Volatility Forecasting with Intraday Data: The Evolution of Realized Variance and the HAR-RV Model

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 55 - 79, 31.12.2025

Burak Korkusuz

https://doi.org/10.34232/pjess.1578357

Öz

Güniçi Verilerle Volatilite Tahmini: Gerçekleştirilmiş Varyansın Evrimi ve HAR-RV Modeli

Öz

Gerçek volatilite istatistiki olarak gizlidir, bu nedenle gerçek volatiliteyi temsil edecek bir temsili ölçüte ihtiyaç vardır. Özellikle GARCH türü modellerin uygulamalarında, günlük getirilerin karesi veya mutlak değeri bu gerçek volatiliteyi temsil için kullanılır. Fakat, 2000'lerin başından itibaren, veri depolama teknolojilerindeki gelişmeler sayesinde yüksek frekansta verilere kolay erişim, volatilite araştırmalarını günlük bazlı yöntemlerden güniçi bazlı yöntemlere evirmiştir. Bu da güniçi verilerin kullanımını akademide ve pratikte oldukça dikkat çekici hale getirmiştir. Andersen ve Bollerslev (1998) yüksek frekansta verilerden türetilen bir volatilite ölçüsü geliştirmiştir. Bu ölçü, güniçi getirilerin kareleri toplamı ile hesaplanan "gerçekleştirilmiş varyans (realized variance)" olarak adlandırılır. Gerçekleştirilmiş varyansın, günlük kapanış fiyatına göre hesaplanan getirilerin karesinden daha hassas bir volatilite ölçüsü olduğu gösterilmiştir, böylece de gelecekteki volatilite hakkında daha fazla bilgi içerir. Heterojen Piyasa Hipotezi’ne dayanarak, Corsi (2009) gerçekleştirilmiş varyans için Heterojen Oto-Regresif (HAR-RV) modelini önermektedir. Bu çalışma, finansal piyasalarda daha etkin tahminler elde etmek için intraday (güniçi) verilerin ve uygun model spesifikasyonlarının kullanılmasının önemine dikkat çekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Volatilite , Temsili Volatilite , Koşullu Varyans , Gerçekleştirilmiş Varyans , GARCH , HAR-RV

Kaynakça

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