Türk Lise Öğrencilerinin Mesleki Eğilimlerini Tahmin Etme: Farklı Makine Öğrenmesi Yöntemlerinin Yeni Bir Eğitim Verisi Üzerinde Karşılaştırılması

Öz

21. yüzyılda makine öğrenmesi (MÖ) uygulamalarının kullanıldığı alanların sayısı giderek artmaktadır. Eğitim, MÖ kullanımının son zamanlarda yaygınlaştığı alanlardan biridir. Günümüzde eğitim sistemindeki veriler devasa boyutlara ulaşmıştır. Bu verilerden anlamlı veri setleri oluşturulabilir ve bu veri setleri MÖ yöntemleri yardımıyla işlenebilir. Bununla birlikte, birçok çalışmada kullanılan veri setleri, öğrenciler veya öğretmenlerle yapılan ve tartışmalı/öznel veriler içeren anketlere dayanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada ise, 2014-2020 yılları arasında mezun olan öğrencilerin ders notları, mezuniyet yılları ve cinsiyet bilgilerini içeren 4 yıllık bir lisenin gerçek verilerinden yeni bir veri seti oluşturulmaktadır. Veri setindeki özellikler ile bu öğrencilerin kazandıkları üniversite bölümleri arasındaki ilişkiler dikkate alınmakta ve veriler üzerinde MÖ modelleri eğitilerek öğrencilerin mesleki eğilimlerinin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Öğrencilerin kazandığı bölümlerin yer aldığı veri setinde sınıflandırma için çok sayıda farklı bölüm olduğundan, ilgili bölümleri ve meslekleri aynı sınıflandırma etiketi altında gruplandıran bir etiket gruplama yöntemiyle 3 ek veri seti daha oluşturulmaktadır. Sonrasında bu veri setleri için farklı MÖ modelleri eğitilerek analiz edilmektedir. Ayrıca, bu modellerden başarılı sonuç üreten 6 tanesi ile bir çoğunluk oylama yöntemi önerilmektedir. Sonuç olarak performans değerlendirmesi için; eğitim doğruluğu, Cohen puanı, F1 puanı ve test doğruluğu olmak üzere 4 farklı değerlendirme kriteri kullanılmaktadır. Bulgular, oluşturulan yeni eğitim veri seti için farklı MÖ yöntemleri ele alınarak sunulmakta ve tartışılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, klasik makine öğrenmesi yöntemleri kullanıldığında %75’e kadar tahmin doğruluğu elde edilirken, bu makine öğrenmesi yöntemleri kullanılarak geliştirilen çoğunluk oylama yöntemiyle başarım %80’e yaklaşmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Veri seti oluşturma
• eğitim
• makine öğrenmesi
• mesleki eğilim tahmini

Vocational Tendency Prediction of Turkish High School Students: Comparison of Different Machine Learning Methods on a Novel Educational Data

Öz

In the 21st century, the number of areas where machine learning (ML) applications have emerged is gradually increasing. Education is one of the areas where the use of ML has spread, recently. The data in the education system has reached gigantic sizes. Hence, meaningful datasets can be created and processed with the help of ML methods. However, many studies still consult for questionnaires made on students or teachers that produce controversial and subjective data. In this study, a novel dataset is created from real-world data of a 4-year high school, including course grades, graduation years and gender information of the students graduated between 2014-2020. It is aimed to predict vocational tendency of students by designing ML models on past data considering the relationships between the attributes in the dataset and the university departments enrolled. Moreover, since there is a huge number of different departments for classification, 3 additional datasets are also constructed by a label grouping method that groups related departments and professions into the same classification label. Then, different ML models are trained on these datasets and analyzed. Additionally, a majority voting method is proposed by using 6 of these models producing successful results. As a result, the performance of these methods is evaluated according to 4 different evaluation criteria, including training accuracy, Cohen score, F1 score and test accuracy. The findings are presented and discussed by addressing the availability of different ML methods for such a novel educational dataset constructed. According to the findings, a prediction accuracy is achieved up to 75% when classical machine learning methods are applied, and the prediction approaches 80% with the majority voting method constructed by using these machine learning methods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dataset construction
• education
• machine learning
• vocational tendency prediction

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