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COVID-19’UN ENFLASYONİST ETKİLERİ: KÜRESEL BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 372 - 398, 31.07.2025
https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.1707875

Öz

Covid-19 pandemisi, dünya genelinde ekonomik dengeleri kökten sarsarak küresel enflasyon oranlarında belirgin artışlara neden olmuştur. Bu çalışma, pandeminin neden olduğu arz ve talep yönlü şokların enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini çok boyutlu bir yaklaşımla incelemektedir. Pandemi öncesi küresel enflasyon eğilimleri tarihsel krizlerle karşılaştırılarak değerlendirilmiş; ardından pandemi sürecinde yaşanan tedarik zinciri kırılmaları, tüketici davranışlarındaki değişimler ve genişleyici ekonomi politikalarının enflasyonist etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki farklı enflasyon seyirleri karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alınmış ve merkez bankalarının faiz politikalarının etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Son olarak, geleceğe yönelik riskler ve fırsatlar bağlamında yapısal reformlar, bölgesel farklılıklar ve merkez bankası bağımsızlığının önemi tartışılmıştır. Çalışma, pandemi kaynaklı enflasyonun yalnızca geçici bir fiyat artışı olmadığını, aynı zamanda küresel ekonomi politikalarında uzun vadeli dönüşümlere yol açtığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Baldwin, R., & Tomiura, E. (2020). Thinking ahead about the trade impact of Covid-19. In R. Baldwin & B. W. di Mauro (Eds.), Economics in the time of Covid-19 (pp. 59–71). Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  • Ball, L., Leigh, D., & Mishra, P. (2022). Understanding U.S. inflation during the COVID era. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Ball-et-al-Conference-Draft-BPEA-FA22.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 17.05.2025.
  • Bank for International Settlements. (2021). Annual economic report. https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2021e.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 13.05.2025.
  • Bank for International Settlements. (2023). Annual economic report. https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2023e.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 14.05.2025.
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Watson, M. (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997(1), 91–157.
  • Blanchard, O., & Johnson, D. R. (2013). Macroeconomics (6th ed.). Pearson Education.
  • Blinder, A. S. (1979). Economic policy and the great stagflation. Academic Press.
  • Brookings Institution. (2022). Covid-19 inflation was a supply shock.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. (2023). Inflation report 2023 – III. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/publications/reports/inflation+report/2023/inflation+report+2023+-+iii, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020). The cost of the Covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending (NBER Working Paper No. 27141). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2021). Fiscal policy and households’ inflation expectations: Evidence from a randomized control trial (NBER Working Paper No. 28485). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Destatis (Federal Statistical Office of Germany). (2023). Consumer price index. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/_node.html, Erişim Tarihi: 19.05.2025.
  • European Central Bank. (2022). Inflation and consumer prices. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html, Erişim Tarihi: 16.05.2025.
  • European Central Bank. (2023). Macroeconomic projections. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html, Erişim Tarihi: 22.05.2025.
  • Evenett, S. J. (2020). Sicken thy neighbour: The initial trade policy response to COVID‐19. The World Economy, 43(4), 828–839.
  • Federal Reserve Board. (2023). FOMC projection materials, September 20, 2023. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230920.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2025.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). (2023). Consumer price index. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS, Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2025.
