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THE EFFECT OF MORTGAGE MARKET AND MONETARY POLICY ON HOUSING PRICES: AN APPLICATION ON TURKEY

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2, 455 - 466, 30.04.2018

Öz

Primary and secondary mortgage markets have an important place for capital markets. In these markets, mortgage rates on mortgage markets are affected by long-term interest rates and the central bank's spending and interest policies. As a result of this, changes in interest rates are changing the demand for real estate and its value. Especially, if the proposal of long term investments are adversely affected by high real interst rates in 1990s is admitted, the monetary and fiscal policy of 2000s; the inflation targeting strategy and reducing of the long term interest rates followed by the CBRT are increased the demand for real estate. These developments are affected real estate prices. In this study, the development of the mortgage market in terms of influencing the real estate prices and the effect of the CBRT monetary and interest policies on the real estate value have been investigated in Turkey. In the analysis section, Johansen cointegration test was used and Long term coefficient interpretations of the models were calculated by FMOLS, DOLS and CCR. According to findings; During 2007q1-2017q2 mortgage rates in Turkey are influenced by interest rates of the Central Bank and there is a positive relationship between these two variables. The response of housing prices to mortgage rates is negative.

Kaynakça

  • BASILE, A. and JOSEPH P. J., (2001). “Asset Bubble, Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in Japon: An Empirical Invastigation”, Applied Economics, Volume: 33, pp. 1737-1744.
  • BERNANKE, S. B., (2010). “Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble”, Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association Atlanta, Georgia.
  • BJØRNLAND H. C. ve JACOBSEN D. V., (2010). “The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Small Open Economies”, Journal of Financial Stability 6, pp.218–229.
  • BJØRNLAND H. C. ve JACOBSEN D. V., (2012). “House Prices and Stock Prices: Different roles in the U.S. Monetary Transmission Mechanism”, CAMP Working Paper Series, No: 1/2012.
  • BÜYÜKDUMAN, A. (2014). Bir Kent Efsanesi Konut Balonu, Scala Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • DEMARY, M. (2010). “The Interplay between Output, Inflation, Interest Rates and House Prices: International Evidence”, Journal of Property Research, 27(1), 1-17.
  • DOKKO, J., DOYLE, B.M., KİLEY M. T., KIM. J., SHERLUND, S., SIM J., ve HEUVEL, S. V. D., (2009). “Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble”, Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board.
  • GIULIODORI, M, (2004). “Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries”, DNB Working Paper, No: 015/2004. -1744.
  • JAROCIŃSKI, M. ve SMETS F., (2008). “House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy”, ECB Working Paper, No:891.
  • LEAMER, E. E., (2007). “Housing is the Business Cycle”, NBER Working Paper, No:13428.
  • NEGRO, M. D. ve OTROK, C., (2007). “99 Luftballons: Monetary Policy and the House Price Boom across U.S. States”, Journal of Monetary Economics, C.LIV, No:7, 2007, s.1962-1985.
  • McDONALD, J. F. ve STOKES, H. H., (2013). “Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates and the Housing Bubble”, Economics & Finance Research, Vol. 1, pp.82–91.
  • MCDONALD, J. F. ve STOKES, H. H., (2013). “Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates and the Housing Bubble”, Economics & Finance Research, Vol. 1, pp.82–91.
  • SILVA, C. V., (2008a), “The Effect of Monetary Policy On Housing: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach”, Applied Economics Letters, Volume: 15, pp.749-752.
  • SILVA, C. V., (2008b). “Monetary Policy and the US Housing Market: A VAR Analysis Imposing Sign Restrictions”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 30 (3), pp.977 - 990.

