Realist Güvenlik Anlayışının Yol Haritası: Offshore Dengeleme Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Afganistan’dan Çekilmesi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 1, 88 - 103, 30.04.2022

Kürşat Kan , Gizem Dede

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.1061248

Öz

Realist paradigmanın uluslararası ilişkilere dair varsayımları, politika, hukuk ve iktidar alanlarını etkilemiştir. Özellikle güvenlik ve özelinde devletin güvenlik alanlarında doktriner çalışmalar yapan realist teorisyenler, insan doğasının kötülüğü, iktidar mücadeleleri ve diğer pesimistik sistem açmazlarının okumalarını güvenlik üzerinden yapmışlardır. Sistemde zıttına aşina olduğumuz güvenlik, güvensizliğin içerisinden çıkmak çabasını da içermektedir. Moral konular üzerinden ziyade, güç, çıkar, anarşi üzerinden güvenlik nosyonunu irdeleyen realizm, rasyonel bir uluslararası politika bağlamında uluslararası ilişkiler sisteminin teorik kaygılarının zeminine oturmuş bu sayede de pratikte kendisine çalışma alanı bulmuştur. ABD’nin Afganistan’dan çıkışı realist güvenlik anlayışı çerçevesinde ele alınmıştır. Bu çalışmada realist bir argüman olan offshore dengeleme üzerinden ABD’nin Afganistan’dan çekilmesi değerlendirilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Realizm, Uluslararası Güvenlik, ABD, Afganistan, Offshore Dengeleme

Roadmap of Realist Security Approach: US Withdrawal from Afghanistan in the Framework of Offshore Balancing

Öz

The assumptions of the realist paradigm on international relations have affected the fields of politics, law, and power. Realist theorists, who have done doctrinal studies especially in the fields of security and the security of the state, have made the readings of the evil of human nature, power struggles and other pessimistic system dilemmas in terms of security. Security, the opposite of which we are familiar with in the system, includes the effort to get out of insecurity. Realism, which examines the notion of security not over moral issues, but through power, interest, and anarchy, has settled on the ground of the theoretical concerns of the international relations system in the context of a rational international policy, thus finding a field of study for itself in practice. The exit of the USA from Afghanistan has been evaluated within the framework of realist security understanding. Within this backdrop, this study will evaluate the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan through offshore balancing, which is a realistic argument from the perspective of realism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Realism, International Security, USA, Afghanistan, Offshore Balancing

