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Enflasyonun Tarımsal Fiyatlar Üzerindeki Etkileri: Panel Yumuşak Geçiş Regresyon Analizi

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 1 - 20, 01.01.2013

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, enflasyon oranının tarımsal fiyatlar üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektir. Bu çerçevede geliştirilen ampirik model, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için 1980–2007 dönemi verileri kullanılarak, panel yumuşak geçiş regresyon yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, enflasyonun tarımsal fiyatlar üzerindeki etkisinin düşük enflasyon dönemlerinde pozitif, yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde negatif olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla, enflasyonun tarımsal fiyatlar üzerindeki etkisinin düşük enflasyon oranlarının gözlendiği gelişmiş ülkelerde pozitif, yüksek enflasyon oranlarının gözlendiği gelişmekte olan ülkelerde negatif olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Bu bulgular, enflasyon oranı ile tarımsal fiyatlar arasındaki ilişkinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde maliyet-fiyat sıkıştırmasına yol açtığı yönünde kanıtlar sağlamakta ve hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde uygulanan tarımsal fiyat istikrarı politikaları açısından önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Apergis, N., Reziti, A. (2003), “Mean Spillover Effects in Agricultural Prices: The Case of Greece”, Agribusiness 19(4), s. 425-437.
  • Ardeni, P. G., Freebairn, J. (2002), “The Macroeconomics of Agriculture”, Handbook of Agricultural Economics 2, s. 1455-1485.
  • Colletaz, G., Hurlin, C. (2006), “Threshold Effects of the Public Capital Productivity: An International Panel Smooth Transition Approach”, HAL Working Paper Series, No.2006-01, http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/05 /56/ 66/PDF /dr 2006_01 colletaz_ hurlin.pdf, 28.08.2009.
  • Fouquau, J., Hurlin, C., Rabaud, I. (2008), “The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach”, Economic Modelling 25, s. 284–299.
  • Furlong, F., Ingenito, R. (1996), “Commodity Prices and Inflation”, FRBSF Economic Review 2, s. 27-47.
  • Gonzalez, A., Terasvirta, T., van Dijk, D. (2005), “Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model and an Application to Investment Under Credit Constraint”, Working Paper in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics, Vol. 64.
  • Grennes, T., Lapp, J.S. (1986), “Neutrality of Inflation in the Agricultural Sector”, Journal of International Money and Finance 5, s. 231-243.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1999), “Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing and Inference”, Journal of Econometrics 93, s. 345-368.
  • Kyrtsou, C. (2007), “Nonlinear Features of Comovements Between Commodity Prices and Inflation”, Fstschrift Smposium for Wlter C. Labys, Agricultural and Resource Economics, May 7, 2007, West Virginia University, USA, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=996000, 11.10.2008.
  • Kyrtsou, C., Labys, W. C. (2006), “Evidence for Chaotic Dependence between US Inflation and Commodity Prices”, Journal of Macroeconomics 28, s. 256–266.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Şaban (2010), Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma, Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kayseri.
  • OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development) (2009), Agricultural Polices in OECD Countries: Monitoring and Evaluation 2009, OECD Publishing, Rome.
  • Reziti, I. (2005), “The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Relative Price Variability in Greek Agriculture”, International Advances in Economic Research 11, s. 111–119.
  • Starleaf, D. R., Meyers, W. H., Womack, A. W. (1985), “The Impact of Inflation on the Real Income of U.S. Farmers”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 67(2), s. 384-389
  • Tabakis, N. M. (2001), “A Multivariate Model for the Relationship between Agricultural Prices and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence Using Greek Data”, Agricultural Economics Review 2(1), s. 28-38.
  • Terasvirta, T. and Anderson H.M., (1992), “Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics 7, s. 119–S136
  • Terasvirta, T., Tjostheim D. and Granger C.W.J., (1994), Modelling Non- linear Economic Time Series, Oxford University Press, USA.
  • Tweeten, L. G. (1980), “An Economic Investigation into Inflation Pass- through to the Farm Sector”, Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 5, s. 89-106.
  • Voyiatsiz, A., Pallis, D., Katsouli, E. (2002), “Causality between Food Prices and Other Goods Prices: Evidence from the EU-member States, Agricultural Economics Review 3(2), s. 61-70.
  • Zanias, G. P. (1998), “Inflation, Agricultural Prices and Economic Convergence in Greece”, European Review of Agricultural Economics 25, s. 29-39.

