The Triple Sustainability Dynamic in Türkiye's Agricultural Sector: Projections Until 2030 on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Water Intensity, and Economic Dynamics

Öz

This study aims to make predictions for the sustainability dynamics of Türkiye's agricultural sector until 2030, considering agricultural water use, greenhouse gas emissions, and agricultural economics from a three-pronged perspective. Predictions were made using data covering the years 1992-2022 based on greenhouse gas emissions and water intensity. Emissions were used in carbon equivalent (Mt CO2e), and water intensity in km³/billion USD. The analysis was conducted using the Prophet time series model across three scenarios. The scenarios were defined as Prophet estimate, international organization estimate, and linear decline. The relationships between variables were evaluated using correlation-based network analysis, and then regressive effects were tested using sensitivity analysis. Based on the findings, the international projections used in Scenario 2 (3.5%) showed that the share of agriculture in GDP would be 78.75 Mt CO2e in 2030. It was determined that this gave the most realistic value compared to the other two scenarios. The analysis findings also predicted that Türkiye's agricultural water intensity will decrease by 29.9% to 0.0379 km³/billion USD by 2030. Correlation analysis also revealed a strong positive correlation between water intensity and the share of agriculture, with a value of 0.87. Furthermore, it showed inverse relationships with greenhouse gas emissions, with values of -0.70 and -0.55, respectively. Subsequent sensitivity analysis confirmed that the impact of water intensity on the model is limited. The study, which offers a data-driven framework for Türkiye's agricultural policies, suggests focusing on drip irrigation, organic farming, and smart farming technologies as policy recommendations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Water Intensity
• Agricultural Economic Dynamics
• Sustainability

Türkiye Tarım Sektöründe Üçlü Sürdürülebilirlik Dinamiği: Sera Gazı Emisyonları, Su Yoğunluğu ve Ekonomik Dinamikler Üzerine 2030'a Kadar Projeksiyonlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, tarımsal su kullanımı, sera gazı emisyonları ve tarımsal ekonomi olmak üzere üç yönlü bir bakış açısıyla, Türkiye'nin tarım sektörünün 2030 yılına kadar olan sürdürülebilirlik dinamikleri için tahminlerde bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Tahminler, sera gazı emisyonları ve su yoğunluğuna dayalı olarak 1992-2022 yıllarını kapsayan veriler kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Emisyonlar karbon eşdeğeri (Mt CO2e) cinsinden, su yoğunluğu ise km³/milyar USD cinsinden kullanılmıştır. Analiz, üç senaryo üzerinden Prophet zaman serisi modeli kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Senaryolar, Prophet tahmini, uluslararası örgüt tahmini ve doğrusal düşüş olarak tanımlanmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler korelasyon tabanlı ağ analizi kullanılarak değerlendirilmiş, ardından duyarlılık analizi kullanılarak regresif etkiler test edilmiştir. Bulgulara göre, Senaryo 2'de (%3,5) kullanılan uluslararası projeksiyonlar, 2030 yılında tarımın GSYİH'deki payının 78,75 Mt CO2e olacağını göstermiştir. Bu değerin diğer iki senaryoya kıyasla en gerçekçi değer olduğu belirlenmiştir. Analiz bulguları ayrıca, Türkiye'nin tarımsal su yoğunluğunun 2030 yılına kadar %29,9 azalarak 0,0379 km³/milyar USD'ye düşeceğini öngörmüştür. Korelasyon analizi ayrıca, su yoğunluğu ile tarımın payı arasında 0,87 değerinde güçlü bir pozitif korelasyon olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca, sera gazı emisyonlarıyla sırasıyla -0,70 ve -0,55 değerlerinde ters ilişkiler göstermiştir. Sonraki duyarlılık analizi, su yoğunluğunun model üzerindeki etkisinin sınırlı olduğunu doğrulamıştır. Türkiye'nin tarım politikaları için veri odaklı bir çerçeve sunan çalışma, politika önerileri olarak damla sulama, organik tarım ve akıllı tarım teknolojilerine odaklanılmasını önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sera Gazı Salınımları
• Su Yoğunluğu
• Tarım Ekonomisi Dinamikleri
• Sürdürülebilirlik

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