Evaluation of the Relationship Between Smoking and Alcohol Consumption and COVID-19: The Case of Turkey

Öz

In this study, it is aimed to analyze the effect of cigarette and alcohol consumption on the virus, which is thought to be effective in the spread and increase of the severity of the COVID-19 virus, which has been increasingly continuing its existence all over the world in the last period. Starting from this point, the study, the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases, smoking and alcohol consumption variables in Turkey in the period 2020-03-2021-02 was tested with the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The long and short-term asymmetrical relationships between the dependent variable and the independent variable were tested with the NARDL model, it has been revealed how the positive and negative changes in the independent variables affect the dependent variable. In the study, 1% increase in cigarette consumption in the short term increases COVID-19 cases by 24%, 1% reduction reduces COVID-19 cases by 12%. When the results related to alcohol consumption are evaluated in the short term, 1% increase in alcohol consumption increases COVID-19 cases by 72%, 1% reduction reduces COVID-19 cases by 29%.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID-19
• NARDL
• Smoking and Alcohol Use

Sigara ve Alkol Tüketimi ile COVID-19 İlişkisinin Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada, tüm dünyada son dönemde giderek artan bir şekilde varlığını sürdüren COVID-19 virüsünün yayılmasında ve şiddetinin artmasında etkili olduğu düşünülen sigara ve alkol tüketiminin virüs üzerindeki etkisinin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışmada, 2020-03-2021-02 döneminde Türkiye'de COVID-19 vaka sayıları ile sigara ve alkol tüketim değişkenleri arasındaki ilişki Doğrusal Olmayan Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme modeli ile test edilmiştir. Bağımlı değişken ile bağımsız değişken arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli asimetrik ilişkiler NARDL modeli ile test edilmiş, bağımsız değişkenlerdeki olumlu ve olumsuz değişimlerin bağımlı değişkeni nasıl etkilediği ortaya konmuştur. Çalışmada, kısa vadede sigara tüketimindeki %1'lik artış, COVID-19 vakalarını %24 artırırken, %1'lik azalma COVID-19 vakalarını %12 azaltıyor. Alkol tüketimine ilişkin sonuçlar kısa vadede değerlendirildiğinde, alkol tüketimindeki %1'lik artış COVID-19 vakalarını %72 arttırırken, %1'lik azalma ise COVID-19 vakalarını %29 oranında azaltmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID-19
• NARDL
• Sigara ve Alkol Kullanımı

Kaynakça

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