СЛОЖНОСТЬ РОЛЕЙ: ПОЛИТИКА ИЗРАИЛЯ В ОТНОШЕНИИ КОНФЛИКТА МЕЖДУ РОССИЕЙ И УКРАИНОЙ

Öz

Российско-украинский конфликт значительно изменил глобальные геополитические динамики, вынуждая средние и малые державы балансировать между давлением мировых сверхдержав. В данном исследовании анализируется внешняя политика Израиля в контексте российско-украинского конфликта, начавшегося в 2022 году и продолжающегося по сей день, через призму Теории ролей с особым акцентом на Национальные ролевые концепции (НРК). Исследование выделяет три ключевые НРК — Поставщик гуманитарной помощи, Посредник и Стратегический союзник, которые являются центральными для понимания осторожного и многогранного подхода Израиля к этому конфликту. Эти роли отражают усилия Израиля по балансированию между историческими союзами с Западом и стратегическими договоренностями с Россией, особенно в контексте региональной безопасности на Ближнем Востоке. Исследование опирается на качественный контент-анализ официальных заявлений акторов, включая премьер-министров и высокопоставленных оборонных чиновников, с целью выявить, как НРК влияют на принятие внешнеполитических решений в условиях противоречивых внешних ожиданий и внутренних политических динамик. Роль поставщика гуманитарной помощи подчеркивает приверженность Израиля своим моральным обязательствам и исторической идентичности, что находит отражение в предоставлении гуманитарной помощи Украине. Роль посредника демонстрирует попытки Израиля использовать свои уникальные отношения как с Россией, так и с Украиной для содействия диалогу и снижения напряженности, хотя эти усилия имели ограниченный успех. В то же время роль стратегического союзника подчеркивает стремление Израиля поддерживать свои обязательства перед западными партнерами, особенно перед Соединенными Штатами, одновременно осторожно управляя своей зависимостью от России в сфере безопасности в Сирии. Это исследование восполняет пробел в существующей литературе, применяя Теорию ролей к внешней политике Израиля в контексте российско-украинского конфликта. Оно предоставляет ценные аналитические инструменты для понимания того, как средние державы, подобные Израилю, маневрируют в условиях сложных международных кризисов, уравновешивая противоречивые ожидания и обеспечивая стратегическую гибкость. Результаты исследования способствуют как теоретическому развитию применения НРК в анализе внешней политики, так и практическим рекомендациям для политиков, сталкивающихся с аналогичными геополитическими вызовами. В конечном итоге, это исследование углубляет наше понимание поведения средних держав в условиях растущей многополярности и неопределенности международного порядка.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Россия
• Израиль
• Российско-украинская война
• теория ролей
• ролевые концепции
• внешняя политика

COMPLEXITY OF ROLES: ISRAEL’S POLICYMAKING TOWARDS THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Öz

The Russia-Ukraine War has significantly reshaped global geopolitical dynamics, compelling middle and small powers to navigate the competing pressures of global superpowers. This study examines Israel’s foreign policy towards the Russia-Ukraine War, which began in 2022 and continues to this day, through the lens of Role Theory, with a particular focus on National Role Conceptions (NRCs). The research identifies three key NRCs—Humanitarian Aid Provider, Mediator, and Strategic Ally—as central to understanding Israel’s nuanced and cautious approach to the conflict. These roles reflect Israel’s efforts to balance historical alliances with the West and its strategic arrangements with Russia, particularly in the context of regional security dynamics in the Middle East. The study employs qualitative content analysis of official statements made by key actors, including prime ministers and defense officials, to uncover how NRCs guide foreign policy decisions amidst conflicting external pressures and internal political dynamics. The Humanitarian Aid Provider role highlights Israel’s commitment to its moral obligations and historical identity, evident in its provision of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. The Mediator role demonstrates Israel’s attempt to leverage its unique relationships with both Russia and Ukraine to facilitate dialogue and reduce tensions, albeit with limited success. Meanwhile, the Strategic Ally role underscores Israel’s efforts to maintain its commitments to Western partners, particularly the United States, while carefully managing its security dependencies on Russia in Syria. This study addresses a gap in the existing literature by applying Role Theory to Israel’s foreign policy in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It provides valuable insights into how middle powers, like Israel, navigate complex international crises by balancing competing expectations and pursuing strategic flexibility. The findings contribute both theoretically, by advancing the application of NRCs in foreign policy analysis, and practically, by offering recommendations for policymakers facing similar geopolitical challenges. Ultimately, this research enhances our understanding of middle power behavior in an increasingly multipolar and uncertain international order.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Russia
• Israel
• Russia-Ukraine War
• role theory
• role conceptions
• foreign policy

