YABANCI SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNİN YURTİÇİ YATIRIMLARA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER İÇİN BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 114, 135 - 155, 01.09.2019

Semra Boğa

Öz

Bu çalışma; Bangladeş, Botswana, Brezilya, Çin, Endonezya, Fas, Filipinler, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Meksika, Pakistan, Peru, Tayland ve Türkiye’den oluşan 14 gelişmekte olan ülkede yabancı sermaye girişleri ve yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkileri 1990-2017 dönemi için ampirik olarak analiz etmektedir. Birimler arasındaki korelasyonu test etmek için Pesaran Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Testi, durağanlık seviyelerinin belirlenmesi için IPS Birim Kök Testi uygulanmıştır. Dumitrescu ve Hurlin Panel Granger Nedensellik testi sonuçları kısa vadede; Portföy Yatırımlarından PRF Gayri Safi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumuna GFC doğru tek yönlü, GFC ile Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla GDP , GFC ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım DYY ve GFC ile Yabancı Krediler LNS arasında ise çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiler DOLSMG tahmincisi ile test edilmiştir. Test sonuçlarına göre; DYY’deki %1’lik artış GFC’yi %0.59 oranında azaltmakta, GSYH’deki %1’lik artış GFC’yi %0.45 oranında, PRF’deki %1’lik artış GFC’yi %1.68 oranında ve LNS’deki %1’lik artış GFC’yi %2.12 oranında artırmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım DYY , Portföy Yatırımı, Yabancı Kredi, Yurtiçi Yatırım, Panel Veri Analizi.

IMPACT OF FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS ON DOMESTIC INVESTMENTS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Öz

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between the foreign capital inflows and domestic investment in 14 developing countries -Bangladesh, Botswana, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey- over the period 1990-2017. Pesaran’s Cross-Section Dependence Test was performed to test the correlation and IPS Unit Root Test was applied to reveal the stationarity level between the units. Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s Granger Panel Causality test results confirmed a one-way causality from Portfolio Investment PRF to Gross Fixed Capital Formation GFC and a bidirectional causality between GFC and Gross Domestic Product GDP , GFC and Foreign Direct Investment FDI , GFC and Foreign Loans LNS in the short-term. Long-term relationships between the variables were tested with the DOLSMG estimator. According to the test results; a 1% rise in FDI decreases GFC by 0.59 %, a 1% rise in GDP increases GFC by 0.45 %, a 1% rise in PRF increases GFC by 1.68 %, and a 1% rise in LNS boosts GFC by 2.12 %.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Direct Investment FDI , Portfolio Investment, Foreign Loan, Domestic Investment, Panel Data Analysis.

