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Türkiye’de Hane Halkları Elektrik Talebininin Belirleyicileri: Sıralı Logit Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 3, 1 - 20, 01.07.2014

Bülent Güloğlu Emre Akın

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de hane halklarının elektrik enerjisi tüketimini etkileyen faktörler araştırılmıştır. Hanenin anket ayındaki elektrik fatura giderinin, hane halkına ait konut özelliklerinin, hane halkı yapısının ve gelirinin elektrik talebini belirleyen etkenler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca bahsedilen bu etkenlerin marjinal etkileri hesaplanmıştır. Çalışmada TUİK tarafından yayınlanan Türkiye Hane Halkı Bütçe Anketi 2008 verileri kullanılmış ve sıralı logit modeli uygulanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hane Halkı Tüketimi Elektrik Talebi Sıralı Logit Tahmini

Kaynakça

  • AKIN E(2010) Hanehalkları Elektrik Talebi Basılmmaış Yüksek Lisans
  • Tezi, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Denizli. APERGIS N. ve PAYNE J.(2011) Edynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity,consumption-growth nexus, Energy Economics, 3, 770-781
  • ANDERSON, B.ve DAMSGAARD, N.; (1999), “Residential Electricity
  • Use-Demand Estimation Using Swedish Micro Data”, Paper Presented at the 22nd Annual İnternational Conference, Haziran , Roma. CIARRETA, A., ZARRAGA, A., 2010. Economic growth–electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: a dynamic panel data approach. Energy Policy 38, 3790–3796
  • ERDOĞDU, E.; (2007), “Electricity Demand Analysis Using Cointegration and ARMA Modelling: A Case Study of Turkey”, Energy Policy, , ss. 1129-1146.
  • FILIPPINI, M. ve PACHAURI, S.; (2004), “Elasticities of electricity demand in urban Indian households”, Energy Policy, No:32, pp.429–
  • FISHER, F. M., KAYSEN, C. A. (1962). A Study in Econometrics: The Demand for Electricity in United States, Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Co.
  • FU, V.; (1998), “Estimating Generalized Ordered Logit Models”, Stata
  • Technical Bulletin 44, 27-30, İn Stata Technical Bulletin Reprints, Vol.8, 160-164, Stata Press, Collage Station, TX. FUKS, M. ve SALAZAR, E.; (2008), “Applying models for ordinal logistic regression to the analysis of household electricity consumption classes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil”, Energy Economics, Vol.30, pp. 1692, Science Direct.
  • FUNG, A., AYDINALP, M. ve UĞURSAL, V.; (1999), “Econometric models for Major Residential Energy and Uses”, Working Paper, CREEDAC- Nisan 1999.
  • HALICIOĞLU, F.; (2007), “Residential Electricity Demand Dynamics in
  • Turkey”, Energy Economics, 2 (29), ss.199-210. HALVORSEN, B. ve LARSEN, B.; (1999), “Factors Determining the Growth in Residential Electricity Consumption”, Economic Survey, p.3.
  • HAWDON, D.; (1992), “Energy Demand-Evidence and Expectations”
  • Surrey University Press, London. HOLTEDAHL, P., JOUTZ, F.L. (2004). Residential electricity demand in
  • Taiwan, EnergyEconomics, No:26, pp. 201–224. HOUTHAKKER (1951) Some Calculations of Electricity Consumption in
  • GreatBritain, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 114, Part III, pp.249-270. JUNG, T.Y.; (1993), “Ordered Logit for residential electricity demand in
  • Korea”, Energy Economics 15 (3), 205-209. KARAGÖL E. , ERBAYKAL E. VE ERTUĞRUL H. M. (2007) Türkiye’de
  • Ekonomik Büyüme İle Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8, 72-80. LEE, R.S., SINGH, N. (1994). Patterns in Residential Gas and Electricity
