The Relationship Between Real House Prices and Economic Policies Uncertainty: A Case of South Korea

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 11, 114 - 144, 29.06.2020

Mümin Atalay Çetin , İlker Yaman , İbrahim Bakırtaş

https://doi.org/10.34086/rteusbe.732041

Öz

Especially with the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the effects of the housing market on macroeconomic stability have been more clearly understood by researchers and policy makers, both nationally and globally. In this context, it was observed that various types of uncertainty, especially uncertainties in economic policies, affect the housing market. The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between real house prices and uncertainty of economic policies between 2001-2008 in South Korea by using VAR analysis. According to the empirical findings, uncertainties in economic policies in South Korea is effective in explaining real house prices changes. In addition, the results revelaed a bidirectional causality relationship between real house prices and economic policy uncertainty.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Policies Uncertainty, Real House Prices, South Korea, VAR Analysis, Granger Causality

REEL KONUT FİYATLARI İLE EKONOMİ POLİTİKALARI BELİRSİZLİĞİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: GÜNEY KORE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Özellikle 2008 yılında yaşanan Küresel Finansal Kriz ile birlikte hem ulusal hem de küresel ölçekte konut piyasasının makroekonomik istikrar üzerindeki etkileri araştırmacılar ve politika yapıcılar tarafından daha net bir biçimde kavranmıştır. Bu bağlamda ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizlikler başta olmak üzere farklı belirsizlik türlerinin konut piyasasını etkilediği görülmüştür. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Güney Kore’de 2001-2018 yılları arasında reel konut fiyatları ile ekonomi politikaları belirsizliği arasındaki ilişkiyi VAR analizi yardımıyla ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları Güney Kore’de ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin reel konut fiyatlar değişimlerini açıklamada etkin olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca reel konut fiyatları ile ekonomi politikası belirsizliği arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomi Politikaları Belirsizliği, Reel Konut Fiyatları, Güney Kore, VAR Analizi, Granger Nedensellik

Kaynakça

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