THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON CREDIT VOLUME IN TURKEY: A GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODEL (GAM) PERSPECTIVE

Öz

This study examines the relationship between total credit volume and macroeconomic indicators in Turkey using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The research analyzes the effects of key macroeconomic indicators most commonly used in literature, such as interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation, and real sector confidence index, on credit volume. Analysis of the GAM results emphasizes that these variables demonstrate significant and predominantly non-linear effects on credit volume. Notably, money supply (M1), consumer price index (CPI), and commercial credit interest rate (CCIR) variables exhibited the strongest effects on credit interest. The model's high predictive performance is evident, explaining 99.9% of the dependent variable's variance. The study reveals the complex and non-linear nature of macroeconomic indicators' effects on credit volume and demonstrates that the GAM model is a highly effective tool for analyzing such relationships. The findings underscore the importance of non-linear relationships in economic analyses while providing policymakers with a more comprehensive assessment. For future research, it is recommended to expand the analyses using different data analysis techniques and datasets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• GAM Model
• Total Credit Volume
• Macroeconomic Indicators

GENELLEŞTİRİLMİŞ KATMANLI MODEL (GAM) PERSPEKTİFİNDEN TÜRKİYE'DE MAKROEKONOMİK GÖSTERGELERİN KREDİ HACMİNE ETKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki toplam kredi hacminin makroekonomik göstergelerle ilişkisini Genelleştirilmiş Katmanlı Model (GAM) kullanarak incelemiştir. Araştırma, faiz oranları, döviz kurları, para arzı, enflasyon ve reel sektör güven endeksi gibi literatürde en çok kullanılan önemli makroekonomik göstergelerin kredi hacmi üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmiştir. GAM analiz sonuçları incelendiğinde, bu değişkenlerin kredi hacmi üzerinde anlamlı ve çoğunlukla doğrusal olmayan etkiler ortaya koyduğu vurgulanmıştır. Özellikle para arzı (M1), tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) ve ticari kredi faiz oranı (TCRFAİZ) değişkenleri kredi faizi üzerinde en güçlü etkileri göstermiştir. Modelin, bağımlı değişkenin varyansının %99.9'unu açıklayarak yüksek bir tahmin performansı ortaya koyduğu söylenebilir. Çalışma, makroekonomik göstergelerin kredi hacmi üzerindeki etkilerinin karmaşık ve doğrusal olmayan yapısını ortaya koymakta ve GAM modelinin buna benzer ilişkileri analiz etmede oldukça başarılı bir araç olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, ekonomik analizlerde doğrusal olmayan ilişkilerin önemini vurgulamakla beraber politika yapıcılar için daha kapsamlı bir değerlendirme sunmaktadır. Gelecekteki araştırmalar için, farklı veri analizi teknikleri ve veri setleriyle analizlerin genişletilmesi önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• GAM Modeli
• Toplam Kredi Hacmi
• Makroekonomik Göstergeler

Kaynakça

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