  • Consumption:An Econometric Analysis, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 12, No.2, pp.233-241, American Statistical Association. LENZEN, M., DEY, C. ve FORAN, B.; (2004), “Energy requirements of
  • Sydney households”, Ecological Economics, No:49, pp.375– 399. LIU, I. ve AGRESTI, A.; (2005), “The Analysis of Ordered Categorical
  • Data: An Overview and A Survey of Recent Devolopments”, TEST (1), 1-73. LOUW, K., CONRADIE, B., HOWELLS M., DEKENAH, M. (2008).
  • Determinants of electricity income African households, Energy Policy No:36, pp.2812-2818. demand for newly electrified low
  • MCCULLAGH, P.; (1980), “Regression Models for Ordinal Data (with discussion)”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 42 (2), 109-142.
  • NESBAKKEN, R.; (1999), “Price sensitivity of Residential Energy
  • Consumption in Norway”, Energy Economics, No.21 (6), pp. 493- ÖZER, H.; (2004), Nitel Değişkenli Ekonometrik Modeller: Teori ve Bir
  • Uygulama, Nobel Yayın Dağıtım, Ankara. PETERSON, B. ve HARREL, Jr. F.R.; (1990), “Partial Proportional Odds
  • Models for Ordinal Responce Variables”, Applied Statistics 39 (2), 217. VAAGE, N.; (2000), “Heating Technology and Energy Use: A Discrete
  • Continious Choice Approach to Norwegian Household Energy Demand”, Energy Economics, No.22, pp.649-666. WESTLEY, G.D.; (1992), “New Directions of Econometric Modelling of
  • Energy Demand: With Applications to Latin America”, İnter- American Devolopment Bank, Aralık, Washington. WILLIAMS, R.; (2006a), “Generalized Ordered Logit/Partial Proportional
  • Odds Models For Ordinal Dependent Variables”, The Stata Journal, Vol.6(1), 58-82. WILLIAMS, R.; (2006b), “Review of Regressions for Categorical
  • Dependent Variables Using Stata”, Second Ed., by Long and Freese in Stata Journal, vol.6, No:2, 273-278. YOO, H. S.; (2005), “Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth
  • Evidence from Korea”, Energy Policy, No.33, pp.1627-1632.
  • YOO, H.S., LEE, J.S. ve KWAK J.S.; (2007), “Estimation of residential electricity demand function in Seoul by correction for sample selection bias”, Energy Policy, No:35, pp.5702–5707.
  • Ek-2 : Sınıf 1 x 2-4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı Elektrik Tüketimi Coef. Prob rgelir 2460906 KON_ALAN 1756351 000 KONUTTIP MULKIYET 2075436 HHB 1705788 000 KIRKNTKD 4617754 YAS 0320065 004 OTUR_SUR .1502913 006 DOG_GAZ 1640883 065 SAUNA 333048 018 SICAKSU 2360211 002 BILGISAY TELEVIZ LCDTELE UYDUANT 13073 BUZDOLAB DERINDON BULASIK M_FIRIN 2637473 CAMASIR 3136055 KLIMA _cons 2.515531
  • Ek 3. Sınıf 1-2 x 3-4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı elektrik Coef. P>z rgelir 15261 000 KON_ALAN 1756351 000 KONUTTIP 1394829 026 MULKIYET 2075436 000 HHB 1705788 KIRKNTKD 4617754 000 YAS 0320065 004 OTUR_SUR .1502913 DOG_GAZ .2109745 004 SAUNA 333048 SICAKSU 2360211 002 BILGISAY 4187124 TELEVIZ 0970148 021 LCDTELE 3382304 001 UYDUANT 13073 005 BUZDOLAB 4796257 005 DERINDON 5442754 000 BULASIK 3353438 000 M_FIRIN 2637473 CAMASIR 3136055 006 KLIMA _cons 4.500163
  • Ek 4. Sınıf 1-3 x 4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı elektrik Coef. P>z rgelir KON_ALAN KONUTTIP MULKIYET 2075436 HHB KIRKNTKD YAS OTUR_SUR .1502913 DOG_GAZ .9103203 SAUNA SICAKSU 2360211 BILGISAY 0949597 383 TELEVIZ 0970148 021 LCDTELE 3382304 001 UYDUANT 13073 005 BUZDOLAB 4796257 005 DERINDON 5442754 000 BULASIK 3353438 000 M_FIRIN 2637473 002 CAMASIR 3136055 006 KLIMA 4334744 _cons 6.61258 000

Determinants of the Household Electricity Demand in Turkey: Ordered Logit Approach

