DETERMINANTS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN NIGER REPUBLIC: SOME EVIDENCE FROM NONLINEAR COINTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Öz

This study investigates the causal relationships between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, Exchange Rate (ER), Globalization (GI), Urbanization (UP), Carbon Dioxide emissions (CO2), and consumer price index (CPI). The nonlinear cointegration and error correction model (ECM) of Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell (2006) was used to investigate the short-run and long run relationships between inflation and the above-mentioned variables during the 1990-2019s in the Republic of Niger. The results of nonlinear cointegration showed the existence of a cointegration relationship between CPI, GDP, GI, UP and CO2 and those of the error correction model revealed the existence of a relationship between UP and CPI. In addition, the results of Linear Granger causality tests showed bidirectional causal linkages running from CPI to CO2 and from CO2 to CPI, causal linkage running from CPI to GI, and a unidirectional causal linkage running from GDP to CPI. Consequently, the study ends up with some recommendations for the policy and decision-makers to increase the welfare of the country.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Consumer Price Index
• GDP
• Globalization
• KSS (2006) Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis
• Error Correction Model

Nijer Cumhuriyetinde Tüketici Fiyat Endeksinin Belirleyicileri: Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme ve Hata Düzeltme Modelinden Bazı Bulgular

Öz

Bu çalışmada, kişi başına Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH), Döviz Kuru (ER), Küreselleşme (GI), Kentleşme (UP) ve Karbon Dioksit emisyonu (CO2) ile tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmektedir. Bu çerçevede Nijer Cumhuriyeti için 1990-2019 tarih aralığındaki yıllık verilerden yararlanarak Kapetanios, Shin ve Snell'in (2006) doğrusal olmayan eş bütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modeli (ECM) temelinde enflasyou etkileyen faktörler araştrılmaktadır. Doğrusal olmayan eş bütünleşme sonuçları, TÜFE, GSYİH, GI, UP ve CO2 arasında bir eş bütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını gösterirken, hata düzeltme modeli sonuçları, UP ile TÜFE arasında bir ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, doğrusal Granger nedensellik testi sonuçları, TÜFE'den CO2'ye ve CO2'den TÜFE'ye çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını yansıtırken, TÜFE'den GI'ya ve GSYİH'dan TÜFE'ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak çalışma, ülke refahını artırmak için politika yapıcılara ve ekonomik karar vericilere bazı öneriler sunarak son bulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi
• GSYİH
• Küreselleşme
• KSS (2006) Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Analizi
• Hata Düzeltme Modeli

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