Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in terms of Global Performance Indicators

Öz

Many countries are exposed to the effects of global climate change at different aspects, and the vulnerability levels of these countries can vary based on the socioeconomic and environmental factors. Specifically, knowledge and awareness of the exposure level of individuals, societies, and countries to the impacts and risks of climate change, their vulnerability levels, and the meaning of high or low adaptive capacity for them as well as what needs to be done are crucial for the continuity of vital activities. Therefore, in this review, the current situation, and future projections of climate change risks for Asia, Europe, Africa, Australasia, North, Central and South America, small islands, and polar regions as well as the countries in all these regions, within these indicators, were examined based on physical, geographical, socioeconomic and demographic factors, and various current indices are evaluated relying on the review. These indices have been evaluated in various aspects, both globally and for Turkey, in terms of climate change-related vulnerability and risk assessment, exposure to these impacts and risks, resilience and adaptive capacity levels. The general findings in the review point to Africa as the country most affected by climate change risks via its high exposure to climate risks and low capacity. On the other hand, the developed European countries, America, and Canada, are the least affected by climate risks due to their high adaptive capacities. The findings also point out that Turkey is moderately affected to climate change risks since its exposure to climate risks is greater than its adaptive capacity. However, the issues of access to safe water and food could occur in the future because of climate change, and the migration to Turkey from neighboring countries with higher vulnerability be expected to increase the vulnerability to a higher level with the rising population pressure.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change
• climate change risks
• exposure
• vulnerability
• resilience
• adaptive capacity

İklim Değişikliği Etkilerinin Küresel Performans Göstergeleri Açısından Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Birçok ülke küresel iklim değişikliğinin etkilerine farklı seviyelerde maruz kalmakta ve bu ülkelerin bazı sosyoekonomik ve çevresel faktörlere dayalı etkilenebilirlik seviyeleri değişiklik gösterebilmektedir. Özellikle bireyler, toplumlar ve ülkelerin iklim değişikliğinin etki ve risklerine ne kadar açık olduğu, etkilenebilirlik seviyeleri ve onlar için yüksek ya da düşük uyarlanabilir kapasitenin ne anlama geldiği ve yapılması gerekenlere dair bilgi ve farkındalık, temel yaşamsal faaliyetlerin devamlılığı için oldukça önemlidir. Bu nedenle bu derleme çalışmasında Asya, Avrupa, Afrika, Avustralasya, Kuzey, Orta ve Güney Amerika’nın yanı sıra küçük adalar ve kutup bölgeleri ile tüm bu bölgelerde yer alan ülkelerin iklim değişikliği risklerine karşı bu göstergeler dâhilinde mevcut durumları ve gelecek öngörüleri fiziki, coğrafi, sosyoekonomik ve demografik faktörler temelinde incelenmiş ve inceleme kapsamında çeşitli güncel indislere yer verilmiştir. Bu indisler hem küresel olarak hem de Türkiye açısından iklim değişikliği kaynaklı etkilenebilirlik ve risk değerlendirmesi, bu etki ve risklere maruziyet, dirençlilik ve uyarlanabilir kapasite düzeyleri açısından çeşitli yönleriyle ele alınmıştır. Çalışmadaki genel bulgular iklim değişikliği risklerinden en çok etkilenen ülkeler olarak iklim risklerine yüksek maruziyeti ve düşük kapasitesi nedeniyle Afrika ülkelerini işaret etmektedir. Diğer taraftan yüksek uyarlanabilir kapasitelerine bağlı olarak gelişmiş Avrupa ülkeleri, Amerika ve Kanada iklim risklerinden en az etkilenen yerler olarak görülmektedir. Bulgular ayrıca Türkiye’nin iklim risklerine maruziyetinin uyarlanabilir kapasitesinden daha fazla olması nedeniyle bu risklerden orta derecede etkileneceğine dikkat çekmektedir. Ancak, iklim değişikliğine bağlı gelecekte oluşabilecek güvenli su ve gıdaya erişim problemi ve etkilenebilirliği daha yüksek komşu ülkelerden Türkiye’ye kitlesel insan hareketi akışının artan nüfus baskısıyla bu etkilenebilirliği daha üst seviyeye taşıması beklenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim değişikliği
• iklim değişikliği riskleri
• maruziyet
• etkilenebilirlik
• dirençlilik
• uyarlanabilir kapasite

Kaynakça

1. Abram, N. J., Henley, B. J., Gupta, A. S., Lippmann, T. J., Clarke, H., Dowdy, A. J., & Boer, M. M. (2021). Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia. Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1), 1-17.
