Threat Multiplier or Peace Builder: A Systematic Review of the Environment-Security Nexus

Öz

This study examines whether environmental issues lead to armed conflicts or peaceful resolutions among parties. Despite extensive research on environmental security, there is still a lack of scholarly consensus on whether environmental issues trigger armed conflicts or facilitate cooperation. Through a systematic review, this study investigates the nexus between environmental issues and their security outcomes. The study develops a preliminary typology of causal pathways connecting environmental issues to divergent security outcomes while identifying critical research gaps in theory, methodology, and empirical coverage. The research findings reveal that similar environmental issues are more likely to produce divergent security outcomes, depending on five key mediating factors in the environment-conflict nexus, namely (i) governance capacity, (ii) power dynamics, (iii) historical context, (iv) resource characteristics, and (v) external influence. Consequently, environmental issues more readily facilitate cooperation among parties rather than trigger conflicts when robust institutional mechanisms, power symmetry, positive historical relations, alternative resources, and external support exist. These findings have significant implications for policymakers in the areas of conflict prevention, environmental peacebuilding, and institutional design, particularly in environmentally stressed regions, including the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Central Asia.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Environmental Conflict
• Environmental Peacebuilding
• Environmental Security
• Resource Wars

Tehdit Çarpanı veya Barış İnşacısı: Çevre-Güvenlik İlişkisine Sistematik Bir Bakış

Öz

Bu çalışma, çevresel sorunlarının taraflar arasında silahlı çatışmalara mı yoksa barışçıl çözümlere mi yol açtığını incelemektedir. Çevresel güvenlik üzerine yapılan kapsamlı araştırmalara rağmen, çevresel sorunların silahlı çatışmaları tetikleyip tetiklemediği veya işbirliğini kolaylaştırıp kolaylaştırmadığı konusunda hala bir fikir birliği bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma, sistematik bir incelemeyle, çevresel sorunlar ve bunların güvenlik sonuçları arasındaki bağı incelemektedir. Bu amaçla çalışma, teori, metodoloji ve ampirik kapsam noktasında kritik araştırma boşluklarını ortaya koyarken, çevresel sorunları farklı güvenlik sonuçlarına bağlayan nedensel yolların bir başlangıç tipolojisini geliştirmektedir. Araştırma bulguları, benzer çevresel sorunların, çevre-çatışma bağlantısındaki beş temel aracı faktöre, yani (i) yönetişim kapasitesi, (ii) güç dinamikleri, (iii) tarihsel bağlam, (iv) kaynak özellikleri ve (v) dış etkiye bağlı olarak farklı güvenlik sonuçları üretebileceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuç olarak, sağlam kurumsal mekanizmalar, güç simetrisi, olumlu tarihsel ilişkiler, alternatif kaynaklar ve dış destek mevcut olduğunda, çevresel sorunlar taraflar arasında çatışmaları tetiklemekten daha çok işbirliğini kolaylaştırmaktadır. Bu bulgular, özellikle Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika, Sahra Altı Afrika ve Güney ve Orta Asya’yı içeren çevresel açıdan stres altındaki bölgelerde çatışmaların önlenmesi, çevresel barış inşası ve kurumsal tasarım alanlarında politika yapıcılar için önemli çıkarımlar ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çevresel Barış İnşası
• Çevresel Çatışma
• Çevresel Güvenlik
• Kaynak Savaşları

Kaynakça

1. Adams, C., Ide, T., Barnett, J., & Detges, A. (2018). Sampling bias in climate–conflict research. Nature Climate Change, 8(3), 200–203.
2. Adano, W. R., Dietz, T., Witsenburg, K., & Zaal, F. (2012). Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya's drylands. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 65–80.
3. Aigbokhaevbo, V. (2014). The Great Green Wall: Implementation constraints. Environmental Policy and Law, 44(4), 375–379.
4. Ali, S. H. (2002). Peace parks: Conservation and conflict resolution. The MIT Press.
5. Baechler, G. (1999). Violence through environmental discrimination. Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
6. Barnett, J., & Adger, W. N. (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 639–655.
7. Barnett, J., Matthew, R. A., & O'Brien, K. (2010). Global environmental change and human security: An introduction. In R. A. Matthew, J. Barnett, B. McDonald, & K. O'Brien (Eds.), Global environmental change and human security (pp. 3–32). MIT Press.
8. Benjaminsen, T. A. (2008). Does supply-induced scarcity drive violent conflicts in the African Sahel? The case of the Tuareg rebellion in northern Mali. Journal of Peace Research, 45(6), 819–836.

9. Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., & Koubi, V. (2012). Environmental changes and violent conflict. Environmental Research Letters, 7, Article 015601.
10. Bernauer, T., & Siegfried, T. (2012). Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 227–239.
11. Buhaug, H., Nordkvelle, J., Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., Brzoska, M., Busby, J. W., Ciccone, A., Fjelde, H., Gartzke, E., Gleditsch, N. P., Goldstone, J. A., Hegre, H., Holtermann, H., Koubi, V., Link, J. S. A., Link, P. M., Lujala, P., O'Loughlin, J., Raleigh, C., & von Uexkull, N. (2014). One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. Climatic Change, 127(3), 391–397.
12. Buhaug, H. (2010). Climate not to blame for African civil wars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(38), 16477–16482.
13. Buhaug, H. (2015). Climate-conflict research: Some reflections on the way forward. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 6(3), 269–275.
14. Buhaug, H. (2016). Climate change and conflict: Taking stock. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 22(4), 331–338.
15. Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., & Lobell, D. B. (2009). Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(49), 20670–20674.
16. Buzan, B. (1983). People, states & fear: The national security problem in international relations. Wheatsheaf Books.
17. Buzan, B., Wæver, O., & de Wilde, J. (1998). Security: A new framework for analysis. Lynne Rienner Publishers.
18. Carius, A. (2006). Environmental cooperation as an instrument of crisis prevention and peacebuilding: Conditions for success and constraints. Adelphi Report. Environmental Peacebuilding. Adelphi Consult GmbH; German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) – Division 210.
19. CNA Military Advisory Board. (2007). National security and the threat of climate change. Security and Climate. The CNA Corporation.
20. Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2000). Greed and grievance in civil war. Policy Research Working Paper. The World Bank.
21. Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4), 563–595.
22. Conca, K., & Dabelko, G. D. (2002). Environmental peacemaking. Woodrow Wilson Center Press; The Johns Hopkins University Press.
23. Dabelko, G. D., & Dabelko, D. D. (1995). Environmental security: Issues of conflict and redefinition. Environmental Change and Security Project Report. The Woodrow Wilson Center.
24. Dalby, S. (1992). Security, modernity, ecology: The dilemmas of post-Cold War security discourse. Alternatives: Global, Local, Political, 17(1), 95–134.
25. Daoudy, M. (2021). Rethinking the climate–conflict nexus: A human–environmental–climate security approach. Global Environmental Politics, 21(3), 4–25.
26. Deligiannis, T. (2012). The evolution of environment-conflict research: Toward a livelihood framework. Global Environmental Politics, 12(1), 78–100.
27. Deudney, D. (1990). The case against linking environmental degradation and national security. Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 19(3), 461–476.
28. Dinar, S., Dinar, A., & Kurukulasuriya, P. (2011). Scarcity and cooperation along international rivers: An empirical assessment of bilateral treaties. International Studies Quarterly, 55, 809–833.
29. Duffy, R. (2001). Peace parks: The paradox of globalisation. Geopolitics, 6(2), 1–26.
30. Elliott, L. (2015). Human security/environmental security. Contemporary Politics, 21(1), 11–24.
31. Floyd, R. (2010). Security and the environment: Securitisation theory and US environmental security policy. Cambridge University Press.
32. Giordano, M. F., Giordano, M. A., & Wolf, A. T. (2005). International resource conflict and mitigation. Journal of Peace Research, 42(1), 47–65.
33. Gleditsch, N. P. (1998). Armed conflict and the environment: A critique of the literature. Journal of Peace Research, 35(3), 381–400.
34. Gleditsch, N. P. (2012). Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 3–9.
35. Gleick, P. H. (1993). Water and conflict: Fresh water resources and international security. International Security, 18(1), 79–112.
36. Gleick, P. H. (2014). Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6(3), 331–340.
37. Gurr, T. R. (2010). Why men rebel. Paradigm Publishers.
38. Hendrix, C. S., & Salehyan, I. (2012). Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 35–50.
39. Homer-Dixon, T. F. (1994). Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: Evidence from cases. International Security, 19(1), 5–40.
40. Homer-Dixon, T. F. (1999). Environment, scarcity, and violence. Princeton University Press.
41. Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., & Miguel, E. (2013). Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science, 341(6151), Article 1235367.
42. Hsiang, S. M., Meng, K. C., & Cane, M. A. (2011). Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature, 476(7361), 438–441.
43. Ide, T., & Scheffran, J. (2014). On climate, conflict and cumulation: Suggestions for integrative cumulation of knowledge in the research on climate change and violent conflict. Global Change, Peace & Security, 26(3), 263–279.
44. Koubi, V. (2019). Climate change and conflict. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1), 343–360.
45. Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Böhmelt, T., & Bernauer, T. (2014). Do natural resources matter for interstate and intrastate armed conflict? Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), 227–243.
46. Krampe, F., & Mobjörk, M. (2018). Responding to climate-related security risks: Reviewing regional organizations in Asia and Africa. Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 330–337.
