TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİNDE KİRLİLİK SIĞINAĞI VE KİRLENME HALE HİPOTEZLERİ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 33, 104 - 140, 30.04.2019

Güller Şahin Levent Gökdemir Fatih Volkan Ayyıldız

Öz

Araştırmanın amacı, uluslararası ticaretin çevre
kirliliği üzerindeki etkisini kirlilik sığınağı ve kirlenme hale hipotezleri
kapsamında Türkiye örneğinde 1990-2015 dönemi içerisinde incelemektir. Amaç bağlamında
sera gazı salınımları, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, imalat sanayisinde katma
değer ve uluslararası ticarete ilişkin üç farklı parametre kullanılmıştır. Temel
bulgular: (1) Eşbütünleşme sonuçları, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir
ilişkinin varlığının; değişkenlerin çoğunlukla sera gazı salınımlarını
artırdığının (2) Hata Düzeltme Modeli sonuçları, 1 birimlik sapmanın yaklaşık
%12’sinin bir sonraki dönemde düzelerek kısa dönem dengesizliklerinin ortadan
kalktığının kanıtlarını sunmuştur. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin açık piyasa yapısına
bağlı olarak ticaretin kirliliği genel anlamda artırdığını ve kirlilik sığınağı
hipotezinin kanıtlarının güçlü olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi, Kirlenme Hale Hipotezi, Türkiye, Eşbütünleşme Metodolojisi

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