2. An, N., Turp, M. T., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2021). Assessment of Climate Suitability for Prunus armeniaca L. in Turkey in a Changing Climate (No. EGU21-5382). Copernicus Meetings.
3. An, N., Turp, M. T., Türkeş, M., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2020a). Mid-Term Impact of Climate Change on Hazelnut Yield. Agriculture, 10(5), 159.
4. An, N., Turp, M. T., Türkeş, M., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2020b). Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Production: A Short Review. Current Investigations in Agriculture and Current Research, 8(3). CIACR.MS.ID.000288. DOI: 10.32474/CIACR.2020.08.000288.
5. Bauer, A., Feichtinger, J., & Steurer, R. (2012). The governance of climate change adaptation in 10 OECD countries: challenges and approaches. Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 14(3), 279-304.
6. Brooks, N., Adger, W. N., & Kelly, P. M. (2005). The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global environmental change, 15(2), 151-163.
7. Calda, B., An, N., Turp, M.T., & Kurnaz, M.L. (2020). İklim Değişikliğinin Akdeniz Havzasındaki Orman Yangınlarına Etkisi. International journal of advances in engineering and pure sciences. doi:10.7240/jeps.571001
8. Challinor, A., Wheeler, T., Garforth, C., Craufurd, P., & Kassam, A. (2007). Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change. Climatic change, 83(3), 381-399.

9. Chen, C., Hellmann, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Noble, I., & Regan, P. (2018). A global assessment of adaptation investment from the perspectives of equity and efficiency. Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 23(1), 101-122.
10. Chen, C., Noble, I., Hellmann, J., Coffee, J., Murillo, M., & Chawla, N. (2015). University of Notre Dame global adaptation index country index technical report. ND-GAIN: South Bend, IN, USA.
11. Closset, M., Feindouno, S., Guillaumont, P., & Simonet, C. (2017). A Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index: Which are the most vulnerable developing countries?.
12. Cutter, S. L., Boruff, B. J., & Shirley, W. L. (2003). Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social science quarterly, 84(2), 242-261.
13. Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığı. (2012). Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği Uyum Stratejisi ve Eylem Planı: 2011-2023. T.C. Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığı, Ankara.
14. Çolak, E., & Sunar, F. (2020). Evaluation of forest fire risk in the Mediterranean Turkish forests: A case study of Menderes region, Izmir. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 45, 101479.
15. Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Giorgi, F. (2012). Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble. Climatic change, 114(3), 813-822.
16. Diffenbaugh, N. S., Pal, J. S., Giorgi, F., & Gao, X. (2007). Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(11).
17. Eakin, H., Muñoz-Erickson, T. A., & Lemos, M. C. (2018). Critical lines of action for vulnerability and resilience research and practice: Lessons from the 2017 hurricane season. Journal of Extreme Events, 5(02n03), 1850015.
18. Ekici, M. (2019). İklim Değişikliğine Direnç: Yerküre için Karbon Detoksu (Karbon Arınımı). Resilience. https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.518523
19. Feindouno, S., Guillaumont, P., & Simonet, C. (2020). The Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index: An Index to Be Used for International Policy. Ecological Economics, 176, 106752. Feindouno, S., & Guillaumont, P. (2019). Measuring physical vulnerability to climate change: The PVCCI, an index to be used for international development policies.
20. Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., van Aalst, R. A., Adger, W. N., Arent, D. J., Barnett, J., Betts, R., Bilir, T. E., Birkmann, J., Carmin, J., Chadee, D.D., Challinor, A. J., Chatterjee, M., Cramer, W., Davidson, D. J., Estrada, Y. O., Gattuso, J.-P., Hijioka, Y., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Huang, H. Q., Insarov, G. E., Jones, R. N., Kovats, R. S., Romero-Lankao, P., Larsen, J. N., Losada, I. J., Marengo, J. A., McLean, R. F., Mearns, L. O., Mechler, R., Morton, J. F., Niang, I., Oki, T., Olwoch, J. M., Opondo, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Pörtner, H. O., Redsteer, M. H., Reisinger, A., Revi, A., Schmidt, D. N., Shaw, M. R., Solecki, W., Stone, D. A., Stone, J. M. R., Strzepek, K. M., Suarez, A. G., Tschakert, P., Valentini, R., Vicuna, S., Villamizar, A., Vincent, K. E., Warren, R., White, L. L., Wilbanks, T. J., Wong, P. P., & Yohe, G. W. (2014). Technical summary. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 35-94.
