سياسة الخليج تجاه أفغانستان: البراغماتية الحذرة بين الفرص والمخاوف

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 4, 49 - 64, 01.10.2021

Mehmet Rakipoğlu

Öz

تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تحليل سياسات ثلاث دول خليجية، هي: الإمارات وقطر والسعودية تجاه أفغانستان. وتجادل الدراسة بأن لدى كل من السعودية والإمارات تخوفات؛ أهمها التقارب بين طالبان وإيران، وموجات اللجوء المحتملة من أفغانستان. توصّلت الدراسة إلى أنّ احتمالية أن يمنح استيلاء طالبان على الحكم دفعة لحركات الإسلام السياسي تمثّل مصدر إزعاج لأبو ظبي، في حين تخشى الرياض من تهديد طالبان لأمن نظامها الداخلي، أو تحدّي مكانتها المميزة في العالم الإسلامي. أما عن قطر؛ فتجادل الدراسة بأنها اللاعب الخليجي الأكثر فعالية على الساحة الأفغانية؛ بفضل دور الوساطة الذي تؤدّيه بين الولايات المتحدة وطالبان منذ عام 2013. وعلى الرغم من اختلاف تخوفات كل لاعب، إلا أن القاسم المشترك بين اللاعبين الثلاثة هو اتباعهم سياسة براغماتية حذرة، بحيث يسعى كل لاعب إلى عدم ترك المجال فارغًا لمنافسيه، وفي الوقت نفسه لا يتسرع في إقامة علاقات قوية مع طالبان.

Anahtar Kelimeler

الخليج, أفغانستان, قطر, الإمارات, السعودية

Gulf Policies toward Afghanistan: Cautious Pragmatism between Opportunities and Fears

Öz

This study aims to analyze the policies of three Gulf states towards Afghanistan, namely the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The study argues that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have fears, the most important of which are the rapprochement between the Taliban and Iran, and possible waves of Afghan refugees. The study found that the possibility that the Taliban's takeover of power would give
a boost to political Islam movements is a source of inconvenience for Abu Dhabi, while Riyadh fears that the Taliban will threaten the security of its internal regime or challenge its privileged position in the Islamic world. As for Qatar, the study argues that it is the most effective Gulf actor in Afghanistan, thanks to the mediating role it has played between the United States and the Taliban since 2013. Despite the different fears of each player, the common denominator among the three players is that they follow a cautious pragmatic policy, so that each player is not in a hurry to establish strong relations with the Taliban.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gulf, Afghanistan, Qatar, KSA, UAE

Kaynakça

• Samuel Ramani, “A New Afghanistan: How Regional Powers are Preparing for Taliban Rule”, The New Arab, 23 August 2021.
• Giorgio Cafiero, “China and Russia’s Influence over Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate”, The New Arab, 25 August 2021.
• Kabir Taneja, “Saudi Arabia and UAE: Are They Strategically Distancing Themselves from the Afghanistan Crisis?”, Orfonline, 20 July 2021.
• Greg Bruno, “Saudi Arabia and the Future of Afghanistan”, Council Foreign Relations, 10 December 2008.
• Mehmet Rakipoğlu, “Afganistan Denkleminde Körfez’in Zor Dansı”, Fikir Turu, 25 August 2021.
• Cathrin Schaer, “Saudi Arabia and Taliban Unlikely to Revive Old Alliances”, DW, 28 August 2021.
• كان البشتون الوهابيون يشكّلون الكادر الأساسي لطالبان، ولكن هذه المجموعة انفصلت عن قيادة الحركة في المرحلة التي تلت سقوط نجيب الله. ومن هنا انتهى التقارب الأيديولوجي بين السعودية وطالبان. في الوقت نفسه عانى حكمتيار ورسول سياف العديد من المشكلات، وهذا أدى إلى تضاؤل النفوذ السعودي في أفغانستان. انظر: Bruno, “Saudi Arabia and the Future of Afghanistan”.
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• Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, “Lessons from Afghanistan for the Gulf ”, The National, 17 August 2021.
• Robert Mason, “Saudi-Russian Military Cooperation: Signaling or Strategy?”, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, 3 Eylül 2021.
• Robert Mason, “Saudi-Russian Military Cooperation: Signaling or Strategy?”, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, 3 Eylül 2021.
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• Khalid Jaber, “How will the Middle East Greet the Afghan Taliban?”, The National Interest, 31 August 2021.