Kaynakça

• Kaynakça Aljazeera. (2021, Ağustos 30). US Says Drone Kills Suicide Bombers Targeting Kabul Airport. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/29/afghanistan-explosion-near-kabul-airport adresinden alındı
• Arı, T. (1990). Morton Kaplan ve Uluslararası Politikada Sistem Yaklaşımı. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, XI(1-2), 103-118.
• Arı, T. (2009). Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Dış Politika. Bursa: Mkm.
• Arı, T. (2014). Uluslararası İlişkilerde Büyük Tartışmalar ve Post-Modern Teoriler. (der.) T. Arı, Postmodern Uluslararası İlişkiler Teorileri-2- Uluslararası İlişkilerde Eleştirel Yaklaşımlar (s. 1-47). içinde Bursa: Dora.
• Aron, R. (2017). Peace&War: A Theory International Relations. (çev.) D. J. Mahoney, B. C. Anderson, NY: Routledge. Ashley, R. (1984). The Poverty of Neorealism. International Organizastion, 38(2), 225-286.
• Bag, M. (2021, Eylül 19). ABD'den Afganistan'da drone saldırısı: Çam fıstığı toplayan 30 tarım işçisi öldü . Euronews: https://tr.euronews.com/2019/09/19/abd-den-afganistan-da-drone-saldirisi-cam-fistigi-toplayan-30-tarim-iscisi-oldu-iha adresinden alındı
• Bag, M. (2021, Eylül 3). Taliban: 'Güvenilir dost' Çin'in Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi'ni Aktif Olarak Destekleyeceğiz. Euronews: https://tr.euronews.com/2021/09/03/taliban-guvenilir-dost-cin-in-kusak-ve-yol-girisimi-ni-aktif-olarak-destekleyecegiz adresinden alındı
• Balcı, A., & Kardaş, T. (2014). Realizm. (ed.) Ş. Kardaş, A. Balcı. Uluslararası İlişkilere Giriş: Tarih, Teori, Kavram ve Konular (s. 119-134). içinde İstanbul: Küre Yayınları.
• Barnett, M. (1990). High Politics is Low Politics: The Domestic and Systemic Sources of Israeli Security Policy: 1967-1977. World Politics, 42(4), 529-562.
• Baylis, J. (2008). Uluslararası İlişkilerde Güvenlik Kavramı. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 5(18), 69-85.
• Beitz, C. R. (1999). Political Theory and International Relations: with a New Afterword by the Author. New Jersey: Pricenton University Press.
• Cordesman, A. H., & Hwang, G. (2021). Learning the Right Lessons from the Afghan War. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
• Covell, C. (2004). Hobbes, Realism and the Tradition of International Law. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Crawford, N. C., & Lutz, C. (2021). Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the U.S. War in Afghanistan. Brown University Watsons Intitue for International & Public Affairs.
• CRS Report. (2021). U.S. Military Withdrawal and Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan: Frequently Asked Questions. Congressional Research Service: Informing the Legislative Debate since 1914.
• Çalış, Ş., & Özlük, E. (2007). Uluslararası İlişkiler Tarihinin Yapısökümü: İdealizm-Realizm Tartışması. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi(17), 225-243.
• Detsch, J. (2021, Temmuz 30). How the U.S. Learned to Stop Worrying About the Pacific and Love the ‘Indo-Pacific’. Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/30/biden-pacific-china/ adresinden alındı
• Euronews. (2021, Temmuz 29). Çin: Taliban’ın Doğu Türkistan İslami Hareketi ile Mücadele Etmesini Umuyoruz. https://tr.euronews.com/2021/07/28/cin-d-sisleri-bakanl-g-taliban-n-dogu-turkistan-islami-hareketi-ile-mucadele-etmesini-umuy adresinden alındı
• Farms New Agency. (2021, Ekim 27). Russian FM Calls on Afghanistan's Neighbors to Prevent NATO Presence on Their Territory. https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14000805000432/Rssian-FM-Calls-n-Afghanisan%27s-Neighbrs-Preven-NATO-Presence-n-Their adresinden alındı
• Gellman, P. (1988). Hans J. Morgenthau and the Legacy Political Realism. Review of International Studies, 14(4), 247-266.
• Gilpin, R. (1981). War and Change in World Politics. NY: Cambridge University Press.
• Glaser, C. L. (1994-95). Realist as Optimists: Cooperation as Self-Help. International Security, 19(3), 50-90. Glaser, C. L. (1997). The Security Dilemma Revisited. World Politics, 50(1), 171-201.
• Glaser, C. L. (2010). Rational Theory of International Politics: The Logic of Competition and Cooperation. Oxford: Pricenton University Press.
• Goulard, S. (2021, Ağustos 21). Does the Belt and Road Have a Future in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan? The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/does-the-belt-and-road-have-a-future-in-taliban-ruled-afghanistan/ adresinden alındı
