AVRUPA’DA YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ KAYNAKLARININ FOSİL YAKIT İTHALATI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN GRANGER NEDENSELLİK VE TODA-YAMAMOTO YÖNTEMLERİ İLE ANALİZİ

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 254 - 267, 20.06.2022

Sabina Karimova

Öz

Bu çalışma, Avrupa’da 1965 sonrası 54 yıllık dönemde yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının fosil yakıt ithalata etkisini yıllık veriler kullanarak, bir Vektör Otoregressif Model (VAR) çerçevesinde irdelemektedir. Yenilenebilir enerji ve fosil yakıt ithalatı ilişkisinin uzun vadede hareket edip etmeyeceği ve değişkenler arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olup olmadığı bu çalışmanın temel soruları. Elde edilen Engle-Granger ve Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme testlerinin sonuçları iki seri arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki var olduğunu gösterirken, hem Granger nedensellik testi hem de Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafından geliştirilen Granger nedensellik yöntemine göre yenilenebilir enerjiden fosil yakıt ithalata doğru ve fosil yakıttan yenilenebilir enerjiye doğru nedensellik bir ilişkinin olmadığı tespit edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları,, Fosil yakıt ithalatı,, Avrupa,, Granger Nedensellik Testi,, Toda-Yamamoto yöntemi.

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ON FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTS IN EUROPE BY GRANGER CAUSALITY AND TODA-YAMAMOTO METHODS

Öz

This study examines the impact of renewable energy sources on fossil fuel imports in Europe in the 54 years after 1965, using annual data within the framework of a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The main questions of this study are whether the relationship between renewable energy and fossil fuel import will move in the long run and whether there is a causal relationship between them. While the results of Engle-Granger and Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests show that there is a long-term relationship between the two series, according to the Granger causality test and the Granger causality method developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), it is determined that there is no causal relationship between renewable energy and fossil fuel imports.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Renewable enerjy sources,, Fossil fuel import,, Europe,, Granger causality test,, Toda-Yamamoto method.

Kaynakça

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