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 3, 1 - 20, 01.07.2014

Bülent Güloğlu Emre Akın

Öz

In this study, the factors effecting the electricity consumption of households in Turkey are examined. Monthly electricity cost of the household, characteristics of the house, the structure of the household and its income are identified to be the factors that determine the demand for the electricity. Moreover, marginal effects of those mentioned factors are calculated. In the study, Turkish Household Budget Survey 2008 data published by Turkish Statistics Institute are used, and ordered logit model is employed

Anahtar Kelimeler

Household Consumption Electricity Demand Ordered Logit Estimation

Kaynakça

  • AKIN E(2010) Hanehalkları Elektrik Talebi Basılmmaış Yüksek Lisans
  • Tezi, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Denizli. APERGIS N. ve PAYNE J.(2011) Edynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity,consumption-growth nexus, Energy Economics, 3, 770-781
  • ANDERSON, B.ve DAMSGAARD, N.; (1999), “Residential Electricity
  • Use-Demand Estimation Using Swedish Micro Data”, Paper Presented at the 22nd Annual İnternational Conference, Haziran , Roma. CIARRETA, A., ZARRAGA, A., 2010. Economic growth–electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: a dynamic panel data approach. Energy Policy 38, 3790–3796
  • ERDOĞDU, E.; (2007), “Electricity Demand Analysis Using Cointegration and ARMA Modelling: A Case Study of Turkey”, Energy Policy, , ss. 1129-1146.
  • FILIPPINI, M. ve PACHAURI, S.; (2004), “Elasticities of electricity demand in urban Indian households”, Energy Policy, No:32, pp.429–
  • FISHER, F. M., KAYSEN, C. A. (1962). A Study in Econometrics: The Demand for Electricity in United States, Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Co.
  • FU, V.; (1998), “Estimating Generalized Ordered Logit Models”, Stata
  • Technical Bulletin 44, 27-30, İn Stata Technical Bulletin Reprints, Vol.8, 160-164, Stata Press, Collage Station, TX. FUKS, M. ve SALAZAR, E.; (2008), “Applying models for ordinal logistic regression to the analysis of household electricity consumption classes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil”, Energy Economics, Vol.30, pp. 1692, Science Direct.
  • FUNG, A., AYDINALP, M. ve UĞURSAL, V.; (1999), “Econometric models for Major Residential Energy and Uses”, Working Paper, CREEDAC- Nisan 1999.
  • HALICIOĞLU, F.; (2007), “Residential Electricity Demand Dynamics in
  • Turkey”, Energy Economics, 2 (29), ss.199-210. HALVORSEN, B. ve LARSEN, B.; (1999), “Factors Determining the Growth in Residential Electricity Consumption”, Economic Survey, p.3.
  • HAWDON, D.; (1992), “Energy Demand-Evidence and Expectations”
  • Surrey University Press, London. HOLTEDAHL, P., JOUTZ, F.L. (2004). Residential electricity demand in
  • Taiwan, EnergyEconomics, No:26, pp. 201–224. HOUTHAKKER (1951) Some Calculations of Electricity Consumption in
  • GreatBritain, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 114, Part III, pp.249-270. JUNG, T.Y.; (1993), “Ordered Logit for residential electricity demand in
  • Korea”, Energy Economics 15 (3), 205-209. KARAGÖL E. , ERBAYKAL E. VE ERTUĞRUL H. M. (2007) Türkiye’de
  • Ekonomik Büyüme İle Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8, 72-80. LEE, R.S., SINGH, N. (1994). Patterns in Residential Gas and Electricity
  • Consumption:An Econometric Analysis, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 12, No.2, pp.233-241, American Statistical Association. LENZEN, M., DEY, C. ve FORAN, B.; (2004), “Energy requirements of
