Determination of Factors Affecting Wheat Production in Altınekin District by Risk Analysis

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 3, 496 - 501, 28.12.2018

Yasin Altay İsmail Keskın

Öz

In this study, it is aimed to determine minimum and maximum risk ranges of farmer and insurance in terms of natural risk factors affecting wheat yield in Altınekin district of Konya. Diseases and pests and other risk factors outside the scope of insurance were included in the linear model and the yield was estimated for all natural risks for wheat production at the district level. As natural risk factors, diseases and pests, frost, drought, hail, fire and other risks and interactions of factors were taken. In this study, 63 different linear models were formed by factor number and minimum and maximum risk intervals were determined by using simplex method of linear programming on yield and price basis. In the model with all risk factors and interactions, the expected risk value of the farmer was estimated to be 81.696 (kg×ha-1) – 90.029 (TL×ha-1) while it was estimated as 60.241 (kg×ha-1) – 66.385 (TL×ha-1) in terms of insurance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Risk Analysis , Wheat , Linear programming , Altınekin