  • Food and Agriculture Organization. (2022). FAO food price index. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/, Erişim Tarihi: 05.05.2025.
  • Friedman, M. (1963). Inflation: Causes and consequences. Asia Publishing House.
  • Gagnon, J. (2021). The 2021–2022 inflation surges and the monetary policy response. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-2021-2022-inflation-surges-and-the-monetary-policy-response/, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228–248.
  • International Energy Agency. (2022). World energy outlook 2022. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022, Erişim Tarihi: 03.05.2025.
  • International Energy Agency. (2023). World energy outlook 2023. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023, Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2025.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2022). World economic outlook: October 2022 – Countering the cost-of-living crisis. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2023). World economic outlook: April 2023 – A rocky recovery. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2023). World economic outlook: October 2023 – Navigating global divergences. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/10/world-economic-outlook-october-2023, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2024). World economic outlook: October 2024 – Policy pivot, rising threats. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024, Erişim Tarihi: 02.05.2025.
  • Keane, M., & Neal, T. (2021). Consumer panic in the Covid-19 pandemic. Journal of Econometrics, 220(1), 86–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.045
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Macmillan.
  • Krugman, P., & Wells, R. (2018). Macroeconomics (5th ed.). Worth Publishers.
  • McKinsey Global Institute. (2022). Inflation: The $773 billion question. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/inflation, Erişim Tarihi: 11.05.2025.
  • Miroudot, S. (2020). Reshaping the policy debate on the implications of Covid-19 for global supply chains. Journal of International Business Policy, 3(4), 430–442. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-020-00074-6
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2007). Monetary policy strategy. MIT Press. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021). Inflation (CPI). https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/inflation-cpi.html, Erişim Tarihi: 13.05.2025.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2023). Consumer prices, updated: 7 February 2024. https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2024/02/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-7-february-2024.html, Erişim Tarihi: 14.05.2025.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2024). Consumer prices, updated: 4 December 2024. https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2024/12/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-4-december-2024.html, Erişim Tarihi: 14.05.2025.
  • Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press.
  • Samuelson, P. A., & Solow, R. M. (1960). Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy. American Economic Review, 50(2), 177–194.
  • Sim, J., et al. (2020). Decomposing supply and demand driven inflation (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2022-10). https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/working-papers/2022/10/decomposing-supply-and-demand-driven-inflation, Erişim Tarihi: 19.05.2025.
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2023). Monthly treasury statement. https://home.treasury.gov/data/treasury-statistics/monthly-treasury-statement
  • World Bank. (2023). Inflation, consumer prices (annual %). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • World Bank. (2023). What explains global inflation. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-inflation, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • World Trade Organization. (2020). Trade set to plunge as Covid-19 pandemic upends global economy. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 13.05.2025.

