Gumbel Uç Değerler Yöntemi ile Ankara İli ve Yakın Civarının Deprem Tehlike Analizi

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, 1900 – 2020 yılları arasında meydana gelmiş Mw ≥ 4.0 olan deprem verilerinden yararlanarak ve Gumbel Uç Değerler Yöntemi’ni kullanarak Türkiye’nin başkenti olan Ankara ilini depremsellik ve deprem tehlikesi açısından incelemek ve deprem tehlike parametrelerini belirlemektir. Ankara ilinin deprem tehlike analizi 380 – 420 K enlem ve 300 – 350 D boylam koordinatları ile sınırlandırılmış alan içinde yer alan sekiz kaynak bölge içine düşen depremlerden yararlanarak yapılmıştır. Her kaynak bölgede hasara neden olabilecek büyüklükteki depremlerin yinelenme aralıkları, olası maksimum deprem büyüklükleri ve farklı büyüklükteki depremlerin oluşma olasılıkları saptanmıştır. Ankara ili ve yakın civarı içinde gelecek 100 yıl içinde Mw ≥ 7.0 büyüklüğündeki bir depremin meydana gelme ihtimalinin Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu kaynak bölgesinde (Bölge 1) en yüksek olduğu (%90) ve bunun dönüş periyodunun 43 yıl olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ankara
• Deprem
• Deprem tehlikesi
• Gumbel yöntemi

Earthquake Hazard Analysis of Ankara Province and Its Surroundings with Gumbel Extreme Values Method

Öz

The aim of the study is to examine Ankara, the capital of Türkiye, in terms of seismicity and earthquake hazard, and to determine earthquake hazard parameters, by using earthquake data with Mw ≥ 4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2020 and using the Gumbel Extreme Value Method. The earthquake hazard analysis of Ankara province was made by using earthquakes falling in eight source regions within the area limited by the coordinates of 380 – 420 N latitude and 300 – 350 E longitude. Recurrence intervals of earthquakes large enough to cause damage in each source region, possible maximum earthquake magnitudes and probabilities of earthquakes of different magnitudes have been determined. It has been found that the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw ≥ 7.0 occurring in Ankara province and its immediate surroundings in the next 100 years is highest (90%) in the source region of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Zone 1) and its return period is 43 years.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ankara
• Earthquake
• Earthquake hazard
• Gumbel method

Kaynakça

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