Araştırma Makalesi
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The Relationship Between Inflation and Welfare

Yıl 2024, , 86 - 104, 29.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.34086/rteusbe.1490040

Öz

The fact that prices of goods and services do not fluctuate for a long period of time shapes the welfare level of countries through direct and indirect effects on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is of great importance in terms of preventing the distribution of income, which is one of the main economic policy objectives. In many countries with high levels of welfare, the common feature that stands out is that the general level of prices does not fluctuate significantly. The same is actually true for many developing countries. The importance of this issue for Türkiye, which is in the same country classification, has been the main motivation for this study. In this study, the relationship between the change in the general level of prices and the level of welfare has been tried to be revealed by using quarterly data between 1987-2017. Since there is no single variable that can be taken as the basic measure of welfare level in many national and international sources, we first obtain a welfare index from a utility function we use. Then, before establishing the relationship between this index and inflation rates, which are the main indicator of the general level of prices, the stationarity of the series is determined by Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips Perron unit root tests. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test, it is found that there is a long-run relationship between inflation and welfare. Moreover, the Granger causality test showed that there is a causality between these two variables from inflation to welfare. Finally, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is estimated, and Impulse-Response and Variance Decomposition analysis are performed. The study shows that price changes in Türkiye reduce the rate of welfare growth, but do not prevent welfare growth as a whole.

Kaynakça

  • Aiyagari, S., Rao Braun, R. & Anton Eckstein, Z. (1998). Transaction Services, Inflation, and Welfare. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1274-1301. https://doi.org/10.1086/250047.
  • Bailey, M. J. (1956). The welfare cost of inflationary finance. Journal of political Economy, 64(2), 93-110.
  • Chen, Yongwei Li, Tao Shi, Yupeng & Zhou, Yilun (2014). Welfare Costs of Inflation: Evidence from China. Social Indicators Research, 119(3), The First Six Articles Belong to the Special Issue: Consumer Finance and Social Indicators in China, pp. 1195-1218. DOI:10.1007/s11205-013-0553-y.
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, S. Kon. (1995). Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 277-280. https://doi.org/10.2307/1392187.
  • Chiu, J. & Molico, M. (2011). Uncertainty, Inflation, and Welfare. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(2), 487-512. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00448.x.
  • Chu C., Angus & Lai, Ching-Chong (2013). Money and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in an R&D Growth Model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(1), 233-249.
  • Craig, B., & Rocheteau, G. (2008). Inflation and welfare: A search approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(1), 89-119.
  • Cysne, P. R. (2003). Divisia Index, Inflation, and Welfare. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(2), 221-238.
  • Dickey, A. D. & Fuller, A. W. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348.
  • Enders, W. (2010). Applied Econometric Time Series. (3^thed.). New York: Wiley.
  • Engle, F. R. & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236.
  • Fernández, V. C. (1999). Inflation and welfare: an application to Chile. Cuadernos de economía, 519-544.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791.
  • Head, A. & Kumar, A. (2005). Dispersion, Inflation and Welfare. International Economic Review, 46(2), 533-572.
  • Hicks, J. R. (1941). The rehabilitation of consumers' surplus. The Review of Economic Studies, 8(2), 108-116.
  • Isigicok, E. (1994). Zaman Serilerinde Nedensellik Çözümlemesi. Bursa: Uludağ Üniversitesi Yayını.
  • Janiak, A. & Monteiro, S. P. (2011). Inflation and Welfare in Long-Run Equilibrium with Firm Dynamics. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(5), 795-834.
  • Jovanovic, B. (1982). Inflation and Welfare in the Steady State. Journal of Political Economy, 90(3), 561-577.
  • Kimbrough, K. P. (1986). Inflation, employment, and welfare in the presence of transactions costs. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(2), 127-140.
  • Krugman, P. R., Persson, T., & Svensson, L. E. (1985). Inflation, interest rates, and welfare. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(3), 677-695.
  • Love, R. F. David & Wen, J.-F. (1999). Inflation, Welfare, and the Time-Costs of Transacting. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d’Economique, 32(1), 171-194.
  • Lucas, E. R. (2000). Inflation and Welfare. Econometrica, 68(2), 247-274.
  • Mushtag, S., Rashid, A. & Qayyum, A. (2012). On the Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Case of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 51(1), 61-96.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1995). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. 9514. Faculty of Economics. University of Cambridge.
  • Phelps, E. S. (1965). Anticipated inflation and economic welfare. Journal of Political Economy, 73(1), 1-17.
  • Phillips, C.B. Peter & Perron, Pierre (1988). Testing for Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Pigou, A.C. (1962). The Economics of Welfare (4^th ed.). Macmillian. Londra.
  • Sevuktekin, Mustafa & Cinar, Mehmet (2014). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi Eviews Uygulamalı (4^th extended ed.). Bursa: Dora Yayınları.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society. 48(1), 1-48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017.
  • Tari, R. (2011). Ekonometri. Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Tümtürk, O. (2017). Enflasyon’un Türkiye için Refah Maliyeti. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 115-122.
  • Waud, R. N. (1970). Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Welfare. The American Economic Review, 60(4), 631-641.

