DÜZENLİ HAT TAŞIMACILIĞI LINER SEKTÖRÜNDE FİYATLANDIRMA KARARLARI: YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 21, 125 - 150, 01.06.2018

Ceren Akman Bıyık Mustafa Tanyeri

Öz

Fiyat pazarlama karmasının stratejik bir aracı ve gelir sağlayan tek elemanıdır. Bu nedenle hem stratejik olarak hem de taktiksel olarak firmalar için çok önem arz etmektedir. Bilhassa, düzenli hat taşımacılığı sektörü gibi oligopolistik ve değişken volatil pazarlarda. Buna rağmen, fiyat ve fiyatlandırma hem pazarlama alanında hem de düzenli hat taşımacılığı alanında en çok ihmal edilen konudur. Düzenli hat taşımacılığı liner sektörünün özellikleri düşülürse, öngörülemez dalgalanmaların, yüksek değişkenliğin ve çeşitli değişkenlerin fiyat üzerinde etkisinin olduğu bir ortamda fiyat öngörüsü firmalar için yararlı bir araç olabilir. Bu bağlamda, çalışmanın amacı düzenli hat taşımacılığı liner yapan şirketlerin fiyatlandırma kararları için bir öngörü modeli olan yapay sinir ağı modellemektir. Çalışmanın analizi için öncelikle bir deniz taşımacılığı firmasının yöneticileri ile hem yapılandırılmış hem de yapılandırılmamış mülakatlar yapılmıştır. Ardından, analiz için firma kayıtlarından 62 aylık fiyat verisi temin edilmiştir. Fiyata etki eden diğer değişkenler de finansal veri tabanlarından indirilmiştir. Daha sonra, deneme yanılma yolu ile ağ seçilmiş, eğitilip, test edilmiş ve geçerliliği sınanmıştır. Son olarak, bir sonraki ay ağ tarafından başarıyla tahmin edilmiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fiyatlandırma, düzenli hat taşımacılığı liner sektörü, yapay sinir ağları, öngörü modelleri

PRICING DECISIONS IN LINER SHIPPING INDUSTRY: A STUDY ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Öz

Price is the strategic tool of the marketing mix and the only element that generates revenue. Therefore, pricing decisions are both strategically and tactically important for the companies. Particularly, in liner shipping industry which is an oligopolistic and highly volatile market. Despite the fact, price and pricing are the most neglected area of both marketing and liner shipping industry. Considering the characteristics of the liner shipping industry, where there are unpredictable shipping cycles, high volatility and various variables that have an impact on price, there is a need to make forecasts since there are various factors that affect price. In this sense, the purpose of the study is to model an artificial neural network as a forecasting method for pricing strategies of liner shipping companies. For the analysis of the study, first both structured and unstructured interviews conducted with the executives of a shipping company. Afterwards, 62 monthly rate data obtained from the company records. Other variables that have an effect on rate are downloaded from financial databases for the analysis. Then, by trial-and-error the design of the network selected, then trained, tested and validated. Finally, the next month is forecasted successfully by the network

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pricing, liner shipping industry, artificial neural network, forecasting methods

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