ROLLERİN KARMAŞIKLIĞI: İSRAİL’İN RUSYA-UKRAYNA SAVAŞI’NA YÖNELİK POLİTİKA YAPIMI

Öz

Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı, küresel jeopolitik dinamikleri önemli ölçüde yeniden şekillendirerek orta ve küçük güçleri küresel süper güçlerin baskıları arasında hassas bir denge kurmaya zorlamıştır. Bu çalışma, 2022’de başlayan ve hâlâ devam eden Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı sırasında İsrail’in dış politikasını Rol Teorisi çerçevesinde incelemekte ve özellikle Ulusal Rol Kavramları’na (URK) odaklanmaktadır. Araştırma, İsrail’in bu ihtilaftaki temkinli ve incelikli yaklaşımını anlamada üç temel URK’yi öne çıkarmaktadır: İnsani Yardım Sağlayıcı, Arabulucu ve Stratejik Müttefik. Bu roller, İsrail’in Batı ile olan tarihi ittifaklarını ve Orta Doğu’daki güvenlik dinamikleri bağlamında Rusya ile kurduğu stratejik düzenlemelerini dengeleme çabalarını yansıtmaktadır. Çalışma, başbakanlar ve savunma yetkilileri gibi kilit aktörlerin yaptığı resmî açıklamaların nitel içerik analizini kullanarak, URK’ların dış politika kararlarını iç ve dış baskılar arasındaki çatışmalar ışığında nasıl şekillendirdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. İnsani Yardım Sağlayıcı rolü, İsrail’in ahlaki yükümlülüklerine ve tarihsel kimliğine olan bağlılığını vurgulamakta ve Ukrayna’ya sağlanan insani yardımlarda somutlaşmaktadır. Arabulucu rolü, İsrail’in Rusya ve Ukrayna ile olan benzersiz ilişkilerini kullanarak diyalog kurma ve gerilimi azaltma çabalarını göstermekte, ancak bu çabalar sınırlı başarı sağlamaktadır. Öte yandan, Stratejik Müttefik rolü, İsrail’in özellikle Amerika Birleşik Devletleri gibi Batılı ortaklarına olan taahhütlerini sürdürme çabalarını yansıtırken, aynı zamanda Suriye’deki güvenlik bağımlılıkları nedeniyle Rusya ile ilişkilerini dikkatli bir şekilde yönetmesini gerektirmektedir. Bu çalışma, Rol Teorisi’ni Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı bağlamında İsrail dış politikasına uygulayarak literatürdeki bir boşluğu doldurmaktadır. Araştırma, orta güçlerin İsrail örneğinde olduğu gibi karmaşık uluslararası krizlerde çelişen beklentileri nasıl dengelediklerine ve stratejik esnekliği nasıl sürdürdüklerine dair değerli içgörüler sunmaktadır. Bulgular, hem teorik olarak URK’lerin dış politika analizine uygulanmasını ilerleterek hem de pratik olarak benzer jeopolitik zorluklarla karşılaşan politika yapıcılara öneriler sunarak katkıda bulunmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, bu araştırma artan çok kutuplu ve belirsiz uluslararası düzende orta güçlerin davranışlarını anlamamıza önemli bir katkı sağlamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rusya
• İsrail
• Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı
• rol teorisi
• rol kavramları
• dış politika

Kaynakça

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