47. Le Billon, P. (2001). The political ecology of war: Natural resources and armed conflicts. Political Geography, 20(5), 561–584.
48. Le Billon, P. (2005). Fuelling war: Natural resources and armed conflicts. Routledge.
49. Mach, K. J., Kraan, C. M., Adger, W. N., Buhaug, H., Burke, M., Fearon, J. D., Field, C. B., Hendrix, C. S., Maystadt, J.-F., O'Loughlin, J., Roessler, P., Scheffran, J., Schultz, K. A., & von Uexkull, N. (2019). Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature, 571(7764), 193–197.
50. Malhi, Y. (2017). The concept of the Anthropocene. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 42(1), 77–104.
51. Mathews, J. T. (1989). Redefining security. Foreign Affairs, 68(2), 162–177.
52. Matthew, R. A., Barnett, J., McDonald, B., & O'Brien, K. (Eds.). (2010). Global environmental change and human security. MIT Press.
53. Matthew, R., Brown, O., & Jensen, D. (2009). From conflict to peacebuilding: The role of natural resources and the environment. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
54. Mitchell, S. M., & Zawahri, N. A. (2015). The effectiveness of treaty design in addressing water disputes. Journal of Peace Research, 52(2), 187–200.
55. Myers, N. (1989). Environment and security. Foreign Policy, 74(2), 23–41.
56. O'Brien, K., & Barnett, J. (2013). Global environmental change and human security. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 38(1), 373–391.
57. O'Loughlin, J., Witmer, F. D. W., Linke, A. M., Laing, A., Gettelman, A., & Dudhia, J. (2012). Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(45), 18344–18349.
58. Raleigh, C., & Urdal, H. (2007). Climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 674–694.
59. Renner, M. (1988). National security: The economic and environmental dimensions. Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, 8(6), 571–572.
60. Ross, M. (2003). The natural resource curse: How wealth can make you poor. In I. Bannon & P. Collier (Eds.), Natural resources and violent conflict: Options and actions (pp. 17–42). The World Bank.
61. Ross, M. L. (2004). What do we know about natural resources and civil war? Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 337–356.
62. Rustad, S. A. (2024). Conflict trends: A global overview, 1946-2023. PRIO Paper. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
63. Salehyan, I. (2014). Climate change and conflict: Making sense of disparate findings. Political Geography, 43, 1–5.
64. Scheffran, J., Brzoska, M., Brauch, H. G., Link, P. M., & Schilling, J. (2012). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
65. Scheffran, J., Brzoska, M., Kominek, J., Link, P. M., & Schilling, J. (2012). Climate change and violent conflict. Science, 336(6083), 869–871.
66. Schleussner, C.-F., Donges, J. F., Donner, R. V., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2016). Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(33), 9216–9221.
67. Selby, J., Dahi, O. S., Fröhlich, C., & Hulme, M. (2017). Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited. Political Geography, 60, 232–244.
68. Singleton, S. (2000). Co‐operation or capture? The paradox of co‐management and community participation in natural resource management and environmental policy‐making. Environmental Politics, 9(2), 1–21.
69. Theisen, O. M. (2008). Blood and soil? Resource scarcity and internal armed conflict revisited. Journal of Peace Research, 45(6), 801–818.
70. Tir, J., & Stinnett, D. M. (2012). Weathering climate change: Can institutions mitigate international water conflict? Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 211–225.
71. Ullman, R. H. (1983). Redefining security. International Security, 8(1), 129–153.
72. UNCCD. (2014). The land in numbers: Livelihoods at a tipping point. UN Convention to Combat Desertification.
73. UNDP Team. (1994). Human development report 1994: New dimensions of human security. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
74. UNDP Team. (2022). New threats to human security in the Anthropocene: Demanding greater solidarity. Special Report 2022. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
75. von Uexkull, N., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., & Buhaug, H. (2016). Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(44), 12391–12396.
76. Wæver, O. (2007). Securitization and desecuritization. In B. Buzan & L. Hansen (Eds.), International security (pp. 66–98). SAGE.
77. Walt, S. M. (1991). The renaissance of security studies. International Studies Quarterly, 35(2), 211–239.
78. Weinert, M. S. (2009). From state security to human security? In P. Hayden (Ed.), The Ashgate research companion to ethics and international relations (pp. 151–165). Ashgate.
79. Weinert, M. S. (2011). Reframing the pluralist-solidarist debate. Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 40(1), 21–41.
80. Wolf, A. T. (1998). Conflict and cooperation along international waterways. Water Policy, 1, 251–265.
81. Wolf, A. T. (2007). Shared waters: Conflict and cooperation. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 32(1), 241–269.
82. Wolf, A. T., Yoffe, S. B., & Giordano, M. (2003). International waters: Identifying basins at risk. Water Policy, 5(1), 29–60.
83. Xu, C. (2025). Achieving environmental justice: The role of climate finance and international cooperation between developed and developing countries. University of St Andrews Law Journal, 4(1), 66–78.
84. Young, O. R. (2002). The institutional dimensions of environmental change: Fit, interplay, and scale. The MIT Press.