Dağlık Karabağ Çatışmasındaki Yaptırım Mantığı ve Etkileri Üzerine Analitik Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Uluslararası aktörlerin savaşlarda ve çatışmalardaki rolü son yıllarda dikkat çekmektedir. Konuya ilişkin yapılan çalışmalarda savaşları önlemek ya da onları sonlandırmak için neler yapılabileceği konusuna özel bir önem verilmiştir. Kullanılan araçlar çatışmaya ve ülkeye göre farklılık göstermektedir. Haiti ve Kongo vakalarında olduğu gibi uluslararası aktörler bazen çatışmalara doğrudan müdahale etmektedirler. Diğer çatışmalarda, uluslararası aktörler ekonomik yaptırımlar gibi diğer araçlara başvurmaktadırlar. Bu çalışmada, uluslararası aktörlerin tek taraflı kuvvet kullanımı üzerindeki etkisini ortaya koymaktır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada, Dağlık Karabağ çatışmasındaki girişimleri nedeniyle önem arz eden Birleşmiş Milletler ile Avrupa Güvenlik ve İşbirliği Teşkilatı’nın kararları, çözümleri, önerileri ve önlemleri çatışmanın seyrine eklenerek üçüncü tarafların girişimlerinin çatışmada kullanılmakta olan şiddet eylemleri üzerinde nasıl bir etkisi olduğu zaman serisi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda, aktörlerin girişimlerinin çatışmada başvurulan tek taraflı kuvvet kullanımı eylemi üzerinde etkisiz kaldığı ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Birleşmiş Milletler, Avrupa Güvenlik ve İşbirliği Teşkilatı, Yaptırım, Arabuluculuk, Zaman Serisi Analiz

An Analytical Assessment on Sanction Logic and its Impact on the Conflict of Nagorno Karabakh

Öz

The role of international actors in war and conflict has received a lot of attention in recent years. Special attention has focused on what they can do to prevent wars or bring them to an end. The instruments implemented differ by conflict and country. Occasionally, as was the case in Haiti or Congo, international actors directly intervene in the conflict. In other conflicts, international actors have relied on other tools, such as economic sanctions. The logic that plays a key role in this research study concerns the influence of international actors. By reason of their initiative the resolutions, decisions, and measures of United Nations and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the actions of third parties are integrated into the time series analysis to evaluate one-sided violence used by the conflict parties for the case study Nagorno Karabakh. As a result of analysis, it was revealed that the actors' initiatives were ineffective on one-sided violence against civilians used by the conflict parties.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• United Nations, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Sanction, Mediation, Time Series Analysis

Kaynakça

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