Asimetrik Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Döviz kurlarında meydana gelen değişimlerin ithal edilen malların fiyatlarına etkisi döviz kuru geçişkenliği olarak ifade edilmektedir. Döviz kuru dalgalanmaları enflasyon başta olmak üzere birçok makroekonomik değişkeni etkileyen önemli bir faktördür. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de ithalat fiyatlarına döviz kuru geçişkenliği 2002 Ocak ile 2016 Şubat dönemi için eşbütünleşme ve vektör hata düzeltme modelleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgulara göre; Türkiye’de döviz kurlarındaki değişimler ithal mallarının fiyatlarına yansımakta ancak geçişkenlik asimetrik bir ilişki göstermemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği, Asimetri, Vektör Hata Düzeltme

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Turkey

Öz

The effect of changes in exchange rates on the prices of imported goods is expressed as the exchange rate pass-through. Exchange rate fluctuations are an important factor affecting many macroeconomic variables, such as inflation. In this study, exchange rate pass-through to import prices in Turkey was investigated using cointegration and vector error correction models for the period 2002 January to 2016 February. According to the findings obtained in the study; changes in exchange rates in Turkey are reflected in the prices of imported goods, but pass-through does not show an asymmetrical relationship.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Asymmetry, Vector Error Correction

Kaynakça

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