SÜT ARZ ZİNCİRİNDE AKSAK REKABET KOŞULLARININ ASİMETRİK HATA DÜZELTME MODELİ İLE ANALİZİ

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 61, 3 - 40, 01.03.2015

Gülden Bölük Süleyman Karaman

Öz

Türkiye süt piyasası son dönemlerde önemli bir yapısal değişim geçirmiş, konsantrasyon oranları artmıştır. Süt piyasasında çiğ süt fiyatlarına göre paketli süt fiyatlarının oldukça yüksek olması, yüksek yoğunlaşma oranları ile birlikte düşünüldüğünde, tedarik zincirinin imalatçı ve perakende aşamalarında üreticilere pazar gücü uygulandığı şeklinde tartışmaları gündeme getirmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye süt tedarik zincirinde pazar gücünün varlığı, üretici süt fiyatı ile perakende süt fiyatı arasındaki asimetrik fiyat geçirgenliğinin tespiti için von Cramon Taubadel tarafından sunulan Asimetrik Hata Düzeltme Modeli Asymmetric Error Correction Model-AECM ile sorgulanmıştır. Çalışmada, Ocak 2003-Aralık 2013 dönemine ait üretici ve perakende süt fiyatları arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin belirlenmesinde İki Aşamalı Engle-Granger ve GregoryHansen eştümleşim testlerinden faydalanılmıştır. Eştümleşim testi sonuçlarına göre, fiyat serileri uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etmektedir, yani eştümleşim bulunmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, süt tedarik zincirinde üretici süt fiyatları ile perakende süt fiyatlarının geçirgenliğinin asimetrik olduğunu göstermektedir. Marjlarda daralmaya neden olacak üretici süt fiyatlarındaki artış, marjlarda artışa sebep olacak üretici süt fiyatındaki düşüşe göre daha hızlı ve büyük oranda perakende süt fiyatlarına yansıtılmaktadır. Çalışma, pozitif fiyat asimetrisinin varlığını ve süt piyasasında pazar gücü uygulamalarına açık oligopolistik bir yapıyı ortaya koymaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Süt Fiyatı, Pozitif Fiyat Asimetrisi, Negatif Fiyat Asimetrisi, Pazar Gücü, Oligopol

ANALYSIS OF IMPERFECT COMPETITION USING ASYMMETRIC ERROR CORRECTION MODEL IN MILK SUPPLY CHAIN

Öz

Turkish milk market has recently undergone a structural restructuring and concentration ratios have increased. Since retail price of milk is quite high compared to price of raw milk and concentration ratio is high, debate that monopoly power is used on producers has come up. In this study, market power was examined by Asymmetric Error Correction Model AECM proposed by von Cramon Taubadel to analyze the transmission between raw milk price and retail milk price. The long-run relationship between these prices was investigated using two step Engle-Granger and Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests and monthly data set covering January 2003-December 2013 periods. According to the results of cointegration tests the price series move together in the long-run, that is, they are cointegrated. Analysis results indicate that price transmission between producer and retail levels is asymmetric in the milk supply chain. Increases in raw milk prices that lead to declines in marketing margins are passed on more quickly and fully to retail prices than decreases in raw milk prices that result in increase in the marketing margins. Results expose positive asymmetric price transmission and an oligopolistic structure which is open to monopoly power abusing in milk market

Anahtar Kelimeler

Milk Price, Positive Asymmetric Price, Negative Price Asymmetry, Market Power, Oligopoly