21. Flanagan, B. E., Gregory, E. W., Hallisey, E. J., Heitgerd, J. L., & Lewis, B. (2011). A social vulnerability index for disaster management. Journal of homeland security and emergency management, 8(1).
22. Füssel, H. M. (2010). Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and impacts.
23. Guillaumont, P., & Simonet, C. (2011). To what extent are African countries vulnerable to climate change? Lessons from a new Indicator of Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change. Development, 6, 1-8.
24. Hahn, M. B., Riederer, A. M., & Foster, S. O. (2009). The Livelihood Vulnerability Index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change—A case study in Mozambique. Global environmental change, 19(1), 74-88.
25. Hall, N. L., & Crosby, L. (2020). Climate Change Impacts on Health in Remote Indigenous Communities in Australia. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 1-16.
26. Hepbilgin, B., & Koç, T. (2018). Bölgesel Sıcaklık ve Yağış Verilerine Göre Kazdağı ve Yakın Çevresinin İkliminde Öngörülen Değişiklikler (2000-2099). Marmara Coğrafya Dergisi, (37), 253-270.
27. Hijioka, Y., Lin, E., Pereira, J.J., Corlett, R.T., Cui, X., Insarov, G.E., Lasco, R.D., Lindgren, E., & Surjan, A. (2014). Asia. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1327-1370.
28. Hunter, C. M., Caswell, H., Runge, M. C., Regehr, E. V., Amstrup, S. C., & Stirling, I. (2010). Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis. Ecology, 91(10), 2883-2897.
29. Huong, N. T. L., Yao, S., & Fahad, S. (2019). Assessing household livelihood vulnerability to climate change: The case of Northwest Vietnam. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 25(5), 1157-1175.
30. Hurlbert, M., Krishnaswamy, J., Davin, E., Johnson, F. X., Mena, C. F., Morton, J., Myeong, S., Viner, D., Warner, K., Wreford, A., Zakieldeen, S., & Zommers, Z. (2019). Risk Management and Decision making in Relation to Sustainable Development. In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems.In press.
31. Iavarone, A. H., & Kaya, İ. (2021). Deniz Seviyesinde Yükselme Riskleri Odağında Kentlerin İklim Eylem Planı Söylemlerinin İncelenmesi. Resilience, 5(1), 51-66.
32. IPCC, (2012). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.
33. IPCC, (2014a). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 688.
34. IPCC, (2014b). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pp.
35. IPCC, (2018). Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. In Press
36. IPCC, (2019). Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. In press.
37. IPCC, (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
38. Kadıoğlu, M. (2012). Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliği Risk Yönetimi. Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği II. Ulusal Bildiriminin Hazırlanması Projesi Yayını, 172.
39. Kaly, U., Pratt, C., Mitchell, J., & Howorth, R. (2003). The demonstration environmental vulnerability index (EVI). Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC).
40. Kaly, U., Briguglio, L., McLeod, H., Schmall, S., Pratt, C., & Pal, R. (1999). Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) to summarise national environmental vulnerability profiles. SOPAC.
41. Kapluhan, E. (2013). Türkiye’de Kuraklık ve Kuraklığın Tarıma Etkisi. Marmara Coğrafya Dergisi, (27), 487-510.
42. Karapınar, B., Özertan, G., Tanaka, T., An, N., & Turp, M. T. (2020). İklim Değişikliği Etkisi Altında Tarımsal Ürün Arzının Sürdürülebilirliği (Yayın No: TÜSİAD-T/2020-03/616). Tarım ve Gıda 2020.
43. Kovats, R.S., R. Valentini, L.M. Bouwer, E. Georgopoulou, Jacob, D., Martin, E., Rounsevell, M., & Soussana, J.-F. (2014). Europe. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1267-1326.
44. Larsen, J. N., Anisimov, O. A., Constable, A., Hollowed, A. B., Maynard, N., Prestrud, P., Prowse, T. D., & Stone, J. M. R. (2014). Polar regions. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1567-1612.
45. Lilleor, H. B., & Van den Broeck, K. (2011). Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs. Global Environmental Change, 21(S1), S70-S81.