Enflasyon ve Refah İlişkisi

Yıl 2024, , 86 - 104, 29.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.34086/rteusbe.1490040

Öz

Mal ve hizmet fiyatlarının uzun süreli olarak dalgalanma göstermemesi bir yandan ülkelerin refah düzeyini doğrudan ve dolaylı etkilerle şekillendirmekte ve diğer yandan da temel iktisat politikası amaçlarından biri olan gelir dağılımının bozulmaması açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Refah düzeyinin yüksek olduğu birçok ülkede göze çarpan ortak özellik fiyatlar genel seviyesinin ciddi bir dalgalanma göstermemesidir. Aynı durum aslında birçok gelişmekte olan ülke içinde geçerlidir. Bu ülkelerden aynı ülke sınıflandırmasında yer alan Türkiye için de konunun önemi bu çalışmanın ortaya çıkmasında temel motivasyon unsuru olmuştur. Çalışmada 1987-2017 yılları arasındaki çeyrek veriler kullanılarak fiyatlar genel seviyesindeki değişimle refah düzeyi arasındaki ilişki ortaya konmaya çalışılmıştır. Refah düzeyinin birçok ulusal ve uluslararası kaynakta temel ölçütü olarak alınabilecek tek bir değişken bulunmadığından öncelikle kullandığımız bir fayda fonksiyonundan refah endeksi elde edilmiştir. Daha sonra bu endeksle fiyatlar genel seviyesinin temel göstergesi olan enflasyon oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koymadan önce serilerin durağan olup olmadıkları Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller ve Phillips Perron birim kök testleri ile belirlenmiştir. Otoregresif Gecikmeli Modelinin kullanıldığı (ARDL) eş bütünleşme testi ile enflasyon ve refah arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca Granger nedensellik testi bu iki değişken arasında enflasyondan refaha doğru bir nedensellik olduğunu göstermiştir. Son olarak, Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) modeli tahmin edilerek Etki-Tepki ve Varyans ayrıştırma analizi yapılmıştır. Çalışma göstermiştir ki Türkiye’de fiyatların değişmesi refah artış hızını düşürmekte, ancak refahın artmasını bir bütün olarak engellememektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Aiyagari, S., Rao Braun, R. & Anton Eckstein, Z. (1998). Transaction Services, Inflation, and Welfare. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1274-1301. https://doi.org/10.1086/250047.
  • Bailey, M. J. (1956). The welfare cost of inflationary finance. Journal of political Economy, 64(2), 93-110.
  • Chen, Yongwei Li, Tao Shi, Yupeng & Zhou, Yilun (2014). Welfare Costs of Inflation: Evidence from China. Social Indicators Research, 119(3), The First Six Articles Belong to the Special Issue: Consumer Finance and Social Indicators in China, pp. 1195-1218. DOI:10.1007/s11205-013-0553-y.
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, S. Kon. (1995). Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 277-280. https://doi.org/10.2307/1392187.
  • Chiu, J. & Molico, M. (2011). Uncertainty, Inflation, and Welfare. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(2), 487-512. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00448.x.
  • Chu C., Angus & Lai, Ching-Chong (2013). Money and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in an R&D Growth Model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(1), 233-249.
  • Craig, B., & Rocheteau, G. (2008). Inflation and welfare: A search approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(1), 89-119.
  • Cysne, P. R. (2003). Divisia Index, Inflation, and Welfare. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(2), 221-238.
  • Dickey, A. D. & Fuller, A. W. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348.