Kaynakça

• ABDULAI, A. (2002), “Spatial Price Transmission and Asymmetry in the Ghanaian Maize Market”, Journal of Development Economics, No:63(2), s.327- 349.
• ACHARYA, R.N., H.W. KINNUCAN ve S.B. CAUDILL (2011), “Asymmetric farm–retail price transmission and market power: a new test”, Applied Economics, No:43, s.4759-4768.
• ACQUAH, H.D.G. ve E.E. ONUMAH (2010), “A Comparison of the Different Approaches to Detecting Asymmetry in Retail-Wholesale Price Transmission”, American-Eurasian Journal of Scientific Research, No:5(1), s.60-66.
• AGUIAR, D. ve J.A. SANTANA (2002), “Asymmetry in farm to retail price transmission and market integration: vertical and horizontal price linkages for salmon”, Applied Economics, No:39, s.2535-2545.
• AMIKUZUNO, J. ve S. VON CRAMON-TAUBADEL (2013), “Seasonal Variation in Price Transmission between Tomato Market in Ghana”, Journal of African Economies, No:21(4), s.669-686.
• AWOKUSE, T.O. ve X. WANG (2009), “Threshold Effects and Asymmetric Price Adjustments in U.S. Dairy Markets”, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:57(2), s.269-286.
• AYGIN, A.T. ( 2011), AB Üyelik Sürecinde Türkiye Süt Sektörü, TMMOB, I. Konya Kent Sempozyumu, 26-27 Kasım, 2011, Konya, http://www.mmo.org. tr/resimler/dosya_ekler /fd8fab990d683af_ek.pdf?tip i=68&turu=X&sube=14, BACONR, W. (1991), “Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes”, Energy Economics, No:13(3), s.211-218.
• BAILEY, D. ve B.W. BRORSEN (1989), “Price Asymmetry in Spatial Fed Cattle Market”, Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:14(2), s.246-252.
• BALKE, N.S., S.P.A. BROWN ve M.K. YÜCEL (1998), “Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: An asymmetric Relationship?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economic Review, First Quarter, s.2-11.
• BOR Ö., M. ISMIHAN ve A. BAYANER (2014), “Asymmetry in farm-retail price transmission in the Turkish fluid market”, New Medit, No:2, s.2-8.
• BORENSTEIN, S., A.C. CAMERON ve R. GILBERT (1997), “Do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to crude oil price changes?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, No:112, s.305-339.
• BROWN, S.P.A. ve M.K. YÜCEL (2000), “Gasoline and crude oil prices: why asymmetry?” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, Third Quarter, s.23-29.
• BUNTE, F. ve J. PEERLINGS (2003), “Asymmetric Price Transmission Due to Market Power in Case of Supply Shocks”, Agribusiness, No:19(1), s.19-28.
• CUTTS M. ve J. KIRSTEN (2006), “Asymmetric Price Transmission and Market Concentration: an investigation into Four South African Agro-Food Industries”, South African Journal of Economics, No:74(2), s.323-333.
• DAMANIA, R.R. ve B.Z. YANG (1998), “Price Rigidity and Asymmetric Price Adjustment in a repeated Oligopoly”, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, No:154, s.659-679.
• DICKEY, D.A. ve W.A. FULLER (1981), “Likelihood ratio statistics for
• autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Econometrica, No:49(4), s.1057-72. DIGAL, L.N. ve F.Z. AHMADI-ESFAHANI (2002), “Market power analysis in the retail food industry: a survey of methods”, The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, No:46, s.559-584.
• DUTTA, S., M. BERGEN, D. LEVY ve R.VENABLE (1999), “Menu costs, posted prices, and multiproduct retailers”, Journal of, Money, Credit, and Banking, No:31(4), s.683-703.
• ENGEL, R. ve GRANGER C. (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, No:55(2), s.251-76.
• FREY, G. ve M. MANERA (2005), “Econometric Models of Asymmetric Price Transmission, Selected Work”, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, http:// works,bepress,com/matteo_manera/7, Erişim Tarihi: 10.04.2014.
• FROST, D. ve R. BROWDEN (1999), “An Asymmetry Generator for Error- Correction Mechanisms With Application to Bank Mortgage-Rate Dynamics”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, No:17(2), s.253-263.
• GOODWIN, B.K. ve M.T.HOLT (1999), “Price Transmission and asymmetric adjustment in the U,S, Beef Sector”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:81, s.630-637.
• GRANGER, C. W.J. ve T.H. LEE (1989), “Investigation of production, sales and inventory relationships using multicointegration and non-symmetric error correction models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, No:4(1), s.145-159.
• GREGORY A.W. ve B.E. HANSEN (1996a), “Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, No:70, s.99-126.
• GREGORY, A.W. ve B.E. HANSEN (1996b), “Test for cointegration in models with the regime and trend shifts”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, No:58(3), s.555-560.
• GÜNLÜ, A. (2011), “Çiğ Süt Pazarlamasında Süt Sanayi İşletmelerinde Firma Yoğunlaşma Oranlarının Araştırılması: Burdur İli Örneği”, Kafkas Üniversitesi Veterinerlik Fakültesi Dergisi, No:17(1), s.101-106.