46. Liverman, D. M. (1990). Vulnerability to global environmental change. Understanding global environmental change: The contributions of risk analysis and management, 26, 27-44.
47. Macinnis‐Ng, C., Mcintosh, A. R., Monks, J. M., Waipara, N., White, R. S., Boudjelas, S., Clark, C. D., Clearwater, M. J., Curran, T. J., Dickinson, K. J. M., Nelson, N., Perry, G. L. W., Richardson, S. J., Stanley, M. C., & Peltzer, D. A. (2021). Climate‐change impacts exacerbate conservation threats in island systems: New Zealand as a case study. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.
48. Madhuri, M., Tewari, H. R., & Bhowmick, P. K. (2014). Livelihood Vulnerability Index Analysis: An Approach to Study Vulnerability in the Context of Bihar. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 6(1). doi: https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v6i1.127.
49. Magrin, G.O., Marengo, J.A., Boulanger, J.-P., Buckeridge, M.S., Castellanos, E., Poveda, G., Scarano, F. R., & Vicuña, S. (2014). Central and South America. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1499-1566.
50. Mall, R. K., Srivastava, R. K., Banerjee, T., Mishra, O. P., Bhatt, D., & Sonkar, G. (2019). Disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation over south Asia: challenges and ways forward. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 10(1), 14-27.
51. Manandhar, S., Xenarios, S., Schmidt-Vogt, D., Hergarten, C., & Foggin, M. (2018). Climate Vulnerability & Adaptive Capacity of Mountain Societies in Central Asia.
52. McMichael, A. J., & Lindgren, E. (2011). Climate change: present and future risks to health, and necessary responses. Journal of internal medicine, 270(5), 401-413.
53. Meredith, M., Sommerkorn, M., Cassotta, S., Derksen, C., Ekaykin, A., Hollowed, A., Kofinas, G., Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M. M. C., Ottersen, G., Pritchard, H., & Schuur, E.A.G. (2019). Polar Regions. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. In press.
54. McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., & White, K. S. (Eds.). (2001). Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Vol. 2). Cambridge University Press.
55. Moser, C., Norton, A., Stein, A., & Georgieva, S. (2010). Pro-poor adaptation to climate change in urban centers: Case studies of vulnerability and resilience in Kenya and Nicaragua.
56. Monterroso, A., & Conde, C. (2015). Exposure to climate and climate change in Mexico. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 6(4), 272-288.
57. Mwangi, K. K., & Mutua, F. (2015). Modeling Kenya’s vulnerability to climate change–A multifactor approach. International Journal of Science and Research, 6, 12-19.
58. Myers, N. (2002). Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 357(1420), 609-613.
59. Nagy, G. J., Gutierrez, O., Brugnoli, E., Verocai, J. E., Gomez-Erache, M., Villamizar, A., Olivares, I., Azeiteiro, U. M., Filho, W.L., & Amaro, N. (2019). Climate vulnerability, impacts and adaptation in Central and South America coastal areas. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 29, 100683.
60. ND-GAIN, (2018a). ND-GAIN Country Index, Vulnerability and Readiness. University of Notre Dame, South Bend IN, USA Retrieved from. https://gain.nd.edu.
61. ND-GAIN, (2018b). ND-GAIN Data. University of Notre Dame, South Bend IN, USA Retrieved from. https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/download-data/.
62. Niang, I., Ruppel, O.C., Abdrabo, M.A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham, J., & Urquhart, P. (2014). Africa. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199-1265.
63. Nguyen, C. V., Horne, R., Fien, J., & Cheong, F. (2017). Assessment of social vulnerability to climate change at the local scale: development and application of a Social Vulnerability Index. Climatic Change, 143(3), 355-370.
64. Nguyen, T. T., Bonetti, J., Rogers, K., & Woodroffe, C. D. (2016). Indicator-based assessment of climate-change impacts on coasts: A review of concepts, methodological approaches and vulnerability indices. Ocean & Coastal Management, 123, 18-43.
65. Nurse, L.A., McLean, R.F., Agard, J., Briguglio, L.P., Duvat-Magnan, V., Pelesikoti, N., Tompkins, E., & Webb, A. (2014). Small islands. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1613-1654.
66. O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U., Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, H., Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaard, L. & West, J. (2004). Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India. Global environmental change, 14(4), 303-313.
