ВЛИЯНИЕ САНКЦИЙ, ВВЕДЕННЫХ В ОТНОШЕНИИ РОССИИ, НА ТУРЕЦКИЙ НЕФТЯНОЙ РЫНОК

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 9, 127 - 155, 30.06.2023

Sinem Okumuş

https://doi.org/10.48068/rusad.1271500

Öz

После присоединения (“аннексии”) Крыма к Российской Федерацией (России) государства-члены ЕС США и их союзники ввели множество антироссийских санкций. Санкционная политика значительно усилилась с началом специальной военной операции России на Украине (“российско-украинской войны”) 24 февраля 2022 года. Если первые санкции, введенные против России, не сильно повлияли на мировой рынок нефти, то дополнительные — глубоко всколыхнули рынок и нарушили баланс спроса и предложения нефти. Торговое эмбарго и введение потолка цен на российскую сырую нефть и нефтепродукты изменили маршруты их поставок. Россия, которая имела значительную долю рынка в странах-импортерах нефти, в первую очередь в государствах-членах ЕС, была заменена другими странами-экспортерами нефти, такими как США. Российская сырая нефть, которая продавалась на уровне, близком к довоенным ценам Brent и West Texas Intermediate (WTI), после эмбарго начала продаваться по сниженным ценам. Объемы российской нефти, не востребованные членами ЕС, были закуплены Китаем и Индией.
Считается, что Турция (растущий спрос которой на нефть и нефтепродукты удовлетворяется частично за счет импорта из России) как положительно, так и отрицательно повлияла на состояние послевоенного мирового нефтяного рынка. Турция не присоединилась к санкциям, введенным в отношении России странами-членами ЕС, США и их союзниками. Страна увеличила импорт российской нефти и нефтепродуктов со скидкой. За нефтяной сделкой между Турцией и Россией пристально следят государства-члены ЕС, США и их союзники.
В этом контексте в первой части данной статьи будут проанализированы санкционные пакеты, которые были введены в действие после 24 февраля 2022 года государствами-членами ЕС, США, Японией и их союзниками. Во второй части будет рассмотрена динамика турецкого нефтяного рынка (деятельность по добыче, импорту, переработке, потреблению и экспорту сырой нефти) в свете деятельности по разведке, добыче и переработке нефти, которая набирает обороты с 1950-х годов. Наконец, будет предпринята попытка доказать гипотезу о том, что неучастие в санкциях, введенных в отношении России, положительно повлияют на Турцию.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Экономические санкции, Торговля нефтью, Специальная военная операция на Украине, Ограничение цен, Турецкий рынок нефти

IMPACT OF RUSSIAN SANCTIONS ON TURKISH PETROLEUM MARKET

Öz

With the annexation of Crimea by Russian Federation (Russia), EU member states, the USA and their allies have implemented many sanctions against Russia. Extensive sanctions have been added to them with the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022. Although the sanctions imposed on Russia did not affect the global petroleum market, additional sanctions have profoundly stirred the market and disrupted the balance of oil supply and demand. The trade embargo and the implementation of price cap on Russian crude oil and petroleum products have altered the route of Russian crude oil and petroleum products. While the hegemony of Russia, which has a significant market share in oil-importing countries, primarily EU member states, has been diminishing, it has been witnessed that Russia has been replaced by the other oil-exporting countries such as the USA. Russian crude oil, which was transacted at level close to the pre-war Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)’s prices, began to be sold at discounted rates after the embargoes. The EU member states that imported high volume of Russian oil have ended their oil trade with Russia after the embargoes. This Russian oil, which was not bought by the EU members, has been purchased by China and India at discounted prices.
It is thought that the changes in the global oil market after the Russia-Ukraine war would lead to either positive or negative consequences for Türkiye, which imports Russian oil to partially meet its continuously increasing oil demand. Türkiye, not a sanction-imposing country on Russia, has increased in discounted oil imports from Russia. This oil transaction between Türkiye and Russia has been hounded closely by the EU member states, the USA and their allies.
Within this context, in the first part of this article, the sanction packages that have been put into action after February 24, 2022 by the EU member states, the USA, Japan and their allies will be analyzed. In the second part, the pillars of Turkish petroleum market (crude oil and oil products trade, their production, refining of crude oil and their consumption) will be summarized in the light of post-1950 exploration, production and refining activities. Finally, the hypothesis that Türkiye will be affected positively from these sanctions will be tried to be proven.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Russia, Turkish petroleum market, Russia-Ukraine war, economic sanctions, oil trade, price cap.