• HAHN, V.F. (1990), “Dynamic and Asymmetric Adjustment in Beef and Pork Prices”, Selected Paper for the Presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s 2010 AAEA, CAES&WAEA Joint Meeting, Denver, Colorado, USA, http://ageconsearch,umn,edu/bitstream/61135/2/Dynamic%20 and%20Asymmetric%20Adjustment%20in%20Beef%20and%20Pork%20 Pricesc,pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 03.03.2014.
• HANNAN T.H. ve A.N. BERGER (1991), “The rigidity of prices: Evidence from the banking industry”, American Economic Review, No: 81(4), s.938-945.
• HATIRLI, S.A., B. ÖZKAN, E. JONES ve A.R. AKTAŞ (2006), “Application of measuring market power and cost efficiency in the milk sub-sector in Turkey compared to other European countries”, Trends in food Science & Technology, No:17, s.367-372.
• HOUCK, P.J. (1977), “An approach to specifying and estimating non-reversible functions”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:59(3), s.570-572.
• KAABIA, M.B. ve J.M. GIL (2007), “Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Spanish Lamb Sector”, European Review of Agricultural Economics, No:34(1), s.53-80.
• KINNUCAN, H.W. ve O.D. FORKER (1987), “Asymmetry in Farm-Retail Price Transmission for Major Dairy Products”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:69(2), s.285-292.
• LEVY, D., M. BERGEN, S. DUTTA ve R.VENABLE (1997), “The magnitude of menu cost: Direct evidence from large supermarket chains”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, No:112(3), s.791-382.
• MEYER, J. ve S.VON CRAMON TAUBADEL (2004), “Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey”, Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:55, s.581-611, MOHANTY, S., E.W.F. PETERSON ve N.C. KRUSE (1995), “Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market,” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:43(3), s.355-366.
• ORAL, N. (2009), “Türkiye’de Tarım ve Gıda Sektöründe Yabancılaşma ve Tekelleşme”, Mülkiye Derneği, Bahar, No:23(262), s.325-345.
• PELTZMAN, S. (2000), “Prices Rise Faster than They Fall”, Journal of Political Economy, No:108(3), s.466-502.
• PERRON, P. (1997), “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables”, Journal of Econometrics, No:80(2), s.355-385.
• Rekabet Kurumu (2010), Karar İstatistikleri, Karar Sayısı:10-52/995-359, Karar Tarihi: 05.08.2010, www.rekabet.gov.tr, Erişim Tarihi:05.07.2014.
• Rekabet Kurumu (2012), Türkiye’de HTM Perakendeciliği Sektör İncelemesi Nihai Raporu, Mayıs 2012, Ankara.
• Rekabet Kurumu (2013), Karar İstatistikleri, Rekabet İhlali, www.rekabet.gov.tr, SANER, G. (2012), “Süt Sektöründe Temel Pazarlama Stratejileri”, I. Tire Süt Sempozyumu, http://www,tkmyo,ege,edu,tr/SutSempozyumu/ PazarlamaStrateji,pdf, Erişim Tarihi 07.04.2014.
• SERRA, T. ve B.K. GOODWIN (2003), “Price transmission and asymmetric adjustment in the Spanish dairy sector”, Applied Economics, No:35(18), s.1889- 1899.
• ŞAHİN, A. (2013), Türk Gıda ve İçecek Sanayi 2012 Envanteri, Elma Teknik Basım Matbaacılık, Ankara, Türkiye.
• TEKGÜÇ, H. (2010), “Oligopoly and Price Transmission in Turkey’s Fluid Milk Market, 114th EAAE Seminar, Structural Change in Agriculture”, April 15-16, 2010, Berlin, Germany, http://ageconsearch,umn,edu/bitstream/61087/2/ tekguc1,pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 08.02.2014.
• TEPAV (2012), “Konya’da Tarımsal Sanayide Yapısal Özelliklerin Analizi ve Rekabet Stratejilerinin Belirlenmesi, Sonuç Raporu, Süt ve Süt Ürünleri İmalatı Sektörü”, Konya, http://planlama,mevka,org,tr/attachments/article/128/ Tarimsal%20Sanayide%20Yapisal%20Ozelliklerin%20Analizi,pdf, Tarihi: 05.04.2014.
• Erişim TÜİK (2014), “TÜFE ve ÜFE Endeksleri Madde Fiyatları”, www.tuik.gov.tr, Erişim Tarihi:06.07.2014.
• Ulusal Süt Konseyi (USK) (2013), “Dünya ve Türkiye’de Süt Sektör İstatistikleri”, Ulusal Süt Konseyi (USK), http://www,ulusalsutkonseyi,org,tr/kaynaklar/ arastirma_dosyalar/2014_05_22_905419,pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2014.
• UYSAL, P. (2012), Türkiye Süt ve Kırmızı Et Piyasalarında Asimetrik Fiyat Davranışı, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Akdeniz Üniversitesi, İİBF, İktisat ABD, Antalya.
• VAVRA, P. ve B.K. GOODWIN (2005), “Analysis of Price Transmission Along the Food Chain”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Working Papers, No:3, http://www,oecd,org/agriculture/agricultural-policies/40459642.pdf, Tarihi: 10.06.2014.
• Erişim VON CRAMON-TAUBADEL, S. (1996), “An Investigation of Non-Linearity in Error Correction Representations of Agricultural Price Transmission”, Contributed Paper, VIII Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Edinburgh.
• WARD, R.W. (1982), “Asymmetry in Retail, Wholesale and Shipping Point Pricing for fresh Vegetables”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:62, s.205-212.
• WOLFRAM, R. (1971), “Positivistic measures of aggregate supply elasticities: some new approaches-some critical notes”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, No:53(2), s.356-359.