رد الولايات المتحدة على الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 59 - 78, 01.04.2022

Muhammet Koçak

Öz

في أواخر فبراير 2022 تصاعدت التوترات بشأن أوكرانيا، حيث شنّت روسيا عملية عسكرية ضد دولة ذات سيادة؛ منتهكة بذلك المبادئ الأساسية للقانون الدولي. وعلى الرغم من الانسحاب الأمريكي من آسيا، إلا أن الولايات المتحدة أخذت تهديدات روسيا على محمل الجد، وحاولت حل التوترات دبلوماسيًّا، وعندما أخفقت الدبلوماسية، بدأت الولايات المتحدة في فرض عقوبات اقتصادية على روسيا، وتشجيعِ الدول الأخرى على فعل الشيء نفسه. تبحث هذه الدراسة مدى نجاح الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية في ردع روسيا من خلال العقوبات الاقتصادية، وتجادل بأن العقوبات ليست أدوات فعّالة في ردع روسيا، وقد تؤدي إلى نتائج عكسية من خلال تعزيز سلطة بوتين داخليًّا على النخبة والمجتمع الروسي.

Anahtar Kelimeler

روسيا, الولايات المتحدة, أوكرانيا, العقوبات الاقتصادية

The United States' Response to The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Öz

In late February 2022, the tensions over Ukraine escalated. With a military operation to another sovereign nation, Russia has violated basic tenets of international law. Despite its retrenchment to Asia, the US has taken Russia’s threats seriously and made an attempt to resolve the tensions at the diplomacy table. When diplomacy failed, the US began to utilize punitive measures by levying economic sanctions on Russia and encouraging other nations to do the same. This article investigates to what extent the US succeeded in deterring Russia through economic sanctions. I argue that sanctions are not effective tools in deterring Russia. Moreover, they may even be counterproductive by strengthening Putin’s domestic power over the elite and the Russian society.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Russia, USA, Ukraine, Economic Sanctions