• Griffiths, M., Roach, S., & Solomon, M. (2009). Fifty Key Thinkers in International Relations 2. Edition. London: Routledge. Habertürk. (2020, Ekim 23). Ermeni askerleri söyledi: Karabağ Azerbaycan'dır. https://www.haberturk.com/son-dakika-azerbaycan-ermenistan-ermeni-askerleri-soyledi-karabag-azerbaycan-dir-haberler-2845008 adresinden alındı
• Haltiwanger, J. (2021, Eylül 2021). Top US General says War in Afghanistan is 'not over,' Despite Biden Repeatedly Saying It's Done. Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/top-general-says-afghanistan-war-not-over-despite-biden-claims-2021-9 adresinden alındı
• Herz, J. H. (1950). Political Ideas and Political Reality. The Western Political Quarterly, 3(2), 161-178.
• Hobbes, T. (1996). Leviathan. (ed.) R. Tuck , UK: Cambridge University Press.
• Hook, S. W., & Spainer, J. (2014). Amerikan Dış Politikası: İkinci Dünya Savaşı'ndan Günümüze (çev.) Ö. Zihinoğlu Tanırlı. İstanbul: İnkılap.
• Horness, P. (2015). Understanding Paradigms and Polarity in International Relations. 跡見学園女子大学人文学フォーラム(13), 144-155.
• Ikenberry, J. G., & Mastanduno, M. (2003). International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pasific. NY: Colombia University Press.
• International Crisis Group. (2021, Eylül 17). Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis fort he U.S. War on Terror. NY. Jackson, M., & Moore, T. (2006). Machiavelli's Walls: The Legacy of Realism in International Relations. International Politics, 53(4), 447-465.
• Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167-214.
• Jervis, R. (2003). Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation: Understanding the Debate. (ed.) C. Elman, M. F. Elman. Progress in International Relations Theory: Appraising the Field. içinde London: Mit Press.
• Kardaş, T. (2014). Güvenlik. (ed.)Ş. Kardaş, A. Balcı. Uluslararası İlişkiler Giriş: Tarih, Teori, Kavram ve Konular. içinde İstanbul: Küre Yayınları.
• Kinzer, S. (2021, Eylül 9). The limits of Biden’s Foreign-policy Conversion. Boston Globe: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/09/09/opinion/limits-bidens-foreign-policy-conversion/?p1=BGSearch_Overlay_Results adresinden alındı
• Knickmeyer, E. (2021, Ağustos 17). Costs of the Afghanistan War, in Lives and Dollars. Ap News: https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-business-afghanistan-43d8f53b35e80ec18c130cd683e1a38f adresinden alındı
• Layne, C. (1997). From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing: America’s Future Grand Strategy. International Security, 22(1), 86-124.
• Lee, G. G. (2002). To Be Long or Not to Be Long-That Is the Question: The Contradiction of Time- Horizon in Offensive Realism. Security Studies, 12(2), 196-217.
• Levy, J. S. (1989). Domestic Politics and War, (der.), R. I. Rotberg, T. K. Rabb. The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars. içinde Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Maslow, A. H. (1943). A Theory of Human Motivation. Psychological Review(50).
• McKinlay, R., & Little, R. (1977). A Foreign Policy Model of U.S. Bilateral Aid Allocation. World Politics, 30(1), 58-86.
• Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. London: W. W. Norton&Company.
• Mearsheimer, J. J. (2002). Realism the Real World and the Academy. Realism and Institutionalism in International Studies, 23-33.
• Mearsheimer, J. J. (2013). Structural Realism (der.)T. Dunne, M. Kurki; S. Smith. International Relations Theories: Dicipline and Diversity 3th Edition. içinde Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Mearsheimer, J. J., & Walt, S. M. (2016). The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy. Foreign Affairs, 95(4), 70-83.
• Miller, J. D. (1991). E. H. Carr: The Realist's Realist. The National Interest(25), 65-71.
• Morgenthau, H. (1948). Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. NY: Alfred A. Knopf.
• Mustafa, G., Ahmed, M., & Junaid, A. (2020). Role of China and Iran in Afghanistan Peace Process. Sir Syed Journal of Education & Social Research (SJESR), 424-432.
• NATO. (2010, 11 20). Lisbon Summit Decleration. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_68828.htm adresinden alındı
• Nexon, D. (2009). The Balance of Power in the Balance. World Politics, 61(2), 330-359. Noor, S. (2021). The Taliban’s Ascendance in Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 13(4), 14-18.
