Türkiye’nin Euro Bölgesi’ne Uyumu: Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 4, 15 - 42, 01.10.2013

Ragıp Yılmaz

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin Euro Bölgesi’ne girmesi ya da girmemesi gerekliliğini geleneksel panel veri modellerini kullanarak çözmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmanın temel sorusu, Türkiye Avrupa Parasal Birliği’ne girmeli mi girmemeli mi şeklinde formüle edilebilir. Sorunun çözümü için endüstri-içi ticaret ve sendikalaşma temel değişkenler; şehirleşme ve kamu borcu ise kontrol değişkenleri olarak alınmıştır. Bu verilere ilişkin olarak 1995-2010 yılları arasında Grubel-Lloyd Endeksi, sendika üye sayıları; şehirlerde yaşayan nüfus ve kamu borç miktarı verileri baz alınarak panel veri analizi uygulanmış ve söz konusu değişkenlerin reel GSYİH üzerindeki etkisi test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, şehirleşme dışında, endüstri-içi ticaret, sendikalaşma ve kamu borçları açısından Türkiye’nin Euro Bölgesi’ne üye olmasını destekler niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Optimum Para Sahalar, Euro Bölgesi, Uyum, Panel Veri

Turkey’s Adjustment To Euro Area: Panel Data Analysis

Öz

This study intends to solve the necessity whether Turkey will become a membership of Euro Area by making use of traditional panel data models. The problem with such question can be stated if Turkey becomes a membership of Euro Area or not. In order to solve the problem, intra-industry trade and trade unionization are selected as main variables; urbanization and government debt are selected as control variables. Related to these variables, panel data analysis based on Grubel-Lloyd Index, number of trade union member, urban population and amount of the public debt is analyzed and effect of these variables are tested on real GDP. The findings obtained support Turkey’s membership of Euro Area in terms of intra-industry trade, unionization and government debt except urbanization

Anahtar Kelimeler

Optimum Currency Areas, Euro Area, Adjustment, Panel Data

Kaynakça

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