  • Enders, W. (2010). Applied Econometric Time Series. (3^thed.). New York: Wiley.
  • Engle, F. R. & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236.
  • Fernández, V. C. (1999). Inflation and welfare: an application to Chile. Cuadernos de economía, 519-544.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791.
  • Head, A. & Kumar, A. (2005). Dispersion, Inflation and Welfare. International Economic Review, 46(2), 533-572.
  • Hicks, J. R. (1941). The rehabilitation of consumers' surplus. The Review of Economic Studies, 8(2), 108-116.
  • Isigicok, E. (1994). Zaman Serilerinde Nedensellik Çözümlemesi. Bursa: Uludağ Üniversitesi Yayını.
  • Janiak, A. & Monteiro, S. P. (2011). Inflation and Welfare in Long-Run Equilibrium with Firm Dynamics. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(5), 795-834.
  • Jovanovic, B. (1982). Inflation and Welfare in the Steady State. Journal of Political Economy, 90(3), 561-577.
  • Kimbrough, K. P. (1986). Inflation, employment, and welfare in the presence of transactions costs. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(2), 127-140.
  • Krugman, P. R., Persson, T., & Svensson, L. E. (1985). Inflation, interest rates, and welfare. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(3), 677-695.
  • Love, R. F. David & Wen, J.-F. (1999). Inflation, Welfare, and the Time-Costs of Transacting. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d’Economique, 32(1), 171-194.
  • Lucas, E. R. (2000). Inflation and Welfare. Econometrica, 68(2), 247-274.
  • Mushtag, S., Rashid, A. & Qayyum, A. (2012). On the Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Case of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 51(1), 61-96.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1995). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. 9514. Faculty of Economics. University of Cambridge.
  • Phelps, E. S. (1965). Anticipated inflation and economic welfare. Journal of Political Economy, 73(1), 1-17.
  • Phillips, C.B. Peter & Perron, Pierre (1988). Testing for Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Pigou, A.C. (1962). The Economics of Welfare (4^th ed.). Macmillian. Londra.
  • Sevuktekin, Mustafa & Cinar, Mehmet (2014). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi Eviews Uygulamalı (4^th extended ed.). Bursa: Dora Yayınları.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society. 48(1), 1-48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017.
  • Tari, R. (2011). Ekonometri. Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Tümtürk, O. (2017). Enflasyon’un Türkiye için Refah Maliyeti. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 115-122.
  • Waud, R. N. (1970). Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Welfare. The American Economic Review, 60(4), 631-641.
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Zaman Serileri Analizi, Enflasyon
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Vildan Yavuz Akinci 0000-0003-3232-8265

Murat Dündar Demiröz 0000-0003-1783-9905

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Haziran 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 25 Mayıs 2024
Kabul Tarihi 24 Haziran 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024

Kaynak Göster

ISNAD Yavuz Akinci, Vildan - Demiröz, Murat Dündar. “The Relationship Between Inflation and Welfare”. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 11/1 (Haziran 2024), 86-104. https://doi.org/10.34086/rteusbe.1490040.

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