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TAX–SPEND CAUSALITY IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TEST IN FREQUENCY DOMAIN

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 116, 121 - 139, 01.03.2020

Öz

In this study, we aim to identify the causality relationship between taxes and public expenditures for Turkey over the period January 2006 - November 2019 using asymmetric causality test in the frequency domain. The results of the study show that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from tax revenues to public expenditures in the long term, while there exists a one-way asymmetric causality relationship in the short, medium and long term, for positive shocks. Therefore, we conclude that the tax-expenditure hypothesis is valid in the long term, while the asymmetric tax-expenditure hypothesis is valid in the short, medium, and long terms.

Kaynakça

  • Akar, Sevda (2014), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Gelir ve Harcamalarının Ampirik Analizi”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 8(1), s. 141-159.
  • Akbulut, Hale ve Ahmet Burçin Yereli (2016), “Kamu Gelirleri ve Kamu Harcamaları Nedensellik İlişkisi: 2006-2015 Dönemi İçin Türkiye Örneği”, Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), s. 103-119.
  • Akça, Haşim ve Cevat Bilgin (2013), “Harca-Vergilendir veya Vergilendir-Harca: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Araştırma”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(1), s. 143-157.
  • Akçağlayan, Anıl ve Meltem Kayıran (2010), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Gelirleri: Nedensellik İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 5(2), s. 129-146.
  • Aksu, Hayati, Serkan Künü ve Gürkan Bozma (2017), “Mali Senkronizasyon Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli mi?”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 31(2), s. 311-324
  • Afonso, António ve Christophe Rault (2009), “Spend and Tax: A Panel Data Investigation for The EU”, Economics Bulletin, 29(4), pp. 2542-2548.
  • Al-Qudair, Khaid H. A. (2005), “The Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Revenues in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Testing for Cointegration and Causality”, JKAU, 19(1), pp. 31–43.
  • Apergis, Nicholas, James E. Payne ve James W. Saunoris (2012), “Tax-spend Nexus in Greece: Are There Asymmetries?”, Journal of Economic Studies, 39 (3), pp. 327 – 336.
  • Aslan, Murat ve Murat Taşdemir (2009), “Is Fiscal Synchronization Hypothesis Relevant for Turkey? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests with Endogenous Structural Breaks”, Journal of Money, Investment and Banking, 12, pp. 14-25.
  • Baghestani, Hamid ve Robert McNown (1994), “Do Revenues or Expenditures Respond to Budgetary Disequilibria?”, Southern Economic Journal, 60(2), pp. 311-322.
  • Barro, Robert J. (1979), “On the Determination of the Public Debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 87 (5, Part 1), pp. 940-971.
  • Boratav, Korkut (2003), Türkiye İktisat Tarihi 1908-2002, İmge Kitabevi, Ankara. Buchanan, James M. ve Richard E. Wagner (1977), Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, Academic Press, New York.
  • Chang, Tsangyao ve Chiang Gengnan (2009), “Revisiting the Government Revenue Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries Based On the Panel Data Approach”, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 59(2), pp. 165-172.
  • Chang, Tsangyao ve Yuan-Hong Ho (2002), “A Note on Testing Tax and Spend, Spend and Tax or Fiscal Synchronization: The Case of China”, Journal of Economic Development, 27(1), pp. 151-160.
  • Croux, Christophe ve Peter Reusens (2013), “Do Stock Prices Contain Predictive Power For The Future Economic Activity? A Granger Causality Analysis in the Frequency Domain”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, pp. 93-103.
  • Darrat, Ali F. (1998), “Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An Inquiry into the Turkish Budgetary Process”, Southern Economic Journal, 64(4), pp. 940- 956.
  • Dickey, David. A. ve Wayne A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), pp. 427-431.
  • Dökmen, Gökhan (2012), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Kamu Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(2), s. 115-143.
  • Enders, Walter ve Junsoo Lee (2012), “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey– Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”, Economics Letters, 117(1), pp. 196-199.
  • Friedman, Milton (1978), “The Limitations of Tax Limitation”, Quadrant, 22(8), pp. 7-14.
  • Granger, Clive WJ ve Gawon Yoon. (2002), “Hidden cointegration”. University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Economics Working Paper, (2002-02).
  • Hatemi-j, Abdulnasser (2012), “Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application”, Empirical Economics, pp. 43(1), pp. 447-456.
  • Hussain, M. Haider (2004), “On the Causal Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Pakistan”, The Lahore Journal of Economics, 9(2), pp. 105-118.
  • Kazungu, Khatibu (2019). “The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Revenue in Tanzania”. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 7(4), pp. 158-170.
  • Kwiatkowski, Denis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt, ve Yongcheol Shin (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), pp. 159-178.
  • Li, Xiaoming (2001), “Government Revenue, Government Expenditure, and Temporal Causality: Evidence from China”, Applied Economics, 33 (4), pp. 485- 497
  • López-Vera, Alejandro, Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero, ve Norberto Rodríguez-Niñ (2018), “Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia”. Ensayos sobre Polítıca Económıca, 36(SPE85), pp. 48-64.
  • Meltzer, Allan H. ve Scott F. Richard (1981), “A Rational Theory of the Size of Government”, Journal of Political Economy, 89 (5), pp. 914-927.
  • Musgrave, Richard (1966), Principles of Budget Determination, in: H. Cameron & W. Henderson (eds.), Public Finance: Selected Readings, New York: Random House, 15-27.
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar ve Seema Narayan (2006), “Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from Developing Countries”, Applied Economics, 38(3), pp. 285-291.
  • Park, Wan Kyu (1998), “Granger Causality between Government Revenues and Expenditures in Korea”, Journal of Economic Development, 23(1), pp. 145- 155
  • Payne, James E. (2003), “A Survey of the International Empirical Evidence on the Tax-Spend Debate”, Public Finance Review, 31(3), pp. 302-324.
  • Peacock, Alan T. ve Jack Wiseman (1979), “Approaches to the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth”, Public Finance Review, 7(1), pp. 3-23.
  • Said, Said E. ve David A. Dickey (1984), “Testing for Unit Roots in AutoregressiveMoving Average Models of Unknown Order”. Biometrika, 71(3), pp. 599- 607.
  • Turan, Taner ve Mesut Karakaş (2018), “Devlet Harcamaları ve Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Doğrusal Olmayan Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı (NARDL)”, Sosyoekonomi, 26(36), s. 33-48.
  • TÜSİAD (2017), 2017 Yılına Girerken Türkiye ve Dünya Ekonomisi, Ekonomik Araştırmalar Bölümü, Yayın No: T/2016-12/584.
  • TÜSİAD (2020), 2020 Yılına Girerken Türkiye ve Dünya Ekonomisi, Ekonomik Araştırmalar Bölümü, Yayın No: TÜSİAD-T/2020-02/612.
  • Wildavsky, Aaron B ve Naomi Caiden (1988), The New Politics of the Budgetary Process, Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman

Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ile Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Frekans Alanda Asimetrik Testinden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 116, 121 - 139, 01.03.2020

Öz

Bu çalışmada frekans alanda asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanılarak, Türkiye’de Ocak 2006 - Kasım 2019 arası kamu harcamaları ile vergiler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda uzun dönemde vergi gelirlerinden kamu harcamalarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi var iken, vergi gelirlerinin pozitif şoklarından kamu harcamalarının pozitif şoklarına doğru, kısa, orta ve uzun vadede tek yönlü asimetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmüştür. Dolayısıyla uzun dönemde Türkiye’de vergi-harcama hipotezinin geçerli olduğu; kısa, orta ve uzun vadelerde ise asimetrik vergi-harcama hipotezinin geçerli olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır

Kaynakça

  • Akar, Sevda (2014), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Gelir ve Harcamalarının Ampirik Analizi”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 8(1), s. 141-159.
  • Akbulut, Hale ve Ahmet Burçin Yereli (2016), “Kamu Gelirleri ve Kamu Harcamaları Nedensellik İlişkisi: 2006-2015 Dönemi İçin Türkiye Örneği”, Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), s. 103-119.
  • Akça, Haşim ve Cevat Bilgin (2013), “Harca-Vergilendir veya Vergilendir-Harca: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Araştırma”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(1), s. 143-157.
  • Akçağlayan, Anıl ve Meltem Kayıran (2010), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Gelirleri: Nedensellik İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 5(2), s. 129-146.
  • Aksu, Hayati, Serkan Künü ve Gürkan Bozma (2017), “Mali Senkronizasyon Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli mi?”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 31(2), s. 311-324
  • Afonso, António ve Christophe Rault (2009), “Spend and Tax: A Panel Data Investigation for The EU”, Economics Bulletin, 29(4), pp. 2542-2548.
  • Al-Qudair, Khaid H. A. (2005), “The Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Revenues in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Testing for Cointegration and Causality”, JKAU, 19(1), pp. 31–43.
  • Apergis, Nicholas, James E. Payne ve James W. Saunoris (2012), “Tax-spend Nexus in Greece: Are There Asymmetries?”, Journal of Economic Studies, 39 (3), pp. 327 – 336.
  • Aslan, Murat ve Murat Taşdemir (2009), “Is Fiscal Synchronization Hypothesis Relevant for Turkey? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests with Endogenous Structural Breaks”, Journal of Money, Investment and Banking, 12, pp. 14-25.
  • Baghestani, Hamid ve Robert McNown (1994), “Do Revenues or Expenditures Respond to Budgetary Disequilibria?”, Southern Economic Journal, 60(2), pp. 311-322.
  • Barro, Robert J. (1979), “On the Determination of the Public Debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 87 (5, Part 1), pp. 940-971.
  • Boratav, Korkut (2003), Türkiye İktisat Tarihi 1908-2002, İmge Kitabevi, Ankara. Buchanan, James M. ve Richard E. Wagner (1977), Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, Academic Press, New York.
  • Chang, Tsangyao ve Chiang Gengnan (2009), “Revisiting the Government Revenue Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries Based On the Panel Data Approach”, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 59(2), pp. 165-172.
  • Chang, Tsangyao ve Yuan-Hong Ho (2002), “A Note on Testing Tax and Spend, Spend and Tax or Fiscal Synchronization: The Case of China”, Journal of Economic Development, 27(1), pp. 151-160.
  • Croux, Christophe ve Peter Reusens (2013), “Do Stock Prices Contain Predictive Power For The Future Economic Activity? A Granger Causality Analysis in the Frequency Domain”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, pp. 93-103.