The Inflationary Impact of COVID-19: A Global Perspective

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 372 - 398, 31.07.2025
https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.1707875

Öz

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely disrupted global economic balances, leading to significant increases in inflation rates worldwide. This study examines the inflationary effects of supply and demand shocks caused by the pandemic through a multidimensional lens. Global inflation trends prior to the pandemic are assessed in comparison with historical crises; then, the inflationary consequences of supply chain disruptions, shifts in consumer behavior, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are analyzed. Moreover, the divergence in inflation trends between advanced and developing economies is evaluated alongside the impact of central banks’ interest rate policies. Lastly, the study discusses future risks and opportunities in the context of structural reforms, regional disparities, and the importance of central bank independence. The findings suggest that pandemic-induced inflation is not merely a temporary price surge, but a catalyst for long-term changes in global economic governance.

Kaynakça

  • Baldwin, R., & Tomiura, E. (2020). Thinking ahead about the trade impact of Covid-19. In R. Baldwin & B. W. di Mauro (Eds.), Economics in the time of Covid-19 (pp. 59–71). Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  • Ball, L., Leigh, D., & Mishra, P. (2022). Understanding U.S. inflation during the COVID era. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Ball-et-al-Conference-Draft-BPEA-FA22.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 17.05.2025.
  • Bank for International Settlements. (2021). Annual economic report. https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2021e.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 13.05.2025.
  • Bank for International Settlements. (2023). Annual economic report. https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2023e.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 14.05.2025.
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Watson, M. (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997(1), 91–157.
  • Blanchard, O., & Johnson, D. R. (2013). Macroeconomics (6th ed.). Pearson Education.
  • Blinder, A. S. (1979). Economic policy and the great stagflation. Academic Press.
  • Brookings Institution. (2022). Covid-19 inflation was a supply shock.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. (2023). Inflation report 2023 – III. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/publications/reports/inflation+report/2023/inflation+report+2023+-+iii, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020). The cost of the Covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending (NBER Working Paper No. 27141). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2021). Fiscal policy and households’ inflation expectations: Evidence from a randomized control trial (NBER Working Paper No. 28485). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Destatis (Federal Statistical Office of Germany). (2023). Consumer price index. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/_node.html, Erişim Tarihi: 19.05.2025.
  • European Central Bank. (2022). Inflation and consumer prices. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html, Erişim Tarihi: 16.05.2025.
  • European Central Bank. (2023). Macroeconomic projections. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html, Erişim Tarihi: 22.05.2025.
  • Evenett, S. J. (2020). Sicken thy neighbour: The initial trade policy response to COVID‐19. The World Economy, 43(4), 828–839.
  • Federal Reserve Board. (2023). FOMC projection materials, September 20, 2023. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230920.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2025.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). (2023). Consumer price index. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS, Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2025.
  • Food and Agriculture Organization. (2022). FAO food price index. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/, Erişim Tarihi: 05.05.2025.
  • Friedman, M. (1963). Inflation: Causes and consequences. Asia Publishing House.
  • Gagnon, J. (2021). The 2021–2022 inflation surges and the monetary policy response. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-2021-2022-inflation-surges-and-the-monetary-policy-response/, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228–248.
  • International Energy Agency. (2022). World energy outlook 2022. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022, Erişim Tarihi: 03.05.2025.
  • International Energy Agency. (2023). World energy outlook 2023. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023, Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2025.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2022). World economic outlook: October 2022 – Countering the cost-of-living crisis. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2023). World economic outlook: April 2023 – A rocky recovery. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2023). World economic outlook: October 2023 – Navigating global divergences. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/10/world-economic-outlook-october-2023, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2024). World economic outlook: October 2024 – Policy pivot, rising threats. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024, Erişim Tarihi: 02.05.2025.
  • Keane, M., & Neal, T. (2021). Consumer panic in the Covid-19 pandemic. Journal of Econometrics, 220(1), 86–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.045
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Macmillan.
  • Krugman, P., & Wells, R. (2018). Macroeconomics (5th ed.). Worth Publishers.
  • McKinsey Global Institute. (2022). Inflation: The $773 billion question. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/inflation, Erişim Tarihi: 11.05.2025.
  • Miroudot, S. (2020). Reshaping the policy debate on the implications of Covid-19 for global supply chains. Journal of International Business Policy, 3(4), 430–442. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-020-00074-6
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2007). Monetary policy strategy. MIT Press. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021). Inflation (CPI). https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/inflation-cpi.html, Erişim Tarihi: 13.05.2025.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2023). Consumer prices, updated: 7 February 2024. https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2024/02/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-7-february-2024.html, Erişim Tarihi: 14.05.2025.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2024). Consumer prices, updated: 4 December 2024. https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2024/12/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-4-december-2024.html, Erişim Tarihi: 14.05.2025.
  • Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press.
  • Samuelson, P. A., & Solow, R. M. (1960). Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy. American Economic Review, 50(2), 177–194.
  • Sim, J., et al. (2020). Decomposing supply and demand driven inflation (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2022-10). https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/working-papers/2022/10/decomposing-supply-and-demand-driven-inflation, Erişim Tarihi: 19.05.2025.
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2023). Monthly treasury statement. https://home.treasury.gov/data/treasury-statistics/monthly-treasury-statement
  • World Bank. (2023). Inflation, consumer prices (annual %). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • World Bank. (2023). What explains global inflation. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-inflation, Erişim Tarihi: 18.05.2025.
  • World Trade Organization. (2020). Trade set to plunge as Covid-19 pandemic upends global economy. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 13.05.2025.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Makroekonomik Teori
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Çağla İzgi 0000-0001-7291-1602

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 28 Mayıs 2025
Kabul Tarihi 28 Haziran 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA İzgi, Ç. (2025). COVID-19’UN ENFLASYONİST ETKİLERİ: KÜRESEL BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal, 8(3), 372-398. https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.1707875
R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal 

https://dergipark.org.tr/rs