KÜRESEL EKONOMİK YAVAŞLAMA: RİSKLER, BELİRSİZLİKLER VE TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNE ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 116, 33 - 64, 01.03.2020

Recep Emre Eriçok

Öz

Günümüzde, küresel ekonomi belirgin ve eş zamanlı bir yavaşlama içerisindedir. Başta ticaret savaşları, jeopolitik gerginlikler ve Brexit belirsizliği olmak üzere pek çok faktörün etkisiyle 2019 yılında küresel kriz sonrası en düşük büyüme gerçekleşmiştir. Ayrıca, küresel ekonomik yavaşlama tüm önemli ekonomilere yayılmış durumdadır. Gelişmiş ekonomilerin yanı sıra gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde de yavaşlama eğilimi dikkat çekicidir. 2020 yılına iyimser beklentilerle başlansa da koronavirüs salgını başta olmak üzere pek çok risk ve belirsizlik nedeniyle küresel ekonomik büyüme oldukça kırılgan bir görünüme sahiptir. Küresel ekonomik sorunların çözümünde ticaret engellerinin gevşetilmesi, jeopolitik gerginliklerin ve politika belirsizliklerinin azaltılması gerekmektedir. Bu bağlamda, küresel koordinasyon ve işbirliğinin güçlendirilmesi büyük önem taşımaktadır. Küresel kriz sonrasında yoğun şekilde uygulanan para politikalarının yanı sıra kısa vadede talebin desteklenmesi ve orta vadede kapsayıcı büyüme potansiyelinin artırılması için maliye politikaları ve yapısal politikaların daha aktif şekilde kullanılması gerekmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küresel Ekonomik Yavaşlama, Küresel Riskler ve Belirsizlikler, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Para Politikası, Maliye Politikası

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN: RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Öz

Today the global economy is undergoing a significant and simultaneous slowdown. Following the global crisis, the lowest growth rate was recorded in 2019 due to the effects of many factors including trade wars, geopolitical tensions and Brexit uncertainty. Moreover, the global economic slowdown has spread to all major economies. The slowdown trend in the emerging economies as well as the developed ones is remarkable. Although the year 2020 started with optimistic expectations, global economic growth has a very fragile appearance due to many risks and uncertainties, especially the coronavirus epidemic. As a solution to global economic problems, trade barriers should be relaxed and geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties should be reduced. In this context, strengthening global coordination and cooperation is important. In addition to monetary policies implemented intensively after the global crisis, fiscal policies and structural policies should be used more actively to support the demand in the short term and to increase the inclusive growth potential in the medium term. In this study conducted to examine the global economic slowdown, risks, uncertainties and their effects on the Turkish Economy, first the transition process from globalization to global slowdown was analysed. Also, the historical development of the globalization, the current level it reached and the factors determining change were addressed. Then, the developments in the Turkish Economy and the effects of the global risks and uncertainties were examined by clarifying the main trends about the global economic slowdown, risks and uncertainties. Finally, some policy suggestions on global risks and uncertainties were provided. The results of the study show that Turkey is significantly affected by the developments in the global economy besides its own structural problems. In this context, it is crucial to make trust and stability permanent and to focus on structural reforms to support the sustainable growth based on the total factor productivity.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Global Economic Slowdown, Global Risks and Uncertainties, Turkish Economy, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy

Kaynakça

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