Sistem Düzeyinde Sorulara Stratejik Düzeyde Cevaplar: Yıllık Tehdit Değerlendirmesi Belgeleri

Öz

Uluslararası sistemin kaç kutuplu olduğu realist yaklaşımların temel sorduğu sorulardan biridir çünkü kutup sayısı birbirine benzeyen aktörler olan devletlerin davranışını doğrudan etkileyen faktörlerden biri olarak kabul edilir. Sistemin tek, iki veya çok kutuplu olması uluslararası ilişkilerin anarşik yapısıyla birleştiğinde istikrarı doğrudan etkilemektedir. Nitekim sistemde devletler arası savaşların olduğu dönemlerde realizmin yükselmesi ve kutupluluğa dair sorular sorması doğaldır. Rusya Federasyonu-Ukrayna Savaşı ve Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti’nin yükselişi günümüzde bu soruların daha sık sorulmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışma sistem düzeyinde bir soruyu, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri istihbarat topluluğu tarafından stratejik düzeyde üretilen bir istihbarat ürünü olan Yıllık Tehdit Değerlendirme belgeleri üzerinden cevaplandırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışma Python programlama dili kullanarak kelime analizi ve konu modelleme analizi gerçekleştirmektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları 2017 yılı itibarıyla ABD’nin büyük güç rekabetini Yıllık Tehdit Değerlendirmesine taşımaya başladığı, 2021 itibariyle de büyük güç rekabetini kabul ettiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• yıllık tehdit değerlendirme
• istihbarat
• Amerika Birleşik Devletleri
• Rusya Federasyonu
• Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti

Answers to System-Level Questions at the Strategic Level: Annual Threat Assessment Documents

Öz

The number of poles in the international system is one of the main questions asked by Realist approaches because the number of poles is considered as one of the factors that directly affect the behavior of states, which are like units. Whether the system is unipolar, bipolar or multipolar, combined with the anarchic nature of international relations, directly affects stability. As a matter of fact, it is natural for realism to rise and ask questions about polarity during periods of inter-state wars in the system. The Russian Federation-Ukraine War and the rise of the People's Republic of China have led to these questions being asked more frequently today. This study aims to answer a system-level question through the Annual Threat Assessment, a strategic intelligence product produced by the United States intelligence community. For this purpose, the study performs word analysis and topic modeling analysis using the Python programming language. The results of the study show that as of 2017, the United States began to incorporate great power competition into its Annual Threat Assessment, and by 2021, it accepted great power competition.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• annual threat assessment
• intelligence
• United States of America
• The Russian Federation
• People's Republic of China

Kaynakça

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