RUSYA’YA UYGULANAN YAPTIRIMLARIN TÜRK PETROL PİYASASINA ETKİSİ

Öz

2014 yılında Kırım’ın Rusya Federasyonu (Rusya) tarafından ilhak edilmesiyle birlikte AB üyesi ülkeler, ABD ve müttefikleri Rusya’ya birçok alanda yaptırım uygulamaya başlamıştır. 24 Şubat 2022’de Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı’nın başlaması ile bu yaptırımlara yenileri eklenmiştir. Savaş öncesinde uygulanan yaptırımlar küresel enerji piyasalarını çok fazla etkilemezken; yeni yaptırımlar, küresel enerji piyasalarını derinden etkileyerek petrol arzındaki hassas dengenin bozulmasına neden olmuştur. Petrol ve petrol ürünlerine getirilen ticaret yasakları ve tavan fiyat uygulaması, Rusya menşeli petrol ve petrol ürünlerinin ticaret yollarının değişmesine neden olmuştur. Başta AB üyesi ülkeler olmak üzere petrol ithal eden ülkelerde önemli bir pazar payına sahip olan Rusya’nın hâkimiyetinin azaldığı ve Rusya’nın yerini ABD gibi farklı piyasa oyuncularının aldığı gözlenmiştir. Savaş öncesinde Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gibi petrol türlerinin fiyatlarına çok yakın seviyelerde satılan Rus petrolü, ambargoların ardından indirimli olarak satılmaya başlamıştır. Yüksek hacimlerde Rus petrolü ithal eden AB üyesi ülkeler, ambargolar sonrasında Rusya’dan petrol alımlarını durdurmuş, açığa çıkan Rus petrolü Çin ve Hindistan tarafından indirimli olarak alınmaya başlanmıştır.
Petrol ve petrol ürünlerine olan talebi sürekli artan ve bu talebin bir kısmını Rusya’dan petrol ithalatıyla karşılayan Türkiye’nin savaş sonrası küresel petrol piyasasındaki bu gelişmelerden hem olumlu hem de olumsuz olarak etkilendiği düşünülmektedir. AB üyesi ülkeler, ABD ve müttefikleri tarafından Rusya’ya uygulanan yaptırımlara taraf olmayan Türkiye, savaşın başlamasıyla birlikte daha az ödeme yaparak Rus petrol ve petrol ürünleri ithalatını arttırmıştır. Bu durum, AB üyesi ülkeler, ABD ve müttefiklerinin dikkatinden kaçmamakta ve yakından takip edilmektedir.
Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmanın ilk bölümünde 24 Şubat 2022 tarihinden sonra AB üyesi ülkeler, ABD, Japonya ve bu ülkelerin müttefikleri tarafından enerji sektörüne yönelik uygulanan yaptırım paketleri incelenecektir. İkinci bölümünde, 1950’li yıllar itibarıyla ivme kazanan petrol arama, üretim ve işleme faaliyetleri ışığında Türk petrol piyasası dinamikleri (ham petrol üretim, ithalat, işlenme, tüketim ve ihracat faaliyetleri) ele alınacaktır. Son bölümde ise Rusya’ya uygulanan yaptırımlara taraf olmayan Türkiye’nin bu yaptırımlardan olumlu yönde etkilendiği tezi doğrulanmaya çalışılacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rusya, Türk petrol piyasası, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı, ekonomik yaptırım, petrol ticareti, tavan fiyat.

Kaynakça

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