Kaynakça

• Acar, Sevil, Eris, Bilge & Tekce, Mahmut (2012), “The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic Investment: Evidence from MENA Countries”, European Trade Study Group (ETSG) 14th Annual Conference, September, Leuven.
• Aizenman, Joshua & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur (2013), “Why Do Emerging Markets Liberalize Capital Outflow Controls? Fiscal versus Net Capital Flow Concerns”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 39(C): 28–64.
• Amadou, Akilou (2011), “The Effect of Foreign Capital on Domestic Investment in Togo”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5): 223-226.
• Borensztein, Eduardo, De Gregorio, Jose & Lee, Jong-Wha (1998), “How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Growth? ”, Journal of International Economics, 45(1): 155-135.
• Bosworth, Barry P. & Collins, Susan M. (1999), “Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 143-180.
• Bulut, Erol & Coşkun, Çağrı (2015), “Effects of Foreign Direct Investments on the Domestic Investments: Turkish Case”, Niğde University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal, 8(4): 1-27.
• Colombo, Jefferson A., Loncan, Tiago R. & Joao, F. Caldeira (2019), “Do Foreign Portfolio Capital Flows Affect Domestic Investment? Evidence from Brazil”, International Journal of Finance and Economic, 24(2): 855-883.
• Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe (2012), “Testing for Granger Noncausality in Heterogeneous Panels”, Economic Modelling, 29(4):1450- 1460.
• Esener, Selçuk Çağrı, Darıcı, Burak & Karadağ, Yaprak (2017), “The Effects of Public Expenditure, Foreign Direct Investment and Openness on Fixed Capital Formation”, 2nd Mediterranean International Congress on Social Sciences (MECAS II), 553-570.
• Erkisi, Kemal & Ceyhan, Turgay (2019), “Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for Transition Economies in Europe”, Journal of Economic, Finance and Accounting, 6(2): 82-94
• Fahinde, Charles, Abodohoui, Alexis, Mohiuddin, Muhammad & Su, Zhan (2015), “External Financial Inflows and Domestic Investment in the Economies of WAEMU: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 49(3): 229-248.
• Feldstein, Martin (2000), “Aspects of Global Economic Integration: Outlook for the Future”, NBER Working Papers, No. 7899.
• Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan (1991), “Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets”, American Economic Review, 81(2): 222- 226.
• Harrison, Ann E., Love, Inessa & McMillan, Margaret S. (2004), “Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints”, Journal of Development Economics, 75: 269-301.
• Hecht, Yoel, Razin, Assaf & Shinar, Nitsan Gat (2004), “Interactions between Capital Inflows and Domestic Investment: International Panel Data”, Israel Economic Review, 2(2): 1-14.
• International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2009), Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6).
• Kose, M. Ayhan, Prasad, Eswar, Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin (2009), “Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal”, IMF Staff Papers, 56(1): 8-62.
• Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara (1998), “Capital Control Liberalization and Stock Market Development”, World Development, 26(7): 1169–1183.
• Massoud, Ali (2013), “Understanding the Behavior of FDI and Its Role in Capital Formation in Egypt”, Commercial Studies, 53: 1-27.
• Megbowon, Ebenzer Toyin, Ngarava, Saul & Mushunje, Abby (2016), “Foreign Direct Investment Inflow, Capital Formation and Employment in South Africa: A Time Series Analysis”, International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 8(2): 175-189.
• Meurer, Roberto (2016), “Portfolio Investment Flows, GDP, and Investment in Brazil”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(12): 1-9.
• Mileva, Elitza (2008), “The Impact of Capital Flows on Domestic Investment in Transition Economies”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 871.
• Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini (2005), “Growing Up with Capital Flows”, Journal of International Economics, 65(1): 249-266.
• Pedroni, Peter (2001). “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83: 727-731.
• Pesaran, M. Hashem (2004). “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, IZA Discussion Paper, 1240.
• Ranjan, Rajiv & Kumar, Sunil (2012), “An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Capital Inflows on Domestic Investment in India”, Indian Economic Review, 47(1): 15-32.
• Shah, Syed Hasanat, Hasnat, Hafsa & Li, Junjlang (2010), “Does Foreign Capital Inflows Really Stimulate Domestic Investment: A Case Study of Pakistan”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No. 35737.
• Singh, Ajit & Weisse, Bruce A. (1998), “Emerging Stock Markets, Portfolio Capital Flows and Long-term Economic Growth: Micro and Macroeconomic Perspectives”, World Development, 26(4): 607–622.
• Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2000), “Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability”, World Development, 28(6): 1075–1086.
• Stulz, Rene M. (2005), “The Limits of Financial Globalization”, Journal of Finance, 60(4), 1595–1638.
• The World Bank (2018), World Development Indicators. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. https://datacatalog.worldbank.org
• Ugwuegbe, Sebastine Ugochukwu, Modebe, Nwanneka Judith & Onyeanu, Edith (2014), “The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Capital Formation in Nigeria: A Co-integration Approach”, International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 2(2): 188-196.
• Ullah, Irfan, Shah, Mahmood & Khan, Farid Ullah (2014), “Domestic Investment, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth Nexus: A Case of Pakistan”, Hindawi Publishing Corporation Economics Research International, 1-5.
• UNCTAD (2019), World Investment Report 2019: Special Economic Zones, United Nations Publications, New York.
• UNCTC (1991), World Investment Report 1991: The Triad in Foreign Direct Investment, United Nation Publications: New York.