Investigation of Drought in Turkey with the Resilience Index Developed Based on Socio-Economic and Biophysical Components

Öz

The concept of resilience can be applied to ecological systems as well as human-environment and socio-ecological ecosystems. This paper presents a conceptual framework for understanding and evaluating the resilience of a human-environmental system to drought hazard. In this context, the proposed conceptual framework has been operationalized based on socioeconomic data and applied to all provinces in Turkey. In the first part of the study, drought intensity was computed using Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (SPEI) and Run Theory techniques to identify the "exposure" pattern of Turkey's drought vulnerability. To determine the relative weight values of the stated indicators and variables, the Analytical Hierarchy Process method was employed. Then, by integrating the sub-variables under the relevant indicators, three indices known as the "Economic, Social, and Structural Resilience Index" were established. The "Socio-Economic Resilience Index" was created in the last step by combining drought intensity and sub-indices. According to the study's findings, the provinces with the lowest "drought resilience" are spread across the country's Eastern Mediterranean Region, Southeast, and Eastern Anatolia Regions. According to the results, Adana, Adıyaman, Mersin, Osmaniye, Kahramanmaraş, and Diyarbakır have the lowest levels of drought resistance. On the other hand, the provinces of the Black Sea and Marmara Regions have been found to have the highest resilience. Additionally, Bartın, Rize, Artvin, Ardahan, Bursa, and Sinop were shown to have the highest levels of resilience. The findings demonstrate that the Eastern Mediterranean and Southeastern Anatolia have a startlingly low "drought resilience." The climate of the concerned regions, which is prone to drought, can be cited as a potential explanation for this outcome. Thought to play a significant role in drought resilience is its socio-economic component.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Drought
• Drought Hazard
• Drought Resilience
• AHP
• SPEI
• Turkey

Sosyo-Ekonomik ve Biyofiziksel Bileşenlerine Dayalı Geliştirilen Dirençlilik İndeksi ile Türkiye'de Kuraklığın İncelenmesi

Öz

Dirençlilik kavramı ekolojik sistemlere olduğu gibi insan-çevre ve sosyo-ekolojik ekosistemlere de uygulanabilir. Bu çalışma, bir insan–çevre sistemi olan, kuraklık tehlikesinin dirençliliğini anlama ve değerlendirmek amacıyla geliştirilen bir kavramsal çerçeve önermektedir. Bu bağlamda, geliştirilen kavramsal çerçeve sosyo-ekonomik göstergelere dayalı olarak operasyonel hale getirilmiş ve Türkiye’deki tüm illere uygulanmıştır. Çalışmada, ilk adımda Türkiye’nin kuraklık tehlikesine "maruz kalma" örüntüsünü ortaya çıkarmak için Standartlaştırılmış Yağış ve Evapotranspirasyon (SPEI) ve Gidiş Teorisi (Run) yaklaşımlarına dayalı kuraklık yoğunluğu hesaplanmıştır. Tanımlanan gösterge ve değişkenlerin göreceli ağırlık değerlerini bulmak için ise Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ardından, alt-değişkenler ilgili göstergeler altında birleştirilerek, "Ekonomik, Sosyal ve Yapısal Dirençlilik İndeksi" olarak isimlendirilen üç indeks geliştirilmiştir. Sonuncu adımda, kuraklık yoğunluğu ve alt indekslerin birleşiminden ise "Kuraklık Dirençliliği İndeksi" elde edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları "kuraklık dirençliliğin" en düşük olduğu illerin ülkenin Doğu Akdeniz Bölümü, Güneydoğu ve Doğu Anadolu Bölgelerinde üzerinde dağılış göstermektedir. Kuraklık dirençliliğin en düşük olduğu iller ise sırasıyla Adana, Adıyaman, Mersin, Osmaniye, Kahramanmaraş ve Diyarbakır olarak tespit edilmiştir. Diğer taraftan, dirençliliği en yüksek yerler Karadeniz ve Marmara Bölgelerindeki illerde olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, dirençliliği en yüksek iller sırasıyla Bartın, Rize, Artvin, Ardahan, Bursa ve Sinop olarak bulunmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlar Doğu Akdeniz ve Güneydoğu Anadolu'nun "kuraklık dirençliliğinin" çarpıcı bir şekilde düşük olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonucun muhtemel bir nedeni söz konusu bölgelerin kuraklığa eğilimli iklimi olduğu söylenebilir. Ancak, sosyo-ekonomik bileşeninde kuraklık dirençliliğini etkileyen önemli bir faktör olduğu düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuraklık
• Kuraklık Tehlikesi
• Kuraklık Dirençliliği
• AHP
• SPEI
• Türkiye

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