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A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3, - , 09.04.2009

Öz

The fields of seismology and earthquake engineering deal with the studies for earthquake predictions, hazard assessments and the prevention of possible damage due to destructive earthquakes. Various kind of statistical models are used for the earthquake occurences. The most familiar model is a Poisson process for random series of events. However, the Poisson process is insufficient if the incorporation of more information about the seismic process is required. Recently, a compound Poisson process has been proposed an alternative to the Poisson process for the earthquake analysis. In this study, the compound Poisson process is introduced and the probabilities of earthquake numbers with magnitude M ³ 5.0 which will occur within 3 and 6 months; 5 and 10 years have been obtained for Turkey from the Poisson process. Then, it is shown that the aftershock sequences follow a geometric distribution. By this way, the probabilities of total number of aftershocks which will occur within one year and two years with magnitude M ³ 4.0 in Turkey are obtained from the compound Poisson process. Finally, the expected values of main shocks and total number of aftershocks which will occur within one year and two years are computed. The results show that the earthquake occurrence probability with magnitude M ³ 5.0 increases, whereas the probability of total number of aftershocks with magnitude M ³ 4.0 decreases in Turkey as the time increases. Besides, the total aftershock number with magnitude M ³ 4.0 , after a main shock with magnitude M ³ 5.0, equals to zero with the probability 0.48 within one year. The findings also indicate that approximately 130 main shocks with M ³ 5.0 , 28 aftershocks with magnitude M ³ 4.0 are expected within 30 years in Turkey.

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm TEMEL BİLİMLER
Yazarlar

Gamze Özel Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 9 Nisan 2009
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2008 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Özel, G. (2009). A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12(3). https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufbed.36062
AMA Özel G. A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey. Süleyman Demirel Üniv. Fen Bilim. Enst. Derg. Nisan 2009;12(3). doi:10.19113/sdufbed.36062
Chicago Özel, Gamze. “A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi 12, sy. 3 (Nisan 2009). https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufbed.36062.
EndNote Özel G (01 Nisan 2009) A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi 12 3
IEEE G. Özel, “A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey”, Süleyman Demirel Üniv. Fen Bilim. Enst. Derg., c. 12, sy. 3, 2009, doi: 10.19113/sdufbed.36062.
ISNAD Özel, Gamze. “A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi 12/3 (Nisan 2009). https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufbed.36062.
JAMA Özel G. A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey. Süleyman Demirel Üniv. Fen Bilim. Enst. Derg. 2009;12. doi:10.19113/sdufbed.36062.
MLA Özel, Gamze. “A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, c. 12, sy. 3, 2009, doi:10.19113/sdufbed.36062.
Vancouver Özel G. A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey. Süleyman Demirel Üniv. Fen Bilim. Enst. Derg. 2009;12(3).

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Linking ISSN (ISSN-L): 1300-7688

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