Windfall Vergisinin Kamu Maliyesi Perspektifinden Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Bu çalışma, windfall vergisini kamu maliyesi perspektifinden incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda windfall vergisi (i) mali, (ii) dağıtımsal, (iii) iktisadi ve (iv) hukuki-idari olmak üzere dört boyutlu bir çerçevede ele alınmıştır. Çalışma, windfall vergisinin olağanüstü dönemlerde gelir yaratma ve yeniden dağıtım potansiyeli taşıdığını; ancak bu potansiyelin matrahın doğru tanımlanmasına, meşruiyet zemininin korunmasına, piyasa bozucu etkilerin sınırlandırılmasına, hukuki ilkelere uygunluğuna ve idari kapasitenin yeterliliğine bağlı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Windfall Vergisi
• Olağanüstü Kazanç
• Vergi Adaleti
• İktisadi Etkinlik
• Hukuki Belirlilik

An Evaluation of the Windfall Tax from a Public Finance Perspective

Öz

This study aims to examine the windfall tax from a public finance perspective. Accordingly, the windfall tax is analysed within a four-dimensional framework comprising (i) fiscal, (ii) distributive, (iii) economic, and (iv) legal-administrative dimensions. The study indicates that windfall taxation has the potential to generate public revenue and promote redistribution during extraordinary periods. However, the realisation of this potential depends on the accurate definition of the tax base, the preservation of legitimacy, the minimisation of tax-induced distortions, compliance with legal principles, and adequate administrative capacity.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Windfall Tax
• Windfall Gains
• Tax Equity
• Economic Efficiency
• Legal Certainty

Kaynakça

1. Abdul-Salam, Y. (2024). Examining the effect of the UK oil and gas windfall tax on the economics of new fields in the UKCS province. Resources Policy, 88, 104447.
2. Allee, K. D., Speitmann, R., Stenzel, A. & Wu, Y. (2024). Market-based oil spill(overs): Market reactions to the energy windfall tax announcements and disclosures in the United Kingdom. Economics Letters, 238, 111670.
3. Antón, R.G., Nový, Z. & Seara, D.B. (2024). The Compatibility of the Spanish Windfall Levy on Credit Institutions with EU Law and International Economic Law (Investment Law and Tax Treaties). Nordic Tax Journal, 2024(1), 62-94.
4. Arnold, A. J. (2014). “A paradise for profiteers?” The importance and treatment of profits during the First World War. Accounting History Review, 24(2–3), 61–81.
5. Avi-Yonah, R. S. & Shanan, T. U. (2024). Rethinking taxing excess profits. The Tax Lawyer, 77(2), 269–300.
6. Azémar, C., Desbordes, R., Melindi-Ghidi, P. & Nicolaï, J.-P. (2022). Winners and losers of the COVID-19 pandemic: An excess profits tax proposal. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 24(5), 1016–1038.
7. Banca d’Italia. (2023). Economic Bulletin No. 4–2023. Rome: Banca d’Italia.
8. Baunsgaard, T. & Vernon, N. (2022). Taxing windfall profits in the energy sector (IMF Note No. 2022/002). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