67. Oppenheimer, M. (2013). Climate change impacts: accounting for the human response. Climatic Change, 117(3), 439-449.
68. Ozturk, T., Turp, M.T., Türkeş, M., & Kurnaz, M.L. (2018). Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4. Atmospheric Research, 206, 87–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.009
69. Özüpekçe, S. (2020). Batı Akdeniz Havzasının İklim Sınıflandırması, Kuraklık Eğilimi ve Su Kaynakları ile İlişkisi. Lnternational journal of geography and geography education. doi:10.32003/igge.790949
70. Parry, M., Parry, M. L., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., Van der Linden, P., & Hanson, C. (Eds.). (2007). Climate change 2007-impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working group II contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC (Vol. 4). Cambridge University Press.
71. Piguet, E. (2013). From “primitive migration” to “climate refugees”: The curious fate of the natural environment in migration studies. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 103(1), 148-162.
72. Pratt, C., Kaly, U., & Mitchell, J. (2004). Manual: how to use the environmental vulnerability index (EVI).
73. Pulwarty, R. S., Nurse, L. A., & Trotz, U. O. (2010). Caribbean islands in a changing climate. Environment, 52(6), 16-27.
74. Reisinger, A., Kitching, R.L., Chiew, F., Hughes, L., Newton, P.C.D., Schuster, S.S., Tait, A., & Whetton, P. (2014). Australasia. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1371-1438.
75. Ribeiro, B. R., Sales, L. P., De Marco Jr, P., & Loyola, R. (2016). Assessing mammal exposure to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon. PloS one, 11(11), e0165073.
76. Robinson, S. A. (2020). Climate change adaptation in SIDS: A systematic review of the literature pre and post the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 11(4), e653.
77. Romero-Lankao, P., Smith, J.B., Davidson, D.J., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Kinney, P.L., Kirshen, P., Kovacs, P., & Villers Ruiz, L. (2014). North America. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1439-1498.
78. Saldana-Zorrilla, S. O., & Sandberg, K. (2009). Impact of climate-related disasters on human migration in Mexico: a spatial model. Climatic change, 96(1), 97-118.
79. Sarkodie, S. A., & Strezov, V. (2019). Economic, social and governance adaptation readiness for mitigation of climate change vulnerability: Evidence from 192 countries. Science of the Total Environment, 656, 150-164.
80. Schauser, I., Otto, S., Schneiderbauer, S., Harvey, A., Hodgson, N., Robrecht, H., Morchain, D., Schrander, J. J., Khovanskaia, M., Celikyilmaz-Aydemir, G., Prutsch, A., & McCallum, S. (2010). Urban regions: vulnerabilities, vulnerability assessments by indicators and adaptation options for climate change impacts. European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC): Bilthoven.
81. Schilling, J., Hertig, E., Tramblay, Y., & Scheffran, J. (2020). Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa. Regional Environmental Change, 20(1), 1-12.
82. Schilling, J., Freier, K. P., Hertig, E., & Scheffran, J. (2012). Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 156, 12-26.
83. Scott, J. (2007). Agricultural policy and rural: poverty in Mexico. http://hdl.handle.net/11651/1152
84. Shah, K. U., Dulal, H. B., Johnson, C., & Baptiste, A. (2013). Understanding livelihood vulnerability to climate change: Applying the livelihood vulnerability index in Trinidad and Tobago. Geoforum, 47, 125-137.
85. Skondras, N. A., Karavitis, C. A., Gkotsis, I. I., Scott, P. J. B., Kaly, U. L., & Alexandris, S. G. (2011). Application and assessment of the Environmental Vulnerability Index in Greece. Ecological Indicators, 11(6), 1699-1706.
86. Smit, B., & Wandel, J. (2006). Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global environmental change, 16(3), 282-292.
87. Tacoli, C. (2011). Not only climate change: mobility, vulnerability and socio-economic transformations in environmentally fragile areas in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania. International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), Human Settlements Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 28, IIED, London.
88. Tapia, C., Abajo, B., Feliu, E., Mendizabal, M., Martinez, J. A., Fernández, J. G., Laburu, T., & Lejarazu, A. (2017). Profiling urban vulnerabilities to climate change: An indicator-based vulnerability assessment for European cities. Ecological indicators, 78, 142-155.
89. Tewari, H. R., & Bhowmick, P. K. (2014). Livelihood vulnerability index analysis: An approach to study vulnerability in the context of Bihar.