Impacts of Inflation on Agricultural Prices: Panel Smooth Transition Regression Analysis

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 1 - 20, 01.01.2013

Öz

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of inflation on agricultural prices. The empirical model developed in that respect was estimated for a panel of twenty eight developed and eighty three developing countries over the period 1980-2007 using panel smooth transition regression technique. The findings indicate that the impact of inflation on the agricultural prices is positive in low inflation regime and is negative in high inflation regime. Therefore, we conclude that the impact of the inflation on the agriculture prices is positive in the developed countries in which low inflation rates are observed and is negative in the developing countries in which high inflation rates are observed

Kaynakça

  • Apergis, N., Reziti, A. (2003), “Mean Spillover Effects in Agricultural Prices: The Case of Greece”, Agribusiness 19(4), s. 425-437.
  • Ardeni, P. G., Freebairn, J. (2002), “The Macroeconomics of Agriculture”, Handbook of Agricultural Economics 2, s. 1455-1485.
  • Colletaz, G., Hurlin, C. (2006), “Threshold Effects of the Public Capital Productivity: An International Panel Smooth Transition Approach”, HAL Working Paper Series, No.2006-01, http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/05 /56/ 66/PDF /dr 2006_01 colletaz_ hurlin.pdf, 28.08.2009.
  • Fouquau, J., Hurlin, C., Rabaud, I. (2008), “The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach”, Economic Modelling 25, s. 284–299.
  • Furlong, F., Ingenito, R. (1996), “Commodity Prices and Inflation”, FRBSF Economic Review 2, s. 27-47.
  • Gonzalez, A., Terasvirta, T., van Dijk, D. (2005), “Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model and an Application to Investment Under Credit Constraint”, Working Paper in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics, Vol. 64.
  • Grennes, T., Lapp, J.S. (1986), “Neutrality of Inflation in the Agricultural Sector”, Journal of International Money and Finance 5, s. 231-243.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1999), “Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing and Inference”, Journal of Econometrics 93, s. 345-368.
  • Kyrtsou, C. (2007), “Nonlinear Features of Comovements Between Commodity Prices and Inflation”, Fstschrift Smposium for Wlter C. Labys, Agricultural and Resource Economics, May 7, 2007, West Virginia University, USA, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=996000, 11.10.2008.
  • Kyrtsou, C., Labys, W. C. (2006), “Evidence for Chaotic Dependence between US Inflation and Commodity Prices”, Journal of Macroeconomics 28, s. 256–266.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Şaban (2010), Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma, Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kayseri.
  • OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development) (2009), Agricultural Polices in OECD Countries: Monitoring and Evaluation 2009, OECD Publishing, Rome.
  • Reziti, I. (2005), “The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Relative Price Variability in Greek Agriculture”, International Advances in Economic Research 11, s. 111–119.
  • Starleaf, D. R., Meyers, W. H., Womack, A. W. (1985), “The Impact of Inflation on the Real Income of U.S. Farmers”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 67(2), s. 384-389
  • Tabakis, N. M. (2001), “A Multivariate Model for the Relationship between Agricultural Prices and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence Using Greek Data”, Agricultural Economics Review 2(1), s. 28-38.
  • Terasvirta, T. and Anderson H.M., (1992), “Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics 7, s. 119–S136
  • Terasvirta, T., Tjostheim D. and Granger C.W.J., (1994), Modelling Non- linear Economic Time Series, Oxford University Press, USA.
  • Tweeten, L. G. (1980), “An Economic Investigation into Inflation Pass- through to the Farm Sector”, Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 5, s. 89-106.
  • Voyiatsiz, A., Pallis, D., Katsouli, E. (2002), “Causality between Food Prices and Other Goods Prices: Evidence from the EU-member States, Agricultural Economics Review 3(2), s. 61-70.
  • Zanias, G. P. (1998), “Inflation, Agricultural Prices and Economic Convergence in Greece”, European Review of Agricultural Economics 25, s. 29-39.
Toplam 20 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Bülent Güloğlu Bu kişi benim

Şaban Nazlioglu Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ocak 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

ISNAD Güloğlu, Bülent - Nazlioglu, Şaban. “Enflasyonun Tarımsal Fiyatlar Üzerindeki Etkileri: Panel Yumuşak Geçiş Regresyon Analizi”. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 1/1 (Ocak 2013), 1-20.