9. Billings, M. & Oats, L. (2014). Innovation and pragmatism in tax design: Excess Profits Duty in the UK during the First World War. Accounting History Review, 24(2–3), 83–101.
10. Blankenship, J., & Weimer, D. L. (1985). The Double Inefficiency of the Windfall Profits Tax on Crude Oil. The Energy Journal, 6(1_suppl), 189-202.
11. Boadway, R. & Keen, M. (2010). Theoretical perspectives on resource tax design. P. Daniel, M. Keen & C. McPherson (Ed.), The Taxation of Petroleum and Minerals: Principles, Problems and Practice (ss. 13–74). London: Routledge.
12. Chennells, L. (1997). The windfall tax. Fiscal Studies. 18(3), 279–291.
13. Chiocchetti, A. & Moreau-Kastler, N. (2026). The global allocation of extractive windfalls. Paris: International Tax Observatory.
14. Christians, A. & Diniz Magalhães, T. (2023). The case for taxing away unsustainable profits. The George Washington Law Review, 91(3), 697–754.
15. Cordewener, A. (2024). Editorial: ‘Windfall taxes’ under Regulation (EU) 2022/1854: Soon gone with the wind? EC Tax Review, 33(6), 216–222.
16. Corte Costituzionale. (2024). Sentenza n. 111/2024 (ECLI:IT: COST: 2024:111). Erişim Tarihi: 20 Temmuz 2026, URL: https://www.cortecostituzionale.it/scheda-pronuncia/2024/111
17. Council of the European Union. (2022). Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1854 of 6 October 2022 on an emergency intervention to address high energy prices. Official Journal of the European Union, L 261I, 1–21.
18. Daniel, P., Keen, M. & McPherson, C. (Eds.). (2010). The Taxation of Petroleum and Minerals: Principles, Problems and Practice. London: Routledge.
19. De Vito, A., Pancotto, L., Perdichizzi, S. & Reghezza, A. (2023). Don’t go on holiday in August! Market reaction to an unexpected windfall tax on banks. Economics Letters, 233, 111407.
20. Dilemre Öden, B. (2026). Beklenmedik Kâr Vergisinde Ekonomik ve Hukuki Parametrelerin Uyumu: AB ve Türkiye Perspektifi. İstanbul Kültür Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1), 1-36
21. Diniz Magalhães, T. & De Lillo, F. (2023). The return of windfall taxation. Intertax, 51(11), 722–731.
22. Drapkin, D. B. & Verleger, P. K., Jr. (1981). The windfall profit tax: Origins, development, implications. Boston College Law Review, 22(4), 631–704.
23. Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu. (2022). 29 Mart 2022 tarihli ve 10887 sayılı Kurul Kararı: Kaynak Bazında Destekleme Bedelinin Belirlenmesine ve Uygulanmasına İlişkin Usul ve Esaslarda Değişiklik Yapılmasına Dair Usul ve Esaslar. Resmî Gazete (Sayı: 31794).
24. Ensor, R. (2022). A deficit of deserts: The case for a pandemic excess profits tax. Washington University Law Review Online, 99. Erişim Tarihi: 10 Nisan 2026, URL: https://wustllawreview.org/2022/03/30/a-deficit-of-deserts-the-case-for-a-pandemic-excess-profits-tax/
25. Erdős, G. & Czoboly, G. (2023). New legislative tool for introducing EU-wide windfall taxes. European Taxation, 63(1), 36–41.
26. European Central Bank. (2022). Opinion of the European Central Bank of 2 November 2022 on the imposition of temporary levies on certain credit institutions (CON/2022/36). European Commission. (2025). Report on Chapter III of Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1854 of 6 October 2022 on an emergency intervention to address high energy prices: Solidarity contribution and enacted equivalent measures—Stocktaking (COM (2025) 237 final). Brussels: European Commission.
27. François, M., Oliveira, C., Planterose, B. & Zucman, G. (2022). A modern excess profit tax (EU Tax Observatory Working Paper No. 5). Paris: EU Tax Observatory.
28. Giambrone, F. L. (2025). Exploring the windfall profits tax: Historical context, international debates, and contemporary applications in Germany and Italy. European Business Law Review, 36(7), 1145–1184.
29. Greggi, M. & Miotto, A. (2024). Windfall profit taxation in Europe (and beyond). Laws, 13(1), 1–14.
30. Grubel, H. G. & Sydneysmith, S. C. (1975). The taxation of windfall gains on stocks of natural resources. Canadian Public Policy/Analyse de Politiques, 1(1), 13–29.
31. Gökbulut, F. (2024). Beklenmedik kârları vergilendirmek. Vergi Sorunları Dergisi, 47(425), 66–79.
32. Haig, R. M. (1919). The Revenue Act of 1918. Political Science Quarterly, 34(3), 369–391.
33. Halasz, A. (2023). Concept of a so-called windfall tax in the Polish tax system pursuant to Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1854 of 6 October 2022 on an emergency intervention to address high energy prices: Outline of the issue. Prawo, 337, 62–71.
34. Hebous, S., Prihardini, D. & Vernon, N. (2022). Excess profit taxes: Historical perspective and contemporary relevance (IMF Working Paper No. 22/187). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
35. Heck, I., Rabensteiner, T. & Tippet, B. (2024). A progressive excess profit tax for the European Union (PEGFA Working Paper Series No. 97). London: PEGFA.
36. HM Treasury. (2024). Changes to the Energy (Oil and Gas) Profits Levy. Erişim Tarihi: 18 Temmuz 2026, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/july-statement-2024-changes-to-the-energy-oil-and-gas-profits-levy/changes-to-the-energy-oil-and-gas-profits-levy
37. Hurt, C. (2010). The windfall myth. Georgetown Journal of Law & Public Policy, 8, 339–394.