MORTGAGE PİYASASI VE PARA POLİTİKASININ KONUT FİYATLARINA ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2, 455 - 466, 30.04.2018

Öz

Birincil ve ikincil mortgage piyasaları sermaye piyasaları için önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu piyasalarda mortgage piyasalarında oluşan mortgage faizleri, uzun dönemli faizlerden ve merkez bankası para ve faiz politikalarından etkilenmektedir. Bunun sonucunda faizlerde meydana gelen değişmeler de gayrimenkul talebini ve değerini değiştirmektedir. 1990’lı yıllardaki yüksek reel faizlerin gayrimenkul gibi uzun vadeli yatırımları olumsuz etkilediği önermesi kabul edilirse, 2000’li yıllarda izlenen para ve maliye politikası; özelikle TCMB’nın izlediği enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisi ile uzun dönem faizlerin düşmesi gayrimenkul talebini arttırmıştır. Bu gelişmeler de gayrimenkul fiyatlarını etkilemiştir. Çalışmada gayrimenkul fiyatlarını etkileme açısından mortgage faizlerinin gelişimi, TCMB para ve faiz politikalarının gayrimenkul değerine olan etkisi Türkiye genelinde araştırılmıştır. Analiz kısmında, Johansen eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmış ve modellerin uzun dönem katsayı yorumları FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR tahmincileri hesaplanarak yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de 2007q1-2017q2 döneminde mortgage oranları TCMB faiz oranlarından etkilenmekte ve bu iki değişken arasında pozitif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Konut fiyatlarının mortgage oranlarına verdiği tepki ise negatif yönlüdür.

Kaynakça

  • BASILE, A. and JOSEPH P. J., (2001). “Asset Bubble, Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in Japon: An Empirical Invastigation”, Applied Economics, Volume: 33, pp. 1737-1744.
  • BERNANKE, S. B., (2010). “Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble”, Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association Atlanta, Georgia.
  • BJØRNLAND H. C. ve JACOBSEN D. V., (2010). “The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Small Open Economies”, Journal of Financial Stability 6, pp.218–229.
  • BJØRNLAND H. C. ve JACOBSEN D. V., (2012). “House Prices and Stock Prices: Different roles in the U.S. Monetary Transmission Mechanism”, CAMP Working Paper Series, No: 1/2012.
  • BÜYÜKDUMAN, A. (2014). Bir Kent Efsanesi Konut Balonu, Scala Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • DEMARY, M. (2010). “The Interplay between Output, Inflation, Interest Rates and House Prices: International Evidence”, Journal of Property Research, 27(1), 1-17.
  • DOKKO, J., DOYLE, B.M., KİLEY M. T., KIM. J., SHERLUND, S., SIM J., ve HEUVEL, S. V. D., (2009). “Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble”, Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board.
  • GIULIODORI, M, (2004). “Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries”, DNB Working Paper, No: 015/2004. -1744.
  • JAROCIŃSKI, M. ve SMETS F., (2008). “House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy”, ECB Working Paper, No:891.
  • LEAMER, E. E., (2007). “Housing is the Business Cycle”, NBER Working Paper, No:13428.
  • NEGRO, M. D. ve OTROK, C., (2007). “99 Luftballons: Monetary Policy and the House Price Boom across U.S. States”, Journal of Monetary Economics, C.LIV, No:7, 2007, s.1962-1985.
  • McDONALD, J. F. ve STOKES, H. H., (2013). “Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates and the Housing Bubble”, Economics & Finance Research, Vol. 1, pp.82–91.
  • MCDONALD, J. F. ve STOKES, H. H., (2013). “Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates and the Housing Bubble”, Economics & Finance Research, Vol. 1, pp.82–91.
  • SILVA, C. V., (2008a), “The Effect of Monetary Policy On Housing: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach”, Applied Economics Letters, Volume: 15, pp.749-752.
  • SILVA, C. V., (2008b). “Monetary Policy and the US Housing Market: A VAR Analysis Imposing Sign Restrictions”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 30 (3), pp.977 - 990.
Toplam 15 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Bahar İslamoğlu Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-7734-4747

Abdulkadir Buluş Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-3052-3086

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA İslamoğlu, B., & Buluş, A. (2018). MORTGAGE PİYASASI VE PARA POLİTİKASININ KONUT FİYATLARINA ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(2), 455-466.