23. Gujarati, D.N. (1999) Essentials of Econometrics. 2nd Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York.
24. Irwin, D. (2001). A Brief History of International Trade Policy. Retrieved December 14, 2018, from https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/Irwintrade.html.
25. Khobai, H., Kolisi, N. & Moyo, C. (2018). The Relationship between Trade Openness and Economic Growth: The Case of Ghana and Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(1), 77-82.
26. Kristjanpoller R., W., & Olson, J. E. (2014). Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: Is It Based on Export-Led or Import-Led Growth? Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 50, 6–20. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24475677
27. Krugman, P. (1979). A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income. Journal of Political Economy, 87(2), 253–266. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1832086
28. Krugman, P. (1994). The Myth of Asia’s Miracle. Foreign Affairs, 73(6), 62–78. https://doi.org/10.2307/20046929
29. Kurt, S. & Berber, M. (2010). Türkiye'de Dışa Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme . Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22 (2) , 57-80. Retrieved 22 February, 2022 from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/atauniiibd/issue/2694/35460
30. Levine, R. & Renelt, D. (1992). A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regression. The American Economic Review, 82(4), 942-963. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2117352
31. Madsen, J. B. (2009). Trade Barriers, Openness, and Economic Growth. Southern Economic Journal, 76(2), 397–418. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/27751473
32. Ocampo, J. A. & Taylor, L. (1998). Trade Liberalization in Developing Economies: Modest Benefits but Problems with Productivity Growth, Macro Prices, and Income Distribution. CEPA Working Paper, No. 8, Retrieved 25 February, 2022 from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.202.5869&rep=rep1&type=pdf
33. Pesaran, H. , Ullah, A., Yamagata, T (2008)” A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence” Econometrics Journal (2008), volume 11, pp. 105–127. doi: 10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
34. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240)
35. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22 (2), 265-312.
36. Rodríguez, F. (2007). Openness and growth: What Have We Learned? UN DESA Working Paper, No. 51, 1-25. Retrieved 25 February, 2022 from https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/1597341784.7773.pdf
37. Rodríguez, F., & Rodrik, D. (2000). Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to the Cross-National Evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, 261–325. https://doi.org/10.2307/3585399
38. Rodrik, D. (1996). Understanding Economic Policy Reform. Journal of Economic Literature, 34(1), 9–41. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2729408
39. Sachs, J. D., Warner, A., Åslund, A., & Fischer, S. (1995). Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995(1), 1–118. Retrieved February, 2022 from https://doi.org/10.2307/2534573
40. Shayanewako, B.. (2018). The Relationship between Trade Openness and Economic Growth: The Case of BRICS Countries. Journal of Global Economics. 6(2). DOI: 10.4172/2375-4389.1000289 Soomro, A. N., Kumar, J. & Kumari, J. (2022). The Dynamic Relationship Between FDI, ICT, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 9(2), 295-303. doi:10.13106/jafeb.2022.vol9.no2.0295
41. Srinivasan, T. N. (1991). Reform of Industrial and Trade Policies. Economic and Political Weekly, 26(37), 2143–2145. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41626997
42. The World Bank [WB] Data Retrieved February, 2022 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator
43. Vamvakidis, A. (2002). How Robust Is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(1), 57–80. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/40216054
44. Veeramani, C. (2014). World’s Knowledge Spillovers : Beyond Openness and Growth. Journal of Economic Integration, 29(2), 298–328. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/23723857
45. Wacziarg, R., & Welch, K. H. (2003). Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 10152. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.nber.org/papers/w10152
46. Wacziarg, R., & Welch, K. H. (2008). Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 22(2), 187–231. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40282271
47. Westerlund, J. (2007) Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data, OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, 69, 6 (2007) 0305-9049, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x, Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2007. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd,
48. Winters, L. A. (2004). Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: An Overview. The Economic Journal, 114(493), F4–F21. Retrieved February, 2022 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3590108
49. Yenipazarlı, A. & Erdal, F. (2010). Dış Ticaretin Serbestleşmesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1), 15-24. Retrieved 05 March, 2022 from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ebd/issue/4855/66770