90. Tramblay, Y., Koutroulis, A., Samaniego, L., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Volaire, F., Boone, A., Le Page, M., Llasat, M. C., Albergel, C., Burak, S., Cailleret, M., Kalin, K. C., Davi, H., Dupuy, J.-L., Greve, P., Grillakis, M., Hanich, L., Jarlan, L., Martin-StPaul, N., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Mouillote, F., Pulido-Velazquez, D., Quintana-Seguí, P., Renard, D., Turco, M., Türkeş, M., Trigo, R., Vidal, J. P., Vilagrosa, A., Zribi, M., & Polcher, J. (2020). Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios. Earth-science Reviews, 210, 103348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348
91. Turp, M. T., Öztürk, T., Türkeş, M., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2014). Assessment of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation over the Mediterranean region via multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP5 models. Black Sea/Mediterranean Environment, 93.
92. Türkeş, M. (2017). Türkiye’nin İklimsel Değişkenlik ve Sosyo-Ekolojik Göstergeler Açısından Kuraklıktan Etkilenebilirlik ve Risk Çözümlemesi. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 26(2), 47-70.
93. Türkeş, M. (2018). İklim Değişikliğinin Etkileri, Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği Uyum Gereksinimleri, Etkilenebilirlik ve Risk Değerlendirmeleri. İklim Değişikliği ve Kalkınma (Ed. İzzet Arı). T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı, Ankara
94. Türkeş, M. & Şahin, S. (2018). Türkiye’nin fırtına afeti etkilenebilirliği ve risk çözümlemesi. Kebikeç, insan bilimleri için kaynak araştırmaları dergisi, 46: 219-246.
95. Turkes, M., Turp, M. T., An, N., Ozturk, T., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2020). Impacts of climate change on precipitation climatology and variability in Turkey. In Water resources of Turkey (pp. 467-491). Springer, Cham.
96. Türkeş, M. (2020). İklim Değişikliğinin Tarımsal Üretim ve Gıda Güvenliğine Etkileri: Bilimsel Bir Değerlendirme. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 29(1), 125-149.
97. Türkeş, M. (2021). Türkiye’nin Su İklimi, İklim Değişikliği ve 2019-2020 Kuraklığı. EKOIQ, 92, 90-97.
98. UN. 2017. International Migration Report 2017: Highlights. United Nations, New York.
99. Welborn, L. (2018). Africa and climate change-projecting vulnerability and adaptive capacity. ISS Africa Report, 2018(14), 1-24.
100. Welle, T., & Birkmann, J. (2015). The World Risk Index–An approach to assess risk and vulnerability on a global scale. Journal of Extreme Events, 2(01), 1550003.
101. Werrell, C. E., Femia, F., & Sternberg, T. (2015). Did we see it coming?: State fragility, climate vulnerability, and the uprisings in Syria and Egypt. SAIS review of international affairs, 35(1), 29-46.
102. White GF (ed) (1974) Natural hazards. 288 pp, London, Oxford University Press.
103. Williges, K., Mechler, R., Bowyer, P., & Balkovic, J. (2017). Towards an assessment of adaptive capacity of the European agricultural sector to droughts. Climate Services, 7, 47-63.
104. Wikramanayake, E., Or, C., Costa, F., Wen, X., Cheung, F., & Shapiro, A. (2020). A climate adaptation strategy for Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site: Steppingstone to climate proofing the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Plos one, 15(10), e0239945.
105. WMO, New climate predictions increase likelihood of temporarily reaching 1.5 °C in next 5 years. (2021, May 27). World Meteorological Organization. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/new-climate-predictions-increase-likelihood-of-temporarily-reaching-15-%C2%B0c-next-5
106. WRR, (2020). Data and Methods: World Risk Report Results 2020, https://weltrisikobericht.de/english/
107. WRR, (2020). WorldRiskReport 2020. ISBN 978-3-946785-10-1. https://weltrisikobericht.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WRR_2020_online_.pdf
108. Zhang, Q., Zhao, & X., Tang, H. (2019). Vulnerability of communities to climate change: application of the livelihood vulnerability index to an environmentally sensitive region of China. Climate and Development, 11(6), 525-542.
109. Zhang, Y., Bi, P., & Hiller, J. E. (2008). Weather and the transmission of bacillary dysentery in Jinan, northern China: a time-series analysis. Public health reports, 123(1), 61-66.