Zaman Serileri Tahminlenmesinde Makine Öğrenimi ve Derin Öğrenme Tekniklerinin Kıyaslanması: Türkiye Elektirik Üretimi için En İyi Tahmin Modelinin Seçilmesine Yönelik Bir Vaka Çalışması

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2, 635 - 646, 25.08.2019

Ramazan Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufenbed.494396

Cited By: 7

Öz

Son yıllarda Türkiye ihtiyaçlarını karşılayabilmek adına elektrik üretimine yoğun bir şekilde dikkat vermektedir. Araştırmacılar elektrik üretim, tüketim ve talep miktarını doğru bir şekilde tahmin etmek için istatistik ve yapay zeka tabanlı yöntemleri de içeren birçok farklı metod uygulamışlardır. Sınırlı sayıda araştırmacı Türkiye’nin elektrik üretim tahminleme problemini bir zaman serisi analizi olarak irdelemiştir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada söz konusu problem zaman serileri analizi olarak ele alınmıştır. Bu açıdan çalışmada hem Destek Vektör Makineleri (DVM) ve Çok Katmanlı Nöronlar (ÇKN) gibi klasik makine öğrenimi yöntemleri hem de Uzun Kısa Dönemli Hafıza (UKDH) yöntemi gibi derin öğrenme yöntemi Türkiye’nin üretmesi gereken aylık elektrik üretim miktarını tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulgularına dayalı olarak derin öğrenme algoritması istatistiksel hata oranlarına göre diğer klasik makine öğrenimi yöntemlerinden daha başarılı sonuçlar vermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Makine öğrenimi, Derin öğrenme, UKDH, Zaman serileri

A Comparative Study of Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: A Case Study of Choosing the Best Prediction Model for Turkey Electricity Production

Öz

Over the last decades, Turkey pays special attention to electricity productionbto afford its needs. Researchers applied different methodologies including statisticalbased and artificial intelligence-based to correctly predict the future amount of electricity production, consumption, and demand. However,limited researchers focused on Turkey’s electricity production prediction problem as a time series analysis. For this reason, we tackle this problem by considering it as a time series analysis in this study. We have used different methods including traditional machine learning algorithms Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP) and a deep learning algorithm Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to create a better model for Turkey monthly electricity production dataset. Based on our findings LSTM outperforms SVR and MLP approaches in terms of commonly used statistical error evaluation metrics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Machine learning, Deep learning, LSTM, Time series

Kaynakça

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