  • Sydney households”, Ecological Economics, No:49, pp.375– 399. LIU, I. ve AGRESTI, A.; (2005), “The Analysis of Ordered Categorical
  • Data: An Overview and A Survey of Recent Devolopments”, TEST (1), 1-73. LOUW, K., CONRADIE, B., HOWELLS M., DEKENAH, M. (2008).
  • Determinants of electricity income African households, Energy Policy No:36, pp.2812-2818. demand for newly electrified low
  • MCCULLAGH, P.; (1980), “Regression Models for Ordinal Data (with discussion)”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 42 (2), 109-142.
  • NESBAKKEN, R.; (1999), “Price sensitivity of Residential Energy
  • Consumption in Norway”, Energy Economics, No.21 (6), pp. 493- ÖZER, H.; (2004), Nitel Değişkenli Ekonometrik Modeller: Teori ve Bir
  • Uygulama, Nobel Yayın Dağıtım, Ankara. PETERSON, B. ve HARREL, Jr. F.R.; (1990), “Partial Proportional Odds
  • Models for Ordinal Responce Variables”, Applied Statistics 39 (2), 217. VAAGE, N.; (2000), “Heating Technology and Energy Use: A Discrete
  • Continious Choice Approach to Norwegian Household Energy Demand”, Energy Economics, No.22, pp.649-666. WESTLEY, G.D.; (1992), “New Directions of Econometric Modelling of
  • Energy Demand: With Applications to Latin America”, İnter- American Devolopment Bank, Aralık, Washington. WILLIAMS, R.; (2006a), “Generalized Ordered Logit/Partial Proportional
  • Odds Models For Ordinal Dependent Variables”, The Stata Journal, Vol.6(1), 58-82. WILLIAMS, R.; (2006b), “Review of Regressions for Categorical
  • Dependent Variables Using Stata”, Second Ed., by Long and Freese in Stata Journal, vol.6, No:2, 273-278. YOO, H. S.; (2005), “Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth
  • Evidence from Korea”, Energy Policy, No.33, pp.1627-1632.
  • YOO, H.S., LEE, J.S. ve KWAK J.S.; (2007), “Estimation of residential electricity demand function in Seoul by correction for sample selection bias”, Energy Policy, No:35, pp.5702–5707.
  • Ek-2 : Sınıf 1 x 2-4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı Elektrik Tüketimi Coef. Prob rgelir 2460906 KON_ALAN 1756351 000 KONUTTIP MULKIYET 2075436 HHB 1705788 000 KIRKNTKD 4617754 YAS 0320065 004 OTUR_SUR .1502913 006 DOG_GAZ 1640883 065 SAUNA 333048 018 SICAKSU 2360211 002 BILGISAY TELEVIZ LCDTELE UYDUANT 13073 BUZDOLAB DERINDON BULASIK M_FIRIN 2637473 CAMASIR 3136055 KLIMA _cons 2.515531
  • Ek 3. Sınıf 1-2 x 3-4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı elektrik Coef. P>z rgelir 15261 000 KON_ALAN 1756351 000 KONUTTIP 1394829 026 MULKIYET 2075436 000 HHB 1705788 KIRKNTKD 4617754 000 YAS 0320065 004 OTUR_SUR .1502913 DOG_GAZ .2109745 004 SAUNA 333048 SICAKSU 2360211 002 BILGISAY 4187124 TELEVIZ 0970148 021 LCDTELE 3382304 001 UYDUANT 13073 005 BUZDOLAB 4796257 005 DERINDON 5442754 000 BULASIK 3353438 000 M_FIRIN 2637473 CAMASIR 3136055 006 KLIMA _cons 4.500163
  • Ek 4. Sınıf 1-3 x 4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı elektrik Coef. P>z rgelir KON_ALAN KONUTTIP MULKIYET 2075436 HHB KIRKNTKD YAS OTUR_SUR .1502913 DOG_GAZ .9103203 SAUNA SICAKSU 2360211 BILGISAY 0949597 383 TELEVIZ 0970148 021 LCDTELE 3382304 001 UYDUANT 13073 005 BUZDOLAB 4796257 005 DERINDON 5442754 000 BULASIK 3353438 000 M_FIRIN 2637473 002 CAMASIR 3136055 006 KLIMA 4334744 _cons 6.61258 000
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Bülent Güloğlu Bu kişi benim

Emre Akın Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014 Cilt: 2 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

ISNAD Güloğlu, Bülent - Akın, Emre. “Türkiye’de Hane Halkları Elektrik Talebininin Belirleyicileri: Sıralı Logit Yaklaşımı”. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 2/3 (Temmuz 2014), 1-20.

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