• Nye, J. S. (2011). The Future of Power. NY: Public Affairs.
• Örmeci, O., & Kısacık, S. (2018). Rusya Siyaseti ve Rus Dış Politikası: Teorik Çerçeve- Tarihsel Arka Plan- Örnek Olaylar. Ankara: Seçkin.
• Özlük, E. (2017). Dengeleme mi Peşine Takılmak mı?: Dış Politika Stratejilerini Yeniden Düşünmek. Gazi Akademik Bakış, 10(20), 221-263.
• Pantucci, R., & Basit, A. (2021). Post-Taliban Takeover. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 13(4), 1-7.
• Preece, J. J. (2011). Security in International Relations. London: LSE.
• Quester, G. H. (2005). The Bush Foreign Policy and The Good Society. The Good Society, 14(3), 15-21.
• Rose, G. (1998). Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51(1).
• Russett, B. (2013). Liberalism (der.) T. Dunne, M. Kurki; S. Smith. T. (der.)Dunne, M. Kurki, & S. Smith içinde, International Relations Theories: Dicipline and Diversity 3th Edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Schweller, R. L. (1994). Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back in. International Security, 19(1), 72-107.
• Schweller, R. L. (1998). Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler's Strategy of World Conquest. NY: Colombia University Press.
• Schweller, R. L. (2004). Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing. International Security, 29(2), 159-201.
• Singer, D. J. (2006). Uluslararası İlişkilerde Analiz Düzeyi Meselesi. Uluslararası İlişkiler, 3(11), 3-24.
• Smith, S. (1995). The Self-Images of a Discipline: A Genealogy of International Relations Theory (ed.) K. Booth, S. Smith. International Relations Theory Today (s. 1-37). içinde Cambridge: Polity Press.
• Snyder, G. H. (1984). The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics. World Politics, 36(461-495).
• Snyder, G. H. (2002). Mearsheimer's World- Offensive Realism and the Struggle for Security: A Review Essay. International Security, 27(1), 149-173.
• Snyder, J. (1991). Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. (ed.)R. J. Art, R. Jervis; S. M. Walt, Ithaca: Cornell University.
• Spindler, M. (2013). International Relations: A Self-Study Guide to Theory. Berlin: Barbara Budrich.
• Şeyhanlıoğlu, H. (2021, Haziran 24). Afghanistan and Turkey between US, China and Oil Companies. Foreign Policy Instıtute: https://foreignpolicy.org.tr/afghanistan-and-turkey-between-us-china-and-oil-companies/ adresinden alındı
• Taliaferro, J. (2000). Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited. International Security, 25(3), 128-161.
• Tamer, C. (2021, Eylül 29). ABD’nin Çin Stratejisinde Pakistan-Hindistan İkilemi. ANKASAM: https://www.ankasam.org/abdnin-cin-stratejisinde-pakistan-hindistan-ikilemi/ adresinden alındı
• Toft, P. (2005). John J. Mearsheimer: An Offensive Realist between Geopolitics and Power. Journal of International Relations and Development, 8, 381-408.
• Vasquez, J. (2003). Kuhn versus Lakatoz? The Case for Multiple Frames in Appraising Internatonal Relations Theory. C. (ed.)Elman, & M. F. Elman içinde, Progress in International Relations Theory: Appraising the Field. London: Mit Press.
• Viotti, P. R., & Kauppi, M. (2012). International Relations Theory, 5th Edition. Boston: Longman.
• Walt, S. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3-43.
• Walt, S. M. (2020). Offshore Balancing in Populist Times. Horizons: Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development(15), 70-93.
• Waltz, K. N. (1967). International Structure, National Force and the Balance of World Power. Journal of International Affairs, 21(2), 215-231.
• Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. California: Adison-Wesley Publishing.
• Waltz, K. N. (1997). Thoughts About Virtual Nuclear Arsenals. The Washington Quarterly, 20(3), 153-161.
• Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural Realism after the Cold War. International Security, 25(1), 5-41.
• Waltz, K. N. (2001). Man the State and War: A Theoretical Analysis. NY: Colombia University Press.
• Waltz, K. N., & Quester, G. H. (1982). Uluslararası İlişkiler Kuramı ve Dünya Sistemi. çev. Ersin Onulduran, Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Yayınları.
• ,Wight, M. (1978). Power Politics. (H. Bull, & C. Holbraad, Dü) NY: Holmes&Meier Publishers.
• Yordán, C. L. (2006). America's Quest for Global Hegemony: "Offensive Realism, the Bush Doctrine, and the 2003 Iraq War". A Journal of Social and Political Theory, 53(110), 125-157.