A Multi-Scale Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assesment (C-VRA) Methodology for Corporate Scale Investments: West Bank-Palestine Case Study

Öz

Assessing climate vulnerability and risk has become a critical part of feasibility studies for infrastructure investments due to the increased frequency and severity of atmospheric disasters. However, evaluating climate parameters and disturbances can become challenging in vulnerable regions, such as the dry Mediterranean terrain. This is why climate vulnerability and risk assessment (C-VRA) should cover several parameters and factors besides climate analysis. In our case, the political stress and conflicts between Palestine and Israel settlements in the West Bank add additional risks and vulnerabilities. Our paper presents a C-VRA in the Nabi Saleh Village-West Bank of Palestine, where a dairy factory with a wastewater treatment plant will be built. The factory is estimated to use around 120 m3 of water daily and produce wastewater that will be treated and reused for agricultural irrigation. Unfortunately, the current practice in the region is to use untreated wastewater to irrigate trees and vegetables without restraint since the treatment capacity is low, and a large part of the wastewater is discharged untreated into the streams. The dairy factory is planned on a ridge at the upper watershed (headwater) of the 1795.04 km2 Yarkon Rive r basin. The local communities in the region are vulnerable to climate change impacts and related atmospheric disasters due to poverty, agriculture dependency, and political issues. To evaluate future climate projections, we used the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 6 (IPCC AR6) methodology. We also used the Mann-Kendal test to analyze the historical trend of climate parameters and projections for three scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) of AR6 for a future period until 2080, considering the life span of the investments and water-specific physical climate risks. Results showed that the historical temperature had a statistically significant increasing trend projected to continue in the next 60 years. Additionally, according to all three scenarios, the precipitation in the region will decrease in the coming decades. As a result, we identified one high (water scarcity) and two moderate-level risks (rainfall decrease and drought) for the corporate, all related to water security. Our methodology incorporates basin-scale assessments with regional and local vulnerabilities, making it a potential tool for critical infrastructure investments elsewhere.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change
• vulnerability
• risk
• wastewater reuse
• watershed management

Kurumsal Yatırımlara Yönelik Çok Ölçekli İklim Kırılganlık ve Risk Değerlendirme (I-KRD) Metodolojisi: Batı Şeria-Filistin Örnek Çalışması

Öz

Atmosferik afetlerin sıklık ve şiddetindeki artış tahminleri nedeniyle, iklim kırılganlığı ve risk değerlendirmeleri (I-KRD), altyapı fizibilite çalışmalarının önemli bileşenleri haline gelmiştir. Genellikle iklim parametrelerinin ve dış etkenlerin temel bir değerlendirmesi olarak ifade edilebilen bu değerlendirmeler, kurak ve yarı kurak Akdeniz gibi hassas bölgelerde zorlu bir teknik çalışma haline gelebilmektedir. Dolayısıyla, I-KRD sadece iklim parametrelerinin analizinden ibaret olmayıp, ilgili konuya yönelik çeşitli parametre ve faktörleri de kapsayabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Batı Şeria'daki Filistin ve İsrail yerleşimleri arasındaki politik gerginlik ve çatışmalar, başta su güvenliği ve güvencesi olmak üzere ilişkili ek riskler ve kırılganlıklar dikkate alınmıştır. Makalede, Filistin'in Batı Şeria Nabi Saleh Köyü'nde inşa edilmesi planlanan bir süt fabrikası ve onunla entegre atık su arıtma tesisine yönelik bir I-KRD çalışmasının yaklaşım ve metodolojisi sunulmuştur. Fabrikanın günde yaklaşık 120 m3 su kullanıp, çıkan atık suyu arıtıp, tarımsal sulama için yeniden kullanımı planlanmıştır. Bölgede arıtma kapasitesinin düşük olması nedeniyle atık suların büyük bir kısmı, halihazırda, arıtılmadan tarımsal amaçlı kullanılmakta veya derelere deşarj edilmektedir. Süt fabrikası, 1795.04 km2’ lik Yarkon Nehri havzasının yukarı havzasında (memba kısmında) bir sırt üzerinde planlanmıştır. Bölgedeki yerel topluluklar, yoksulluk, tarıma bağımlılık ve politik sorunlar nedeniyle iklim değişikliğinin etkilerine ve buna bağlı atmosferik afetlere karşı büyük ölçüde savunmasızdır. Analiz kapsamında gelecekteki iklim risklerini değerlendirmek için Hükümetler arası İklim Değişikliği Değerlendirme Raporu 6 (IPCC AR6) metodolojisi baz alınmıştır. İklim parametrelerinin tarihsel eğilimini analiz etmek için Mann-Kendall testi, yatırımların ömrü ve suya özgü fiziksel iklim risklerini göz önünde bulunduracak şekilde 2080 yılına kadarki dönemi yansıtacak şekilde iyimser (SSP1-1.9), orta (SSP2-4.5) ve kötümser (SSP5-8.5) olmak üzere üç farklı senaryo için AR6 projeksiyonlarına yer verilmiştir. Sonuçlar, geçmiş ortalama sıcaklığın önümüzdeki 60 yılda devam etmesi öngörülen istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir artış eğilimine sahip olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Dahası, her üç senaryoya göre de bölgedeki yağışların önümüzdeki on yıllarda azalması beklenmektedir. Bundan yola çıkılarak, yatırım için tümü su güvencesi ile ilgili olacak şekilde bir yüksek (su kıtlığı) ve iki orta düzeyde risk (yağış azalması ve kuraklık) belirlenmiştir. Havza ölçeğinde değerlendirmelerle bölgesel ve yerel kırılganlıkları birleştiren çok ölçekli metodolojimiz, çeşitli kritik altyapı yatırımlarına uyarlanma ve uygulanma potansiyeline sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim değişikliği
• kırılganlık
• risk
• atıksu yeniden kullanımı
• havza yönetimi.

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