Gri Tahmin Yöntemi İle İstanbul Su Tüketiminin Modellenmesi

Öz

Mühendislik yapılarının ekonomik ve sürdürülebilir hizmet verebilmeleri, yapım öncesi titiz bir planlama gerektirmektedir. Uzun hizmet ömrü ve yüksek ilk yatırım maliyetleri sebebiyle ön planlama su yapılarında ayrı bir önem taşır. Projelendirilecek su yapısının hangi boyut ve özellikte olması gerektiği, su tüketim miktarları ile ilişkilidir. Gelecekte gerçekleşmesi düşünülen su tüketim değerinin tespiti bu yapıların inşa sürecine önemli katkılar sunmaktadır. Ancak bazı bölgelerde geçmişte kullanılan su miktarına ait ölçümlerdeki yetersizlik veya eksik kayıtlar sebebiyle tahmin yapmak zorlaşmaktadır. Klasik tahmin yöntemleri belirli bir sayının altında veri ile sağlıklı performans sergileyemezler. Geçmiş kayıtların az olduğu durumlarda ise Gri Tahmin yöntemi en çok başvurulan yöntemlerden biridir. Bu çalışmada, güncel bir yöntem olan Gri Tahmin yöntemi kullanılarak İstanbul ilinin yıllık su tüketim değerleri tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Gri Tahmin yöntemlerinin sonuçları istatistiksel başarı kriterleri yardımıyla test edilmiş ve hidrolojide kullanımının mümkün olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gri tahmin,su tüketimi,hidroloji,zaman serisi,matematik model

Water Consumption Model Of Istanbul City By Gray Prediction Method

Öz

Engineering structures require precise planning before its construction to provide economical and sustainable service. Due to long service life and high initial investment costs, preliminary planning is of particular importance for water structures. The size and type of the water structure to be projected is highly related to the amount of water consumption rate. The determination of water consumption rate which is considered to be realized in the future provides an important contribution to the construction process of these special structures. However, in some regions it is difficult to estimate the water demand because of inadequacies or missing records in previous water consumption rates. Classical prediction methods cannot perform well with limited number of data. Gray Prediction Model is one of the most commonly used methods when there are few records. In this study, annual water consumption rates of the province of Istanbul were estimated by using Gray Prediction Model which is a contemporary method. The results of the Gray Prediction Model was tested with the help of statistical error criteria and it was found out that this method gives satisfactory results in hydrology area even if number of data is limited.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gray prediction,water consumption,hydrology,time series,mathematical model

Kaynakça

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