Kaynakça

• “Birleşmiş Milletler Genel Kurulu, Rusya'nın Ukrayna'ya yönelik askeri saldırısını kınadı”, Independent, 2 Mart 2022, https://www.indyturk.com/node/479406/haber/birle%C5%9Fmi%C5%9F-milletler-genel-kurulu-rusyan%C4%B1n-ukraynaya-y%C3%B6nelik-askeri-sald%C4%B1r%C4%B1s%C4%B1n%
• Sertaç Aktan, “Rusya-Ukrayna geriliminde gündeme gelen 1994 Protokolleri’nde ne var?” Europe News, 30 Kasım 2018, https://tr.euronews.com/2018/11/30/rusya-ukrayna-geriliminde-gundeme-gelen-1994-protokolleri-nde-ne-var.
• Muhammet Koçak, Bölgesel Çatışmadan Küresel Krize: Doğu Ukrayna (Ankara: SETA Yayınları, 2015), 11.
• Muhammet Koçak, Bölgesel Çatışmadan Küresel Krize: Doğu Ukrayna (Ankara: SETA Yayınları, 2015), 11.
• “Executive Order 13660 – Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine”, The White House, 6 Mart 2014, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/06/executive-order-blocking-property-certain-persons-contributing-situation.
• “Statement by the President on Ukraine”, President Barack Obama The White House, 20 Mart 2014, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/20/statement-president-ukraine.
• “Ukraine-Related Designations”, U.S. Department of Treasury, 28 Nisan 2014, http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20140428.aspx http://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/about-bis/newsroom/ press-releases/107-about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/press-release-2014/665-commerce-dept-announces-expansion-of-exportrestrictions-on-russia.
• “Commerce Department Announces Expansion of Export Restrictions on Russia”, Bureau of Industry and Security, 28 Nisan 2014, 665-commerce-dept-announces-expansion-of-export-restrictions-on-russia.
• “Council Implementing Decision 2014/238/CFSP”, Official Journal of the European Union, 28 Nisan 2014, http://eur-lex. europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32014D 0238&from=EN.
• “Council Implementing Decision 2014/265/CFSP”, Official Journal of the European Union, 12 Mayıs 2014, http://eur-lex. europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32014D 0265&from=EN.
• “Russia Becoming More Self-Reliant Because Of Western Sanctions: Lavrov”, Radio Free Europe, 30 Haziran 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/lavrov-interview-channel-4-news-russia-becoming-more-self-reliant-because-of-western-sanctions/29328912.html.
• “Russia GDP”, Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp.
• “Readout of President Biden’s Video Call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia”, The White House, 7 Aralık 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/07/readout-of-president-bidens-video-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/
• Andrew Roth, “Russia issues list of demands it says must be met to lower tensions in Europe”, The Guardian, 17 Aralık 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato.
• Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Tom Balmforth, “Russia demands NATO roll back from East Europe and stay out of Ukraine”, Reuters, 17 Aralık 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/.
• “Ukraine-Russia crisis: Attack will have 'consequences,' EU and US warn”, DW, 24 Ocak 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-russia-crisis-attack-will-have-consequences-eu-and-us-warn/a-60532426.
• “Russia wants quick US response on Ukraine security proposals”, DW, 14 Ocak 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/russia-wants-quick-us-response-on-ukraine-security-proposals/a-60422931.
• “US, NATO send written response on Russia's security demands”, DW, 26 Ocak 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/us-nato-send-written-response-on-russias-security-demands/a-60567276.
• Lorne Cook, “Leaked document shows US willing to negotiate with Russia over missiles”, The Times of Israel, 2 Şubat 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/leaked-document-shows-us-willing-to-negotiate-with-russia-over-missiles/.
• Joseph Choi, “Russia says US response to demands offered little hope for optimism”, The Hill, 27 Ocak 2022, https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/591577-russia-says-us-response-to-demands-offered-little-cause-for.
• “Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia”, The White House, 12 Şubat 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/12/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/.
• Katie Wermus, “Kremlin Lashes Out at U.S. After America Warns Ukraine Invasion on Its Way”, Newsweek, 15 Şubat 2022, https://www.newsweek.com/kremlin-lashes-out-us-after-america-warns-ukraine-invasion-its-way-1679341.
• “Why most Ukrainians don’t believe Biden’s warnings, distrust West”, Aljazeera, 21 Şubat 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont-believe-in-war-with-russia-distrust-west.
• “Remarks by President Biden Announcing Response to Russian Actions in Ukraine”, The White House, 22 Şubat 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/22/remarks-by-president-biden-announcing-response-to-russian-actions-in-ukraine/.
• “Russia Says US Sanctions Will Meet 'Strong Response': Ministry”, Barron’s, 23 Şubat 2022, https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-says-us-sanctions-will-meet-strong-response-ministry-01645622108.
• Joe Hernandez, “More than 900 civilians have died in Ukraine. The true number is likely much higher”, NPR, 20 Mart 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/03/20/1087781833/ukraine-deaths-casualties.
• Pamela Falk, “Russia's war in Ukraine has driven 10 million people to flee from their homes”, CBS News, 21 Mart 2022, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-un-war-displaced-10-million-people-refugees-internally-displaced/.
