Türkiye'nin Toplam Petrol Talebi ve Ulaştırma SektörüPetrol Talebinin Arıma Modeli İle Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Turkey's high growth rate in the last years resulted with significant increase in energy consumption. Policy makers should give critical decisions for meeting this growing energy demand. Forecasting of energy demand is one of the most important policy tools used by the decision makers. In this study, focused on forecasting of total petroleum demand and transport petroleum demand of Turkey from 2012 to 2020 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Turkey’s total and transport petroleum demand will increase to value of 30,58 mtep and 20,73 mtep by 2020, respectively

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Transport sector, Petroleum consumption, Demand forecasting, ARIMA modelling

TÜRKİYE'NİN TOPLAM PETROL TALEBİ VE ULAŞTIRMA SEKTÖRÜ PETROL TALEBİNİN ARIMA MODELİ İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ

Öz

Türkiye'nin son yıllardaki yüksek büyüme rakamları, enerji tüketiminin önemli ölçüde artması ile sonuçlanmıştır. Artan enerji talebinin karşılanması karar vericiler açısından önemli konulardan biridir. Enerji talebinin tahmin edilmesi, enerji stratejileri ve politikalarını belirleyen karar vericiler için önemli bir araç olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin toplam petrol talebi ve ulaştırma sektörü petrol talebi 2012-2020 dönemi için Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) modeli ile tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen tahmin değerlerine göre, 2020 yılında toplam petrol talebinin 30,58 mtep olması, ulaştırma sektörü petrol talebinin 20,73 mtep olması beklenmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ulaştırma sektörü, Petrol tüketimi, Talep tahmini, ARIMA modeli

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