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Kuraklık Analizi ve Dirençlilik Stratejileri: Van Gölü Havzası Örneği

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 207 - 230, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.880029

Öz

Kuraklık, her zaman diğer doğal afetlerden daha yavaş ilerleyen ve geç farkedilen bir doğal afet olmuştur. Yağışların azalmasıyla başlamış ve tüm insan faaliyetlerini etkilemiştir. Artan iklim değişikliğinin etkileri ve geçmiş kuraklıklara bakılarak gelecekte kuraklık yaşanmasının kaçınılmaz olduğu kesinleşmiştir. Günümüze kadar Türkiye de dahil olmak üzere pek çok ülke kuraklığı deneyimlemiştir. Ülkemizde son yıllarda farklı bölge ve havzalarda kuraklığı belgeleyen çeşitli yayınlar ortaya çıkmıştır; ancak geniş tarım alanlarına sahip olan Van Gölü Havzası'nda kuraklık analizi ve devamındaki stratejileri sunan bir çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Van Gölü Havzası’nda geçmiş yıllarda yaşanan meteorolojik kuraklıklarının ortaya çıkarılması ve bu kuraklıklara havzanın özelliklerine bakılarak uygun dirençilik stratejilerinin belirlenmesidir. Bu amaçla, geçmiş meteorolojik kuraklıkları tespit etmek ve kuraklık değerlerini hesaplamak için bu çalışmada Standardize Yağış İndeksi (SPI) kullanılmıştır. Mekansal analizler, ArcGIS yazılımı kullanılarak Ters Mesafe Ağırlıklı (IDW) enterpolasyon yöntemiyle hazırlanarak, 2010-2019 yılları arasındaki her yıl için oluşturulan analziler değerlendirilmiştir.

Van Gölü Havzası Kuraklık Yönetim Planı’nda proje uzmanı olarak görev yapmış ilgili uzman ile online röportaj yapılmıştır. Bu röportajda havzanın mevcut durumu ve potansiyelleri tartışılmıştır. Analizler ve literatür çalışması sonrasında havzaya en uygun stratejilerin belirlenmesi için uzman görüşünden yararlanılmıştır. Stratejiler belirlenirken havza ve ekosisteme uygunluğu dikkate alınmıştır. Havzada 2012, 2013, 2016 ve 2019 yıllarında şiddetli kuraklık seviyesinde kuraklık olduğu belirlenmiştir. Havzada yaşanan kuraklıkların sebebinin sadece iklim değişikliği değil tarımda kullanılan suyun, yanlış sulama tekniklerinin, teknolojik sistemlerin havzada eksikliğinin ve halk bilincinin de etkili olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sebeplerin kuraklık üzerindeki etkilerinin azaltılması için havzaya uygulanabilir dirençlilik stratejileri belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın gerçekleştirildiği Van Gölü Havzası’nda uygulanan yöntem ve geliştirilen stratejilerle birlikte, kuraklıkla ilgil yapılan çalışmaların çerçevesinin geliştirilmesine önemli katkılar sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmanın sonuçları, kuraklık analizi bakımından teoride, stratejilerin uygulanması bakımından ise pratiğe katkı sağlama potansiyeline sahiptir. Bu katkılarla uyumlu stratejiler uygulanırsa, Van Gölü Havzası’nın kuraklığa karşı daha dirençli ve kuraklıklık risklerine karşı daha az etkilenebilir olacağı beklenmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Aydın, O., & Çiçek, I. (2013). Spatial Distribution of Precipitation In Aegean Region. Turkish J. of Geographical Sciences, 11(2), 101-120.
  • Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L., Holling, C. S., & Walker, B. (2002). Resilience And Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity İn A World Of Transformations. AMBIO: A journal of the human environment, 31(5), 437-440.
  • Franke, R., & Nielson, G. (1980). Smooth Interpolation of Large Sets Of Scattered Data. International Journal For Numerical Methods İn Engineering, 15(11), 1691-1704.
  • Giddings, L., SOTO, M., Rutherford, B. M., & Maarouf, A. (2005). Standardized Precipitation Index Zones For Mexico. Atmósfera, 18(1), 33-56.
  • Haghighi, E., Madani, K., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2018). The water footprint of water conservation using shade balls in California. Nature Sustainability, 1(7), 358-360. doi: 10.1038/s41893-018-0092-2
  • Jha, A. K., Miner, T. W., & Stanton-Geddes, Z. (Eds.). (2013). Building urban resilience: principles, tools, and practice. World Bank Publications.
  • Kadıoğlu, M. (2008). Kuraklık Kıranı Risk Yönetimi. In: Kadıoğlu, M. ve Özdamar, E., (Ed.), Afet Zararlarını Azaltmanın Temel İlkeleri, JICA Türkiye Ofisi Yayınları No: 2 277-300. Ankara.
  • McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The Relationship Of Drought Frequency And Duration To Time Scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology,17(22),179-183.
  • Megersa, G., & Abdulahi, J. (2015). Irrigation System in Israel: A review. International Journal of water resources and environmental engineering, 7(3), 29-37.
  • Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of hydrology, 391(1-2), 202-216. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
  • Oh, K. S., Leong, J. Y. C., Poh, P. E., Chong, M. N., & Von Lau, E. (2018). A review of greywater recycling related issues: Challenges and future prospects in Malaysia. Journal of Cleaner Production, 171, 17-29. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.09.267
  • Republic Of Turkey Ministry Of Agriculture And Forestry, General Directorate Of Water Management, Flood And Drought Management Department. (2018) Lake Van Basin Drought Management Plan
  • Thornton, J., & Lambert, A. (2006). Managing pressures to reduce new breaks. Water, 21(8), 24-26. Tsakiris, G., & Vangelis, H. (2004). Towards A Drought Watch System Based On Spatial SPI. Water Resources Management, 18(1), 1-12.
  • Turkish State Meteorological Service (2020). Drought and Classification. Retrieved from: https://mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/kuraklik-analizi.aspx?d=yontemsinif#sfB. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). (2020) Address Based Population Registration System. Retrieved from: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95&locale=en. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). (2020) Crop Production Statistics. Retrieved from: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92&locale=en. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Türkeş, M. (2012). A Detailed Analysis Of The Drought, Desertificatıon And The United Natıons Conventıon To Combat Desertıfıcatıon . Aegean Geographical Journal, 20 (1), 7-55.
  • Türkeş, M. (2017). Drought Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Turkey with Respect to Climatic Variability and Socio-Ecological Indicators. Aegean Geographical Journal, 26 (2), 47-70.
  • UN-HABITAT (2005). Rainwater Harvesting and Utilisation. BlueDrops Series (Book3), United Nations Habitat Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. Retrieved from: https://unhabitat.org/blue-drop-series-on-rainwater-harvesting-and-utilisation-book-3project-managers-and-implemetation-agency. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Walker, B., Holling, C. S., Carpenter, S. R., & Kinzig, A. (2004). Resilience, Adaptability And Transformability İn Social–Ecological Systems. Ecology And Society, 9(2). Retrieved from: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5/. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Wilhite, D.A. (2000). Drought As A Natural Hazard: Concepts And Definitions. In: Wilhite, D.A. (Ed.), Drought: A Global Assessment, Vol. 1. Routledge, New York, 1–18.
  • Wilhite, D.A., Glantz, M,H. (1987). Understanding the drought phenomena: the role of definitions. In: Donald, A., Wilhite, Easterling Willam, E., Deobarah, A., (Eds.), Planning of Drought: Towards a Reduction of Societal Vulnerability, Westview Press, Wood, Boulder, CO, 11–27.
  • World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (1986). Report on Drought and Countries Affected by Drought During 1974–1985, WMO, Geneva,118.
  • Zadeh, S. M., Hunt, D. V., Lombardi, D. R., & Rogers, C. D. (2013). Shared urban greywater recycling systems: water resource savings and economic investment. Sustainability, 5(7), 2887-2912.