• Andrew Roth, “How many Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine?” The Guardian, 22 Mart 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/how-many-russian-soldiers-died-ukraine-losses.
• Barbara Plett Usher, “Ukraine conflict: Why Biden won't send troops to Ukraine”, BBC News, 25 Şubat 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60499385.
• Philip Blenkinsop, “EU bars 7 Russian banks from SWIFT, but spares those in energy”, Reuters, 3 Mart 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-excludes-seven-russian-banks-swift-official-journal-2022-03-02/.
• Julia Zorthian, “Here's What the New, Tightened SWIFT Sanctions on Russian Banks Actually Do”, Time, 2 Mart 2022, https://time.com/6153951/swift-sanctions-russia/.
• Sarah Jackson, “The White House published its full list of sanctions against Russia — take a look”, Business Insider, 25 Şubat 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/see-biden-white-house-full-list-sanctions-against-russia-ukraine-2022-2.
• “U.S. Treasury Imposes Sanctions on Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov”, U.S. Department of the Treasury, 25 Şubat 2022, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0610. “Treasury Sanctions Kremlin Elites, Leaders, Oligarchs, and Family for Enabling Putin’s War Against Ukraine”, U.S. Department of the Treasury, 11 Mart 2022, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0650. “U.S. Treasury Announces Unprecedented & Expansive Sanctions Against Russia, Imposing Swift and Severe Economic Costs”, U.S. Department of the Treasury, 24 Şubat 2022, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0608.
• “US Works to 'Seize and Freeze' Wealth of Russian Oligarchs”, VOA News, 16 Mart 2022, https://www.voanews.com/a/us-works-to-seize-and-freeze-wealth-of-russian-oligarchs/6488935.html.
• “Russia sanctions list: What the west imposed over the Ukraine invasion”, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ce193-ab7d-4449-ac1b-751d49b1aaf8.
• “FACT SHEET: United States Bans Imports of Russian Oil, Liquefied Natural Gas, and Coal”, The White House, 8 Mart 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/08/fact-sheet-united-states-bans-imports-of-russian-oil-liquefied-natural-gas-and-coal/#:~:text=Today%2C%20President%20Biden%20will%20sign,his%20needless%20war%20of%20choice.
• Lauren Gambino, “US bans import of Russian vodka, seafood and diamonds”, The Guardian, 11 Mart 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/us-bans-russian-vodka-seafood-diamonds-ukraine.
• Christina Wilkie, Kevin Breuninger, “Biden calls for an end to Russia’s ‘most favored nation’ trade status”, CNBC, 11 Mart 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/11/biden-will-push-to-end-russias-most-favored-nation-trade-status.html.
• “Kremlin says the West is behaving like a bandit”, Reuters, 5 Mart 2022, https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-says-west-behaving-bandits-102119944.html.
• “Russia capable of taking measures to mitigate damage from sanctions - Kremlin”, TASS, 26 Şubat 2022, https://tass.com/politics/1411935.
• Catherine Garcia, “Putin says pro-Western Russians are 'scum and traitors' who need to be removed from society”, The Week, 17 Mart 2022, https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1011401/putin-says-pro-western-russians-are-scum-and-traitors-who-need-to-be.
• “Russia announces sanctions on Biden and several top US officials”, Aljazeera, 15 Mart 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/15/russia-announces-sanctions-on-biden-other-us-officials. Robert A. Pape, “Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work”, International Security Vol. 22, No. 2 (Fall, 1997), pp. 90-136.
• “Economic sanctions not likely to shift Russian public opinion against Putin immediately”, UK in a Changing Europe, 14 Mart 2022, https://ukandeu.ac.uk/economic-sanctions-not-likely-to-shift-russian-public-opinion-against-putin-immediately/.
• Oleg Smirnov, “How popular is Putin’s war in Russia?” Asia Times, 8 Mart 2022, https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/how-popular-is-putins-war-in-russia/.
• “U.S. Security Cooperation With Ukraine”, U.S. Department of State, 3 Mart 2022, https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/.
• Sascha Glaeser, “THE FUTILITY OF U.S. MILITARY AID AND NATO ASPIRATIONS FOR UKRAINE”, Defense Priorities, 16 Kasım 2021, https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/the-futility-of-us-military-aid-and-nato-aspirations-for-ukraine.
• Isaac Chotiner, “Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine”, The New Yorker, 1 Mart 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine.
• “UKRAINE SUPPLEMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS ACT, 2022”, https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/Ukraine%20Supplemental%20Summary.pdf.
• Joe Gould, “Biden’s Ukraine aid package is getting super-sized by Congress”, Defense News, 10 Mart 2022, https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/03/09/bidens-ukraine-aid-package-is-getting-super-sized-by-congress/.
• Katie Lobosco, “Here's what's in the $13.6 billion Ukraine aid package”, CNN Politics, 15 Mart 2022, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/ukraine-aid-spending-bill-congress/index.html.
• “Four Ways USAID is Responding to the Crisis in Ukraine”, Medium, 1 Mart 2022, https://medium.com/usaid-2030/four-ways-usaid-is-responding-to-the-crisis-in-ukraine-e4a459b6b8fc.
• “US rejects Poland’s offer to send MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine”, Aljazeera, 9 Mart 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/us-rejects-poland-offer-to-send-mig-29-fighter-jets-to-ukraine.