  • Darrat, Ali F. (1998), “Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An Inquiry into the Turkish Budgetary Process”, Southern Economic Journal, 64(4), pp. 940- 956.
  • Dickey, David. A. ve Wayne A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), pp. 427-431.
  • Dökmen, Gökhan (2012), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Kamu Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(2), s. 115-143.
  • Enders, Walter ve Junsoo Lee (2012), “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey– Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”, Economics Letters, 117(1), pp. 196-199.
  • Friedman, Milton (1978), “The Limitations of Tax Limitation”, Quadrant, 22(8), pp. 7-14.
  • Granger, Clive WJ ve Gawon Yoon. (2002), “Hidden cointegration”. University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Economics Working Paper, (2002-02).
  • Hatemi-j, Abdulnasser (2012), “Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application”, Empirical Economics, pp. 43(1), pp. 447-456.
  • Hussain, M. Haider (2004), “On the Causal Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Pakistan”, The Lahore Journal of Economics, 9(2), pp. 105-118.
  • Kazungu, Khatibu (2019). “The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Revenue in Tanzania”. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 7(4), pp. 158-170.
  • Kwiatkowski, Denis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt, ve Yongcheol Shin (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), pp. 159-178.
  • Li, Xiaoming (2001), “Government Revenue, Government Expenditure, and Temporal Causality: Evidence from China”, Applied Economics, 33 (4), pp. 485- 497
  • López-Vera, Alejandro, Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero, ve Norberto Rodríguez-Niñ (2018), “Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia”. Ensayos sobre Polítıca Económıca, 36(SPE85), pp. 48-64.
  • Meltzer, Allan H. ve Scott F. Richard (1981), “A Rational Theory of the Size of Government”, Journal of Political Economy, 89 (5), pp. 914-927.
  • Musgrave, Richard (1966), Principles of Budget Determination, in: H. Cameron & W. Henderson (eds.), Public Finance: Selected Readings, New York: Random House, 15-27.
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar ve Seema Narayan (2006), “Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from Developing Countries”, Applied Economics, 38(3), pp. 285-291.
  • Park, Wan Kyu (1998), “Granger Causality between Government Revenues and Expenditures in Korea”, Journal of Economic Development, 23(1), pp. 145- 155
  • Payne, James E. (2003), “A Survey of the International Empirical Evidence on the Tax-Spend Debate”, Public Finance Review, 31(3), pp. 302-324.
  • Peacock, Alan T. ve Jack Wiseman (1979), “Approaches to the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth”, Public Finance Review, 7(1), pp. 3-23.
  • Said, Said E. ve David A. Dickey (1984), “Testing for Unit Roots in AutoregressiveMoving Average Models of Unknown Order”. Biometrika, 71(3), pp. 599- 607.
  • Turan, Taner ve Mesut Karakaş (2018), “Devlet Harcamaları ve Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Doğrusal Olmayan Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı (NARDL)”, Sosyoekonomi, 26(36), s. 33-48.
  • TÜSİAD (2017), 2017 Yılına Girerken Türkiye ve Dünya Ekonomisi, Ekonomik Araştırmalar Bölümü, Yayın No: T/2016-12/584.
  • TÜSİAD (2020), 2020 Yılına Girerken Türkiye ve Dünya Ekonomisi, Ekonomik Araştırmalar Bölümü, Yayın No: TÜSİAD-T/2020-02/612.
  • Wildavsky, Aaron B ve Naomi Caiden (1988), The New Politics of the Budgetary Process, Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Veli Yılancı Bu kişi benim

Mahmut Ünsal Şaşmaz Bu kişi benim

Ömer Faruk Öztürk Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Mart 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Sayı: 116

Kaynak Göster

APA Yılancı, V., Şaşmaz, M. Ü., & Öztürk, Ö. F. (2020). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ile Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Frekans Alanda Asimetrik Testinden Kanıtlar. Sayıştay Dergisi(116), 121-139.