Drought Analysis and Resilient Strategies: The Case of Lake Van Basin

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 207 - 230, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.880029

Öz

Drought progresses more slowly than other natural disasters and is noticed late. It starts with decreasing precipitation and affects all human activities. Considering the effects of increasing climate change and past droughts, it is certain that drought will be inevitable in the future. Until now, many countries have experienced drought, including Turkey. Several publications have appeared in recent years documenting drought in different regions and basins in our country; however, there is no study presenting drought analysis and subsequent strategies in Lake Van Basin, which has large agricultural areas. The aim of this study is to reveal the meteorological droughts experienced in the past years in Lake Van Basin and to determine the resilience strategies for these droughts, considering the characteristics of the basin. To that end, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed in this study to detect past meteorological droughts and calculate drought values. Spatial analyses were mapped using ArcGIS software with Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Then, the maps were evaluated for each year between 2010 and 2019.

Online interview is used with relevant expert who worked as project expert in the Lake Van Basin Drought Management Plan. In this interview, the current situation and potentials of the basin were discussed. After the analyses and literature study, expert opinion was used to determine the most appropriate strategies for the basin. Results indicated that the suitability of the strategies for the basin and ecosystem was taken into consideration. The basin experienced severe dry level drought in 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2019. It was determined that droughts in the basin was not only because of climate change, but also because of improper irrigation techniques, lack of technological systems and public awareness in the basin. In order to reduce the effects of these causes on the drought, practicable resilience strategies have been determined. Strategies determined after the method applied in the selected area in this study are believed make important contributions to the development of the framework of studies in the field of drought. For this reason, the results of the study have the potential to contribute theoretically in terms of drought analysis and practically in terms of the applicability of resilience strategies. If strategies are implemented in accordance with these contributions, it is expected that Lake Van Basin will be less vulnerable to drought risks and more resilient to drought.