38. Kades, E. (1999). Windfalls. Yale Law Journal, 108(7), 1489–1568.
39. Kurumlar Vergisi Kanunu (Kanun No. 5520) (2006, 21 Haziran). Resmî Gazete (Sayı: 26205).
40. Langbein, S. I. (2013). Doing the math (and the English) in the windfall tax cases. Tax Management International Journal, 42(3), 134.
41. Lazzari, S. (1990). The windfall profit tax on crude oil: Overview of the issues (CRS Report No. 90-442 E). Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
42. Lazzari, S. (2006). The crude oil windfall profit tax of the 1980s: Implications for current energy policy (CRS Report RL33305). Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
43. Lazzari, S. & Pirog, R. (2008). Oil industry financial performance and the windfall profits tax (CRS Report RL34689). Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
44. Lundstøl, O. & Isaksen, J. (2018). Zambia’s mining windfall tax (WIDER Working Paper No. 2018/51). Helsinki: United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research.
45. Maneely, M. & Ratnovski, L. (2024). Bank profits and bank taxes in the EU (IMF Working Paper No. 2024/143). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
46. Marshall, L. (1991). New evidence on fiscal illusion: The 1986 tax “windfalls.” American Economic Review, 81(5), 1336–1344.
47. Martins, A. M. (2025). Banks’ stock market reaction to the Italian and Spanish windfall tax announcement: An event study. Journal of Banking Regulation, 26(1), 54–61.
48. Mazzucato, M., Ryan-Collins, J. & Gouzoulis, G. (2023). Mapping modern economic rents: the good, the bad, and the grey areas. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 47 (3), 507–534.
49. McDonald, S. L. (1981). The incidence and effects of the crude oil windfall profit tax. Natural Resources Journal, 21(2), 331–339.
50. Mead, W. J., & Deacon, R. T. (1979). Proposed windfall profits tax on crude oil: some major errors in estimation. The Journal of Energy and Development, 5(1), 32–43.
51. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania. (2023). For national defence—Temporary solidarity contribution by banks, Vilnius: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania. Erişim Tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2026, URL: https://finmin.lrv.lt/en/news/for-national-defence-temporary-solidarity-contribution-by-banks/
52. Muñiz-Fernández, Á. & Pérez, L. (2026). Taxing windfall money: A quasi-experimental study. Contemporary Economic Policy, 44(2), 319–332.
53. Nálepová, V. & Lampart, M. (2024). Impact of windfall tax on market dynamics: A Cournot oligopoly model with exogenous shocks. Economic Modelling, 137, 106779.
54. Nicolay, K., Steinbrenner, D., Woelfing, N. & Spix, J. (2023). The effectiveness and distributional consequences of excess profit taxes or windfall taxes in light of the Commission’s recommendation to Member States (PE 740.076). Brussels: European Parliament.
55. Nicolay, K., Spix, J. & Steinbrenner, D. (2026). Excess profit taxes in times of crisis: The example of the inframarginal revenue cap in the EU electricity market (ZEW Discussion Paper No. 26-012). Mannheim: ZEW—Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
56. Palanský, M. & Tuinsma, T. (2026). Taxing windfall profits in the energy sector (Tax Justice Network Working Paper No. 2026/01). London: Tax Justice Network.
57. Plehn, C. C. (1920). War profits and excess profits taxes. American Economic Review, 10(2), 283–298.
58. Powers, P. (2022). The case for a global excess profits tax: A response to Dr. Tarcísio Diniz Magalhães and Professor Allison Christians. Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, 29(2), Article 8.
59. Rao, N. L. (2018). Taxes and U.S. oil production: Evidence from California and the windfall profit tax. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(4), 268–301.
60. Reynolds, H. & Neubig, T. (2016). Distinguishing between “normal” and “excess” returns for tax policy (OECD Taxation Working Paper No. 28). Paris: OECD Publishing.
61. Seely, A. (2004). The windfall tax (Research Briefing SN00338). London: House of Commons Library.
62. Shapiro, R. J. & Pham, N. D. (2005). The economic impact of a windfall profits tax on savers and shareholders. Washington, DC: Sonecon.
63. Stevanato, D. (2026). The uneasy case for windfall and excess profits taxation—Part I. World Tax Journal, 18(1). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Anayasası. (1982, 9 Kasım). Resmî Gazete (Sayı: 17863 Mükerrer).
64. Tickell, A. (1998). A tax on success? Privatization, employment and the ‘Windfall Tax’. Area, 30(1), 83–90.
65. Verleger, P. K., Jr. (1980). An assessment of the effects of the windfall profits tax on crude oil supply. The Energy Journal, 1(4), 41–58.
66. Villegas Aldazosa, A. R. (2009). Windfall profits tax on oil and gas: U.S. and Latin American approach. Intertax, 37(1), 74–80.
67. Wälde, T. W. & Kolo, A. (1999). Renegotiating previous governments’ privatization deals: The 1997 UK windfall tax on utilities and international law. Northwestern Journal of International Law & Business, 19, 405–424.
68. Yüksel, İ. E. & Dumlupınar, S. (2025). Beklenmedik kâr vergisi (Windfall tax/düşeş vergisi). Ş. Ay (Ed.), Maliye Teorisi Çalışmaları (ss. 79–104). Ankara: İKSAD Yayınları.