Kaynakça

  • Aydın, O., & Çiçek, I. (2013). Spatial Distribution of Precipitation In Aegean Region. Turkish J. of Geographical Sciences, 11(2), 101-120.
  • Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L., Holling, C. S., & Walker, B. (2002). Resilience And Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity İn A World Of Transformations. AMBIO: A journal of the human environment, 31(5), 437-440.
  • Franke, R., & Nielson, G. (1980). Smooth Interpolation of Large Sets Of Scattered Data. International Journal For Numerical Methods İn Engineering, 15(11), 1691-1704.
  • Giddings, L., SOTO, M., Rutherford, B. M., & Maarouf, A. (2005). Standardized Precipitation Index Zones For Mexico. Atmósfera, 18(1), 33-56.
  • Haghighi, E., Madani, K., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2018). The water footprint of water conservation using shade balls in California. Nature Sustainability, 1(7), 358-360. doi: 10.1038/s41893-018-0092-2
  • Jha, A. K., Miner, T. W., & Stanton-Geddes, Z. (Eds.). (2013). Building urban resilience: principles, tools, and practice. World Bank Publications.
  • Kadıoğlu, M. (2008). Kuraklık Kıranı Risk Yönetimi. In: Kadıoğlu, M. ve Özdamar, E., (Ed.), Afet Zararlarını Azaltmanın Temel İlkeleri, JICA Türkiye Ofisi Yayınları No: 2 277-300. Ankara.
  • McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The Relationship Of Drought Frequency And Duration To Time Scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology,17(22),179-183.
  • Megersa, G., & Abdulahi, J. (2015). Irrigation System in Israel: A review. International Journal of water resources and environmental engineering, 7(3), 29-37.
  • Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of hydrology, 391(1-2), 202-216. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
  • Oh, K. S., Leong, J. Y. C., Poh, P. E., Chong, M. N., & Von Lau, E. (2018). A review of greywater recycling related issues: Challenges and future prospects in Malaysia. Journal of Cleaner Production, 171, 17-29. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.09.267
  • Republic Of Turkey Ministry Of Agriculture And Forestry, General Directorate Of Water Management, Flood And Drought Management Department. (2018) Lake Van Basin Drought Management Plan
  • Thornton, J., & Lambert, A. (2006). Managing pressures to reduce new breaks. Water, 21(8), 24-26. Tsakiris, G., & Vangelis, H. (2004). Towards A Drought Watch System Based On Spatial SPI. Water Resources Management, 18(1), 1-12.
  • Turkish State Meteorological Service (2020). Drought and Classification. Retrieved from: https://mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/kuraklik-analizi.aspx?d=yontemsinif#sfB. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). (2020) Address Based Population Registration System. Retrieved from: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95&locale=en. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). (2020) Crop Production Statistics. Retrieved from: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92&locale=en. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Türkeş, M. (2012). A Detailed Analysis Of The Drought, Desertificatıon And The United Natıons Conventıon To Combat Desertıfıcatıon . Aegean Geographical Journal, 20 (1), 7-55.
  • Türkeş, M. (2017). Drought Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Turkey with Respect to Climatic Variability and Socio-Ecological Indicators. Aegean Geographical Journal, 26 (2), 47-70.
  • UN-HABITAT (2005). Rainwater Harvesting and Utilisation. BlueDrops Series (Book3), United Nations Habitat Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. Retrieved from: https://unhabitat.org/blue-drop-series-on-rainwater-harvesting-and-utilisation-book-3project-managers-and-implemetation-agency. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Walker, B., Holling, C. S., Carpenter, S. R., & Kinzig, A. (2004). Resilience, Adaptability And Transformability İn Social–Ecological Systems. Ecology And Society, 9(2). Retrieved from: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5/. Last Access: 25.01.2020
  • Wilhite, D.A. (2000). Drought As A Natural Hazard: Concepts And Definitions. In: Wilhite, D.A. (Ed.), Drought: A Global Assessment, Vol. 1. Routledge, New York, 1–18.
  • Wilhite, D.A., Glantz, M,H. (1987). Understanding the drought phenomena: the role of definitions. In: Donald, A., Wilhite, Easterling Willam, E., Deobarah, A., (Eds.), Planning of Drought: Towards a Reduction of Societal Vulnerability, Westview Press, Wood, Boulder, CO, 11–27.
  • World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (1986). Report on Drought and Countries Affected by Drought During 1974–1985, WMO, Geneva,118.
  • Zadeh, S. M., Hunt, D. V., Lombardi, D. R., & Rogers, C. D. (2013). Shared urban greywater recycling systems: water resource savings and economic investment. Sustainability, 5(7), 2887-2912.
Toplam 24 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Yer Bilimleri ve Jeoloji Mühendisliği (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Buse Özer 0000-0001-8928-3075

Özge Yalçıner Ercoşkun

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2021
Kabul Tarihi 9 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Özer, B., & Yalçıner Ercoşkun, Ö. (2021). Drought Analysis and Resilient Strategies: The Case of Lake Van Basin. Resilience, 5(2), 207-230. https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.880029